Bitcoin’s Final Macro Hurdle: Bond Stress, Midterms and the Waiting Game

André Dragosch, PhD Director, Head of Research — Europe

Luke Deans Senior Research Associate

André Dragosch, PhD Director, Head of Research — Europe

Luke Deans Senior Research Associate

Overview

Chart of the Month6 Macro Environment7 On-Chain Developments11 Bottom Line27 Important Information46

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This report is for professional investors and information purposes only. Retail customers should not rely on it. Not investment advice or a personal recommendation. Cryptoassets are high risk and volatile and you may lose all capital invested. Please see full risk information at the end of this document.

Macro: Bitcoin remains in wait-and-see mode as the negative trifecta of tighter financial conditions, elevated inflation and mounting concerns over the AI trade continues to weigh on global markets, and downside risks will likely stay elevated in the short term as long as the repricing of global growth expectations has not been completed. That said, Bitcoin’s relative resilience amid the AI rout - supported by declining long-term bond yields and ongoing capital rotation into Bitcoin ETPs at the expense of semiconductor and gold ETFs - reinforces our main thesis that any significant growth repricing will ultimately entail a positive monetary policy response and a pivot by major central banks. In the meantime, central banks remain on a collision course with financial markets, while the upcoming midterm elections appear to be of secondary importance for cryptoassets compared to these macro factors.
On-Chain: Bitcoin remains centred around its $83k-$85k economic midpoint, with investor profitability, realised activity and key pricing levels all pointing to an unusually balanced market. At the same time, realised and implied volatility remain historically compressed. This combination suggests equilibrium is becoming increasingly fragile, with the potential for a larger move once that balance is disturbed.

Chart of the Month

Macro Environment

Bitcoin and cryptoassets continue to be in a wait-and-see mode. In fact, bitcoin has been trading in a tight trading range between $80k and $87k for the majority of October despite the increasing volatility in traditional financial markets.

Global financial markets are still being affected by the negative trifecta of tighter financial conditions, elevated commodity prices and inflation, as well as mounting concerns over the AI trade.

As far as the AI trade is concerned, the key concern centres around the growing gap between debt levels and future revenues to service that debt. For instance, TS Lombard cites estimates that AI would need to generate roughly $2.5–3.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2030 to justify the capital currently being deployed. Enterprise AI revenue today is estimated at only around $200 billion, leaving a substantial gap to close, and one that widens further if capex continues to accelerate.

This gap is, in our view, the source of the recent repricing of credit risk. Markets appear to be questioning whether these revenue targets can be achieved over the medium term, which helps explain why credit spreads have begun to widen.

At its core, the issue is a timing mismatch: capital is being committed today against revenues that may take considerably longer to arrive due to the nascency of the technology and lagging demand.

Although a temporary relief rally in AI stocks and the global stock market from recent oversold levels appears to be quite likely, we still expect both macro and industry-specific headwinds to persist.

Major hyperscalers such as Oracle and Coreweave have seen new all-time highs in their respective Credit Default Swaps (CDS) – a tradable contract to insure against the default of their corporate bonds. As far as Coreweave is concerned, the 5-year CDS contract already implies a default probability of almost ~60% over the next 5 years. Other CDS from major semiconductor companies such as Nvidia or Broadcom have also reached new cycle highs.

Tighter financial conditions are generally showing up in rising high yield bond spreads. For instance, CCC-high yield bond spreads have increased to their highest level since 2022. Meanwhile, Franco-German 10-year spread has widened to the highest level since 2012 signalling a global tightening in financial conditions that is affecting all kinds of markets.

We have been arguing in our previous Bitcoin Macro Investor report already that the current degree of tightening is comparable with the post-Covid tightening era in 2022/23.

This can be seen in the sharp decline in our monetary policy expectations indicator below which is based on our own macro factor model. This is also consistent with our previously made observation that most major central banks are in “hiking mode”, i.e. have conducted more hikes than cuts over the past 6 months.

The tightening in monetary policy still warrants a stronger repricing of global growth expectations to the downside as mentioned in our previous report as well. Although there has been a repricing growth expectations already, it doesn’t appear to be fully completed, yet:

We think that tighter monetary policy expectations could hit the US economy in two major ways – via a slowdown in housing and manufacturing. The latest releases in leading housing indicators like pending home sales and the NAHB housing market index already suggests that higher mortgage rates are negatively affecting housing market activity in the US. We expect that tighter financial conditions will also start to show up in manufacturing PMIs over the coming months.

It is worth noting that if both housing and manufacturing experienced a contraction simultaneously, it would strongly suggest a US recession. In fact, historically speaking, a simultaneous contraction in industrial production and construction was always associated with a US recession since the 1970s – without exception.

→ The important takeaway for Bitcoin is that as long as this repricing in global growth expectations has not occurred, downside risks for Bitcoin will likely stay elevated in the short term.

Nonetheless, our main thesis for Bitcoin remains that any significant growth repricing will likely entail a positive monetary policy response and ultimately a pivot by major central banks.

What is more is that the recent decline in US long-term government bond yields in reaction to the stock market rout could already signal that the market is anticipating easier financial conditions at the margin. The 10-year US Treasury yield has recently declined below 5% again after having reached almost 5.4% in early October.

This might explain why Bitcoin has continued to be relatively resilient in October considering the recent market rout in AI stocks (see our weekly report here).

Apart from a repricing in monetary policy expectations, another possible explanation for the relative resilience of Bitcoin amid the AI rout can be found in relative fund flows.

Since mid- 2026, more capital has flown into global Bitcoin ETPs than in semiconductor ETFs. Bitcoin ETPs have also attracted more capital than global Gold ETPs in 2026 on a relative basis.

Ongoing capital rotation may support bitcoin’s relative strength against both equities and gold.
Note that Bitcoin has been outperforming US equities since June and gold since February already.

That said, major central banks remain on a collision course with financial markets. At the time of writing this report in late October, Fed Funds Futures still price in a ~90% chance of another Fed rate hike until year end. The global hiking continues to signal a sharp deceleration in global semiconductor sales – a chart that we have shown repeatedly in previous report already:

Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz still remains effectively closed with low single-digit tanker crossings on a daily basis. This will continue to exert upside pressure on global energy prices, especially via lower inventories of distillates like gasoline and Diesel that are in much shorter supply than crude oil. It is worth highlighting that the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has recently hit a 44-year low – this implies that global crude oil markets still remain in supply deficit which necessitates these SPR releases in the first place. Hence, inflation rates will likely stay elevated as well which is also suggested by other macro variables:

High-frequency indicators of US inflation are also signalling accelerating inflation rates over the coming months. Note that Trueflation’s real-time inflation gauge tends to lead headline CPI inflation by around 2-3 months.

As far as industry-specific headwinds are concerned, the combination of growing demand for AI compute combined with the fact that token prices have continued to deflate has led to a stagnation of revenues among major AI labs.

In particular, Anthropic’s annualised revenue (ARR) has been stagnating since August 2026 increasing worries about the sustainability of their business model. It is quite likely that Chinese LLM competition and ongoing technological progress will lead to continued token price deflation among the US frontier labs - primarily OpenAI and Anthropic - which would affect the whole AI supply-chain negatively (i.e. AI labs, hyperscalers, semiconductor companies). This adds additional pressure on the credit risk topic mentioned above.

Besides, another key catalyst in November for Bitcoin could be the $5,000 stimulus cheques promised by Trump tied to a victory in the midterm elections.

However, at the time of writing this report, Polymarket odds imply a Democratic sweep of both the House and the Senate with a 67% probability so a distribution of those stimulus cheques appears to be unlikely at this point.

Our own quantitative analyses suggest that there is no significant statistical influence of these Midterm-election odds on the performance of major cryptoassets so far. So, it appears as if other macro factors are playing a larger role than the upcoming midterm elections. That said, it is interesting to see that crypto market seem to prefer a split balance of power (R Senate & D House) over a Democrat Sweep judging by their respective performance beta to these relative election odds. However, we reiterate that these sensitivities are not statistically significant.

Initial preliminary election results will start rolling in from 7 pm ET on the 3rd of November later this week.

Bottom Line: Bitcoin remains in wait-and-see mode as the negative trifecta of tighter financial conditions, elevated inflation and mounting concerns over the AI trade continues to weigh on global markets, and downside risks will likely stay elevated in the short term as long as the repricing of global growth expectations has not been completed. That said, Bitcoin’s relative resilience amid the AI rout - supported by declining long-term bond yields and ongoing capital rotation into Bitcoin ETPs at the expense of semiconductor and gold ETFs - reinforces our main thesis that any significant growth repricing will ultimately entail a positive monetary policy response and a pivot by major central banks. In the meantime, central banks remain on a collision course with financial markets, while the upcoming midterm elections appear to be of secondary importance for cryptoassets compared to these macro factors.

On-Chain Developments

A Market at Rest

Despite a challenging macro backdrop characterised by geopolitical escalation, weakness across AI-related equities and renewed pressure in energy markets, Bitcoin has experienced remarkably limited downside. Drawdowns during the current recovery have generally been shallower than those observed during comparable early bull-market phases in previous cycles. The initial recovery from the 2022 bear market provides the closest historical comparison, but even against that backdrop, Bitcoin’s resilience remains notable.

Alongside this drawdown resilience, the average trading day for Bitcoin has remained remarkably uneventful. When assessing the typical magnitude of daily price moves across one-, two- and three-month horizons, current readings sit towards the lower end of their historical distributions.

Bitcoin is therefore experiencing a combination of subdued price movement and limited downside, with weakness generally absorbed before developing into the deeper corrections seen in earlier cycles.

This pattern is not entirely unusual during early bull-market phases. Historically, these periods have often been characterised by long stretches of relatively uneventful trading, punctuated by a comparatively small number of outsized moves. Most days contribute relatively little to the broader trend, while occasional large positive and negative sessions account for a disproportionate share of overall performance.

The contrast becomes even more striking when Bitcoin is viewed alongside other major markets. Across the volatility measures we track, Bitcoin currently ranks towards the bottom of its own 10-year historical distribution, while assets including oil, semiconductor equities, sovereign bonds and major equity indices are experiencing considerably more elevated volatility relative to their respective histories.

Taken together, the picture is less one of outright speculative enthusiasm and more one of underlying resilience. Investors appear increasingly willing to absorb weakness and maintain exposure, limiting the depth and persistence of drawdowns, but this demand has not yet translated into a broader volatility expansion.

The result is a Bitcoin market behaving unusually quietly relative to traditional assets, despite the elevated volatility occurring elsewhere.

Finding the Middle

One of the main reasons for the recent lack of directional movement appears to be a broader degree of investor indecision. Through an on-chain lens, Bitcoin is currently trading close to what we view as the market’s economic midpoint.

One useful way to measure this is through the 50% threshold for invested capital in profit, which represents the price level at which half of invested capital would sit in profit and half at a loss. At present, this level sits near $84k, with Bitcoin continuing to oscillate around it without establishing a sustained break higher.

The second measure looks at the same question from a different perspective, the share of Bitcoin supply held in profit. Whereas the previous metric weights outcomes by the amount of USD capital invested, Percent Supply in Profit treats each coin equally, regardless of whether the unrealised gain is $1 or $10,000.

Despite this methodological difference, the mean value for the Percent Supply in Profit also sits near $85k.

Finally, the last factor we assess is the degree of economic stress still embedded across investor portfolios. For this, we use Unrealised Loss per Percent Drawdown. As Bitcoin’s market capitalisation grows, the absolute value of unrealised losses would naturally be expected to increase across cycles. To make these periods more comparable, we normalise unrealised losses, measured in BTC terms, by the percentage decline from the all-time high.

What is most notable is the speed at which investor balance sheets have recovered. The metric has now moved back into the band between its long-term mean and median, which we view as a transition zone between bear-market stress and a more mature bull-market regime. It has stopped just short of moving below the median, a threshold that has historically been associated with a transition towards more euphoric bull-market conditions

Once again, this interaction brings the $83k-$84k region into focus. The repeated interplay with this threshold reinforces its importance as a key dividing line between the market’s current equilibrium phase and a broader expansion in investor profitability.

Committing to a Decision

One side effect of prolonged investor indecision is the potential for volatility to build beneath the surface. Price remains the ultimate expression of supply and demand, with the prevailing spot price representing the level at which those forces are currently balanced. By measuring the percentage range between Bitcoin’s rolling 30-day, 60-day and 90-day highs and lows, we can quantify how tightly price has compressed across different horizons.

30-Day Range: 1.8%
60-Day Range: 3.0%
90-Day Range: 23.8%

The particularly narrow short-term readings highlight how tightly price has compressed around the market’s economic midpoint. Historically, similarly subdued price action has often preceded a subsequent expansion in volatility as the balance between supply and demand is disturbed.

A similar phenomenon is visible in the options market, which provides the clearest forward-looking measure of expected volatility. Here, the signal is less one of indecision and more one of a relatively strong consensus. Across the term structure, at-the-money implied volatility sits near the bottom of its respective three-year distributions, suggesting that options markets are pricing comparatively little future volatility over the coming months.

1W ATM IV Percentile: 4.7%
1M ATM IV Percentile: 8.3%
3M ATM IV Percentile: 0.8%
6M ATM IV Percentile: 0.2%

One-week and one-month implied volatility rank in just the 4.7th and 8.3rd percentiles of their three-year histories, while three- and six-month volatility sit at the 0.8th and 0.2nd percentiles respectively. Typically, similar compression across the curve has often preceded an expansion in realised volatility. The signal remains direction agnostic, but the potential for a larger move may be greater than current volatility expectations imply.

To gauge the magnitude of investor exhaustion, we can utilise the Sell-Side Risk Ratio, which measures the magnitude of realised profit and loss relative to the asset’s invested capital base.

Elevated values indicate that coins are being spent at significant profit or loss, typically during emotionally charged events, and are usually observed around periods of heavy volatility as the market searches for a new equilibrium.
Conversely, low values reflect coins being spent close to break-even, signalling that both profit-taking and loss-taking have diminished and that the market has entered a temporarily balanced state.

Despite the market remaining in a profit-dominated spending regime, as highlighted in the previous Bitcoin Macro Investor, the magnitude of realised economic activity remains exceptionally small relative to the size of the asset class. Only 11.6% of trading days have recorded a lower Sell-Side Risk Ratio.

This reinforces the view that the market is currently in an unusually balanced state, with limited economic value being transferred at prevailing prices. In previous cycles, such conditions have often required a meaningful move away from the existing range to unlock additional supply and re-engage investor spending.

Price Pathways

While predicting the timing and direction of market turns is inherently difficult, a series of key pricing levels can help contextualise Bitcoin’s position within the broader market structure.

The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis near $76k represents the average acquisition price of newer market participants and has historically acted as an important delineator between local risk-on and risk-off conditions.
The True Market Mean near $78k estimates the average acquisition price of active investors by excluding supply considered lost or deeply dormant.
The average ETF cost basis near $83k has emerged as an increasingly important reference point following the expansion of the spot ETF complex.

Together, these levels form what we view as a broader bull-market transition band. Bitcoin has cleared the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis and True Market Mean, while continuing to oscillate around the ETF cost basis near $83k and the broader economic midpoint near $84k. A pullback into the lower part of this range would not invalidate the risk-on structure if those levels are successfully defended.

Conversely, a sustained move above the $83k-$84k region would provide stronger evidence that Bitcoin is progressing beyond the current equilibrium phase and into a broader bull-market expansion.

Finally, we can increase the granularity of the invested-capital profitability framework by looking beyond the 50% midpoint and incorporating the 30%, 40%, 60% and 70% thresholds:

30%: $73k
40%: $79k
50%: $84k
60%: $87k
70%: $94k

What is notable is the degree of confluence between these thresholds and the broader pricing framework outlined above. The 30% and 40% levels align closely with the lower transition zone, while the 50% level again converges around the $83k-$84k economic midpoint. Above spot, the 60% and 70% thresholds provide additional reference points for how market profitability could evolve if price continues higher.

These levels effectively map different degrees of investor stress and profitability across the market. As Bitcoin moves through them, the share of invested capital sitting in profit changes materially, making the market’s reaction around each threshold particularly informative.

Bottom Line: Bitcoin remains centred around its $83k-$85k economic midpoint, with investor profitability, realised activity and key pricing levels all pointing to an unusually balanced market. At the same time, realised and implied volatility remain historically compressed. This combination suggests equilibrium is becoming increasingly fragile, with the potential for a larger move once that balance is disturbed.

Bottom Line

Macro: Bitcoin remains in wait-and-see mode as the negative trifecta of tighter financial conditions, elevated inflation and mounting concerns over the AI trade continues to weigh on global markets, and downside risks will likely stay elevated in the short term as long as the repricing of global growth expectations has not been completed. That said, Bitcoin’s relative resilience amid the AI rout - supported by declining long-term bond yields and ongoing capital rotation into Bitcoin ETPs at the expense of semiconductor and gold ETFs - reinforces our main thesis that any significant growth repricing will ultimately entail a positive monetary policy response and a pivot by major central banks. In the meantime, central banks remain on a collision course with financial markets, while the upcoming midterm elections appear to be of secondary importance for cryptoassets compared to these macro factors.
On-Chain: Bitcoin remains centred around its $83k-$85k economic midpoint, with investor profitability, realised activity and key pricing levels all pointing to an unusually balanced market. At the same time, realised and implied volatility remain historically compressed. This combination suggests equilibrium is becoming increasingly fragile, with the potential for a larger move once that balance is disturbed.

Important Information

This publication constitutes a marketing communication and is provided for informational purposes only. It is intended solely for professional investors and is not suitable for retail customers distribution and reliance. It does not constitute investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

This document (which may take the form of a presentation, press release, social media post, blog article, broadcast communication or similar instrument – collectively referred to as a “Document”) is issued by Bitwise Europe GmbH (“BEU” or the “Issuer”) and has been prepared in accordance with applicable laws and regulations, including those relating to financial promotions.

Bitwise Europe GmbH, incorporated under the laws of Germany, is the issuer of the Exchange Traded Products (“ETPs”) referenced in this Document under a base prospectus and the applicable final terms, as supplemented from time to time, approved by the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin). The approval of the prospectus by BaFin relates solely to the completeness, coherence and comprehensibility of the prospectus in accordance with the Prospectus Regulation and does not constitute an endorsement, recommendation or assessment of the merits of the products.

Capital at risk. Cryptoassets are highly volatile and involve a high degree of risk. The value of investments in cryptoassets and crypto-linked ETPs may fluctuate significantly, and investors may lose part or all of their invested capital. No capital protection or guaranteed compensation mechanism applies in respect of market losses.

Any investment decision should be made on the basis of the relevant base prospectus, the applicable final terms and the key information document, in particular the section entitled “Risk Warning” The base prospectus, final terms and additional risk information are available at: www.bitwiseinvestments.eu

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For further details, please refer to the full disclaimer available at: www.bitwiseinvestments.eu/disclaimer

About Bitwise

Bitwise is one of the world’s leading crypto specialist asset managers. Thousands of financial advisors, family offices, and institutional investors across the globe have partnered with us to understand and access the opportunities in crypto. Since 2017, Bitwise has established a track record of excellence managing a broad suite of delta-one, index and active solutions across ETPs, ETFs, separately managed accounts, private funds, and hedge fund strategies, spanning both the U.S. and Europe.

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Risker med ETP:er och Kryptovalutor

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