This report is for professional investors and information purposes only. Persons without professional investment experience should not rely on it. Not investment advice or a personal recommendation. Cryptoassets are high risk and volatile and you may lose all capital invested. See full risk information at the end of this document.
- Performance: Cryptoassets delivered clear outperformance vs. traditional assets (e.g. US equities and gold), driven primarily by strong institutional inflows (+92.9k BTC over 30 days) combined with declining on-chain selling pressure (–14.9k BTC) - a dynamic that has contributed to a reduction in near-term selling pressure, though downside risks remain.
- Cryptoasset Sentiment Index: The Cryptoasset Sentiment Index continues to rise and now signals decisively bullish investor sentiment, reinforcing the constructive market backdrop and supporting the recent price recovery.
- Chart-of-the-week: The key takeaway is the divergence between accelerating institutional demand and fading on-chain outflows, which has stabilised bitcoin and mitigated downside pressure; a decisive break above key cost-basis levels (~$80k) could mark the transition into a more sustained recovery phase.
Chart of the Week
Both series shown as 1-month change in BTC
Institutional Demand - Global ETPs + Treasury Companies
Performance
Last week, cryptoassets outperformed other traditional assets such as US equities or gold by a very wide margin. One of the key performance drivers is institutional demand via bitcoin ETPs and treasury companies.
More specifically, over the past 30 days, institutional investors have purchased around +92.9k BTC. At the same time, on-chain selling pressure has gradually receded with only -14.9k BTC in realized cap changes (i.e. on-chain capital flows) over the past 30 days as well. In other words, institutional demand has accelerated while on-chain capital outflows have decelerated over a 1-month period. This has significantly mitigated downside pressure on bitcoin (chart-of-the-week).
Market participants may focus on key on-chain price levels this week to assess the sustainability of the current recovery. One of the key reasons is that major cost bases reside around the $80k price mark such as the US spot bitcoin ETF costs basis or the short-term holder cost basis – we will analyse these pricing levels in more detail in our upcoming edition of the Bitcoin Macro Investor as well (scheduled for the 1st of May 2026).
A sustained move above these levels could, in one analytical scenario, indicate improving investor profitability dynamics and a potential shift toward recovery.
However, macro risks remain especially because the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively ‘closed' as of this morning. Based on real-time data provided by Bloomberg, only two maritime commercial vessels have crossed the strait over the past 24 hours. The risk is that governments may start to impose stricter demand curbs to deal with the energy crisis. The IEA has just recently warned that jet fuel stockpiles in Europe could run out over the next 6 weeks which is also corroborated by high-frequency data.
This may severely impair economic activity ahead of tourist season in the summer and cause additional volatility. Generally speaking, declining economic activity tends to be headwind for bitcoin due to a concordant decline in risk appetite. Bitcoin tends to exhibit a procyclical behaviour with respect to the (global) business cycle – bull markets tend to be associated with business cycle upturns and bear markets tend to be associated with business cycle downturns.
That being said, as pointed out in our Bitcoin Macro Investor report, based on our internal quantitative models, a significant portion of current negative macro factors may already be reflected in bitcoin 's price, which could - in that analytical framework - reduce further downside.
Besides, the ECB is scheduled to decide on interest rates in the Eurozone on Thursday this week. Although markets anticipate no change based on money market futures, the ECB's forward guidance will be a key focus this time due to the rise in inflation amid the ongoing supply energy crunch caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure.
In general, among the top 10 crypto assets Dogecoin, Bitcoin, and Hyperliquid were the relative outperformers. Ethereum underperformed bitcoin last week.
Sentiment
Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” continues to rise and now signals decisively bullish investor sentiment, reinforcing the constructive market backdrop and supporting the recent price recovery.
At the moment, 11 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.
Last week, the Crypto Fear and Greed, Crypto ETP Fund Flows, Crypto Dispersion, BTC Long Futures Liquidation Dominance, BTC Put-Call Volume, BTC Exchange Inflows, BTC STH SOPR, BTC STH NUPL, BTC 1m IV, BTC 1M 25 Delta Skew, and Cross Asset Risk Appetite showed positive momentum.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index improved significantly to the “neutral” level of sentiment as of this morning, rising to the highest level since mid-January 2026. This is in line with crypto outperformance and strong ETP Fund Flows.
Performance dispersion among cryptoassets increased last week to 0.41, as the gaming sector outperformed, led by Axie Infinity.
When dispersion increases, it may indicate that the market appears to be driven by a more diverse set of narratives which, in our analysis, has historically been associated with periods of increasing risk appetite in prior market cycles.
Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin decreased 5%-points last week, with 30% of our tracked altcoins in the index outperforming. However, Ethereum underperformed Bitcoin.
This is not incongruent with higher performance dispersion. This indicates that Bitcoin outperformed altcoins, however, altcoins still performed better than last week. Together, this depicts stronger and more widespread momentum across the crypto landscape.
Sentiment in traditional financial markets as measured by our in-house measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) increased one point to 0.71 over the past week, signalling a broadly unchanged but still optimistic outlook in traditional financial markets. This coincides with Bitcoin's outperformance with stronger altcoin momentum as investors increase their bias toward riskier assets.
CME Bitcoin Commercials Net Positioning, which shows the difference between long and short CME Bitcoin futures contracts increased from -8.36 to –8.77 suggesting the concentration of short positioning increased week-over-week, despite Bitcoin's outperformance. Although slightly reduced from prior levels, short positioning remains historically elevated and arguably crowded, which could lead to increased volatility if the negative net positioning were to reverse.
Fund Flows
Global crypto ETPs saw large net inflows last week across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Altcoins Ex-ETH products. Although basket and thematic products saw net outflows.
Global crypto ETPs saw around +1024.7 mn USD in weekly net inflows across most types of cryptoassets, after +1270.8 mn USD in net inflows the previous week.
Global Bitcoin ETPs have experienced net inflows totalling +873.6 mn USD last week, of which +773 mn USD in net inflows were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) in the US experienced net outflows, totalling –13.7 mn USD last week.
In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) experienced net inflows equivalent to +2.2 mn USD, as the Bitwise Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) experienced net inflows of +6.9 mn USD.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) posted net outflows of –59 mn USD and the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) experienced net inflows of around +732.9 mn USD last week.
Meanwhile, global Ethereum ETPs also experienced +137.5 mn USD in net inflows last week, of which US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net inflows of around +94.1 mn USD on aggregate.
The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) posted net outflows of -49.2 mn USD, whereas the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) that experienced +138 mn USD of net inflows.
The Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW) in the US experienced net outflows of –1.3 mn USD.
In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) experienced net outflows last week of -0.5 mn USD, as the Bitwise Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) saw +0.8 mn USD of net inflows.
Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum experienced net inflows of +23.2 mn USD last week.
Thematic & basket crypto ETPs posted net outflows of -9.7 mn USD on aggregate last week. The Bitwise MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) experienced net inflows of +0.7 mn.
On-Chain Data
Following a positive week of price action, Bitcoin reached a high of $79.5k but has since faced resistance around the $78k level, with price consolidating near this zone since the initial breakout.
This is notable as the Short-Term Holder cost basis (STH-CB) at $80k, representing the average acquisition price of newer market participants, and the True Market Mean (TMM) at $79k, reflecting the average cost basis of active investors, both reside within this region. As highlighted in previous editions, these levels have historically acted as key thresholds that must be reclaimed and held for momentum to re-establish.
Additionally, the average ETF inflow cost basis sits within this same cluster, further underscoring the homogeneity of market participants at present. Whether new, average, or ETF-based investors, the majority of participants are responding to similar unrealised profit and loss dynamics.
Exchange Spot Volume Delta remains positive at approximately +$145mn. The metric continues to oscillate around equilibrium, shifting between positive and negative territory, suggesting a degree of market indecision.
Furthermore, total exchange inflows and outflows, which can be considered a proxy for investor engagement, have remained elevated at around $4.6bn, broadly in line with last week's reading. This suggests a sustained improvement in investor activity, likely supported by recent positive price action. However, this trend remains in its early stages and would require continued strength to signal a more durable shift in behaviour.
Aggregate investor stress remains elevated but has moderated to its lowest level since early February. Presently, the value of invested capital held at a loss is approximately $718bn (66% of all value invested). This indicates that a substantial share of deployed capital remains underwater, with only 36% of trading days recording a higher proportion of capital in loss.
Profit- and loss-taking dynamics continue to trend toward equilibrium, with Net Realised Profit/Loss narrowing from approximately –$120mn to –$70mn, its least negative reading since late January. With net capital flows largely offsetting each other, the market appears to be at a point of rest from a liquidity perspective, with neither a profit- nor loss-driven regime emerging. This equilibrium reflects investor indecision within the current range, further reinforced by price behaviour around the $78k level. Historically, similar periods of indecision have tended to precede increases in volatility as the market moves to establish a clearer directional trend, although the timing remains uncertain.
This dynamic is further reflected in the Sell-Side Risk Ratio, which measures the intensity of capital flows across the network by comparing the combined profit and loss locked-in to the total invested capital. At present, only 4.1% of trading days have recorded a lower reading, reinforcing that capital flows remain limited and liquidity conditions are tight. Historically, such periods of subdued activity have been associated with more fragile market structures and can precede heightened bouts of volatility.
Additionally, when assessing the average profit or loss realised across Short-Term Holders, Long-Term Holders, and the broader market, all cohorts are currently transacting near breakeven. This suggests that participants with typically distinct behavioural profiles are acting in synchrony, which, somewhat counterintuitively, reflects a high degree of market uncertainty.
Bitcoin continues to dominate market structure, with correlation and beta percentiles (180-day) across the altcoin complex remaining extremely elevated at 97% and 99%, respectively, indicating a predominantly single-factor environment centred on Bitcoin.
The dominant market theme at present is equilibrium. This is reflected across multiple facets of the market, including price converging on investor cost-basis, profit and loss flows largely offsetting, both short- and long-term holders exhibiting similar behavioural patterns, and Bitcoin dominating the broader digital asset market structure. Such conditions suggest the market is at a point of rest, often near a boundary or threshold where uncertainty tends to increase. Historically, similar regimes of equilibrium have preceded heightened bouts of volatility.
Futures, Options & Perpetuals
Over the past week, BTC perpetual futures open interest declined by approximately -11.24k BTC, while CME futures open interest was broadly flat versus the prior week. That combination suggests some leverage was taken out of offshore perpetuals, while positioning in more institutionally oriented venues remained steady. Aggregate futures liquidations also cooled from the prior week's elevated levels. In total, liquidations reached roughly $2.05bn over the week, versus $3.05bn previously, with long liquidations of $0.99bn and short liquidations of $1.01bn.
Against a backdrop of no renewed escalation in the Iran-US conflict and ten consecutive days of positive ETF inflows, BTC rallied as high as $79.5k, clearing liquidity pockets in the $78k to $79k area and driving a wave of short liquidations. Price has since settled into a $75k to $80k range as investors wait for further developments on the Iran-US war. Liquidity is now forming around $75k to $76k on the downside and $80k on the upside, giving the market a relatively tight range to trade against in the near term.
Perpetual funding rates, measured on a 7-day moving average, fell to their lowest levels in six months. That suggests futures positioning remained notably cautious despite the rally, with the move higher in spot failing to generate a sustained build in aggressive long exposure.
At the same time, the BTC 3-month annualised basis ticked down to around 1.83%. That leaves the futures curve even flatter than a week ago, reinforcing the view that the market is still not pricing in a strong bullish impulse over the next few months.
In options markets, BTC Deribit options open interest declined by roughly -69k BTC, bringing total open interest down to 347.8k BTC. The Deribit put-to-call open interest ratio decreased slightly to 0.66, while the equivalent metric across IBIT options moved up to 0.66 by week's end.
Taken together, these moves suggest downside protection demand eased somewhat in crypto-native options markets, even as positioning in IBIT options became a little more balanced. The drop in open interest points to lighter overall exposure, while the modest shift in put-to-call ratios does not yet suggest a strong directional conviction either way.
The 25-delta skew was mixed across the curve during the week, rising slightly on the 1-month and 6-month tenors while moving lower at the front end. That points to a market where near-term downside protection became somewhat cheaper, even as medium-dated hedging demand firmed modestly.
Total GEX, on a 7-day moving average basis, declined from $4.0bn to $2.6bn. This suggests dealer positioning has become lighter again, reducing the scale of hedging flows that might otherwise amplify spot moves. In practical terms, the market may now be somewhat less mechanically reactive than it was a week ago.
Dealer gamma exposure also remains predominantly negative, with the bulk of negative gamma now clustered around the $82k strike. That leaves the market most sensitive to a breakout higher toward that level. By contrast, positive gamma has shifted further up to the $84k to $85k area, suggesting any stabilising dealer flows now sit meaningfully above current spot levels.
Bottom Line
- Performance: Cryptoassets delivered clear outperformance vs. traditional assets (e.g. US equities and gold), driven primarily by strong institutional inflows (+92.9k BTC over 30 days) combined with declining on-chain selling pressure (–14.9k BTC) - a dynamic that has contributed to a reduction in near-term selling pressure, though downside risks remain.
- Cryptoasset Sentiment Index: The Cryptoasset Sentiment Index continues to rise and now signals decisively bullish investor sentiment, reinforcing the constructive market backdrop and supporting the recent price recovery.
- Chart-of-the-week: The key takeaway is the divergence between accelerating institutional demand and fading on-chain outflows, which has stabilised bitcoin and mitigated downside pressure; a decisive break above key cost-basis levels (~$80k) could mark the transition into a more sustained recovery phase.
Appendix
Data subject to change
Combined positioning = futures and options in % of Ol
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