This report is for professional investors and information purposes only. Persons without professional investment experience should not rely on it. Not investment advice or a personal recommendation. Cryptoassets are high risk and volatile and you may lose all capital invested. See full risk information at the end of this document.
- Performance: Major cryptoassets continued to outperform last week amid rising risk appetite, with ZCash, Hyperliquid, and Solana leading the top 10 and Ethereum outpacing Bitcoin while altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum recorded their biggest weekly net inflow year-to-date of around +166 mn USD.
- Cryptoasset Sentiment Index:[1] Our in-house Cryptoasset Sentiment Index recovered strongly, signalling bullish sentiment again, supported by broadening risk appetite across altcoins and the ongoing convergence of traditional and on-chain finance, underscored by the ECB’s launch of Pontes.
- Chart-of-the-Week: Our Altseason Index continues to signal an altseason, with 90% of tracked altcoins outperforming Bitcoin over the past week and 65% on a monthly basis. Historically, readings above 80% have tended to persist and coincide with further short- to medium term outperformance of major altcoins vis-à-vis BTC, although historical patterns may not necessarily repeat.
Chart of the Week
Performance
Last week, major cryptoassets like Bitcoin and Ethereum continued to outperform traditional assets like the US equities amid rising risk appetite and record flows into altcoins ex Ethereum.
Although fund flows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs stalled somewhat, ETPs tied to altcoins ex Ethereum recorded their biggest weekly net inflow year-to-date of around +166 mn USD.
In general, among the top 10 cryptoassets ZCash, Hyperliquid, and Solana were the relative outperformers. Ethereum also outperformed bitcoin last week.
In fact, our in-house altseason index has continued to signal an “altseason” – i.e. a market environment where altcoins have continued to outperform bitcoin. More specifically, 90% of our tracked basket of altcoins have outperformed bitcoin over the past week and 65% have managed to outperform bitcoin on a monthly basis (Chart-of-the-week).
*The Altseason Index measures the relative outperformance of altcoins versus Bitcoin. To align with this metric, we analysed the relative forward returns of ETH/BTC, SOL/BTC, and XRP/BTC across five distinct bands of the 1-month Altseason Index: (0% - 20%), (20% - 40%), (40% - 60%), (60% - 80%), and (80% - 100%).
For each band, we calculated average relative forward returns over six time horizons: 7 days, 14 days, 30 days, 90 days, 180 days, and 365 days.
Rising appetite for altcoins usually indicates rising risk appetite in crypto markets more broadly. A more persistent outperformance of altcoins also signals a regime where Ethereum could continue to outperform bitcoin.
If Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin in September, it would be the fourth consecutive month of outperformance in a row – last seen in May 2021 during the post-Covid bull cycle.
It is important to note that high readings of the altseason index tend to signal further outperformance over the coming months as highlighted in this report.
In other words, strong altseason index readings (>80%) tend to be persistent and exhibit strong performance momentum for major altcoins (ETH, SOL, XRP) vis-à-vis BTC over the short and medium term (up to 12 months). That said, the signal is not necessarily one-way: previous cycles have also seen sharp reversals, and the current backdrop leaves room for renewed volatility or relative underperformance, particularly if geopolitical or broader macro risks intensify.
We think that while Bitcoin continues to benefit from the revival of the “Debasement Trade” narrative, major altcoins like Ethereum benefit from a more diverse set of prominent investment narratives that are seeing renewed growth momentum such as stablecoins, real-world asset tokenization, and DeFi (Decentralized Finance).
A case in point: distributed tokenized real-world assets reached roughly $39bn in early September 2026 (source: rwa.xyz, ex-stablecoins), more than tripling from ~$12bn in mid-2025, with Ethereum settling nearly half of that value – while stablecoin supply held near record highs (~$303bn), of which around 60% sits on Ethereum.
Moreover, the ECB has launched Pontes today. It is effectively the “digital euro made available for banks” so they can effectively settle transactions with each other using tokenized assets and distributed ledger technology (DLT). It connects market DLT platforms to the Eurosystem’s existing TARGET settlement services so tokenized deals can be settled in central bank money.
It is worth reiterating that the ECB has considered major public blockchains like Ethereum or Solana for the launch of the Digital Euro in the past. The retail Digital Euro is expected to be piloted from mid-2027 onwards.
In any case, we expect the ongoing convergence of traditional finance and on-chain finance to continue to provide a possible tailwind for altcoins over the coming months.
Bottom Line: Our altseason index continues to signal a broad-based altcoin regime, with 90% of tracked altcoins outperforming Bitcoin last week and altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum posting their largest weekly net inflow year-to-date – readings above 80% have historically been persistent and supported continued outperformance of major altcoins like ETH, SOL, and XRP over the following months. While Bitcoin remains anchored by the “Debasement Trade,” Ethereum benefits from a more diverse set of accelerating narratives across stablecoins, real-world asset tokenization, and DeFi, underscored by record on-chain RWA growth and the ECB’s launch of Pontes. We expect the ongoing convergence of traditional and on-chain finance to remain a possible tailwind for altcoins over the coming months. These historical patterns provide useful context, but they should not be read as an indication that the same market dynamics will necessarily repeat.
Sentiment
Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index”[2] increased substantially to positive territory, which had bottomed in neutral territory midweek.
At the moment, 13 out of 15 indicators remain above their short-term trend.
The most notable changes were the increases in the Altseason Index, BTC Exchange Inflows, BTC Funding Rate, and BTC 1m Implied Volatility. Together, this points to increased speculation with altcoins and Bitcoin derivatives, but with propensity to sell holdings as investors bring coins onto exchange. Considering the net outflows in ETPs, the outperformance versus traditional assets is seemingly leverage driven.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained broadly flat week over week within the “Greed” Zone, after increasing from depressed mid-week levels, in line with our Sentiment Index.
Performance dispersion increased in-line with the broader rotation of spot Altcoin Ex-ETH ETP flows, such as Solana.
When dispersion increases, it may indicate that the market appears to be driven by a more diverse set of narratives which, in our analysis, has historically been associated with periods of increasing risk appetite in prior market cycles.
Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin increased from 35% to 90% of the altcoins tracked in our index. This is consistent with increasing Sentiment, Fear and Greed and strong spot ETP net inflows.
Sentiment in traditional financial markets as measured by our in-house measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) has decreased from 0.61 to 0.57 over the past week, signalling risk appetite has declined from less favourable macro conditions.
The CME Bitcoin Commercials Net Positioning metric captures the difference between long and short CME Bitcoin futures contracts. The reading has declined to –12.55% of open interest, suggesting traders have increased their short leverage amongst a less favourable macro backdrop, and reversal in flows.
Bottom Line: Sentiment rebounded sharply from midweek lows, with 13 of 15 indicators above trend and altcoin breadth widening from 35% to 90%. Rising dispersion matched the rotation into altcoin ex-ETH ETPs, notably Solana. Yet headline ETPs bled –124.9 mn USD and CARA slipped to 0.57, so the rally looks intra-crypto and leverage-driven, rather than macro-spot driven.
Fund Flows
Global crypto ETPs experienced around –124.9 mn USD in net outflows last week, across all types of cryptoassets, after –196.2 mn USD in net outflows the previous week.
Global Bitcoin ETPs experienced net outflows of –113.9 mn USD last week, of which –7 mn USD in net outflows were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) in the US experienced net outflows of –2.7 mn USD last week.
In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) experienced net outflows equivalent to –2.5 mn USD, as the Bitwise Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) experienced net inflows of around +0.6 mn USD.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) posted net outflows of –62.4 mn USD whereas, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) experienced net inflows of around +120.7 mn USD last week.
Meanwhile, global Ethereum ETPs experienced –174.2 mn USD in net outflows last week, of which US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows of around –147.8 mn USD on aggregate.
The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) posted net outflows of –31.4 mn USD, whilst the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) saw net outflows of –56 mn USD.
The Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW) in the US experienced net outflows of –33.1 mn USD last week.
In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) recorded net outflows of –0.2 mn USD, whilst the Bitwise Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) saw net outflows of –39.9 mn USD.
Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum also saw net inflows of +166.1 mn USD last week.
Thematic & basket crypto ETPs posted net outflows of –2.8 mn USD on aggregate last week. The Bitwise MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) recorded no net inflows or outflows last week.
Bottom Line: Ethereum ETPs shed –174.2 mn USD, whilst altcoins ex ETH drew +166.1 mn USD. US spot Solana ETFs took +60.7 mn USD across the week with most of it on a single session (Friday). This rotation, rather than derisking, is in line with the substantial increases in our Sentiment and Altseason Index’s.
On-Chain Data
Bitcoin rebounded sharply over the past week, reclaiming the True Market Mean near $76.7k before pushing back above $80k and into the low-$82k resistance area. However, the market has so far been unable to establish a decisive break higher, with repeated attempts stalling beneath the $82k-$83k region. While the recovery reinforces the broader improvement in market structure, sustained acceptance above this resistance zone would provide stronger confirmation of a more durable breakout.
Diving deeper, the $83k area represents a particularly strong confluence of pricing measures, combining the technical higher-high threshold, the average ETF inflow cost basis and the +1σ deviation band around the Short-Term Holder cost basis. The repeated difficulty in moving decisively through this region suggests that $83k remains the principal hurdle for the market, with a sustained reclaim providing considerably stronger evidence that the previous bear-market structure has been broken.
Bitcoin also retains a meaningful cushion before the broader constructive structure would come under pressure. The Short-Term Holder cost basis and 200-day moving average remain clustered around $70k-$72k, leaving room for a deeper retracement without necessarily undermining risk-on conditions. A pullback into this region that is successfully absorbed could help confirm these former resistance levels as support, while giving the market additional time to consolidate the gains made during August’s rapid advance.
Notably, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which measures the average profit or loss realised across coins spent on a given day, has rebounded from its equilibrium level of 1.0 and moved higher. This suggests that investors have effectively defended their cost basis. Price was tested around the level at which coins were being spent near break-even, selling was absorbed, and subsequent spending has returned to profitability. Such behaviour has historically been associated with risk-on environments, where pullbacks are absorbed and investors are increasingly able to realise profits on subsequent spending. Importantly, this pattern is evident across both Short-Term and Long-Term Holder cohorts, suggesting the improvement is broad-based rather than isolated to a single investor group.
The recent rebound has been broad-based across the market-cap spectrum, although performance remains skewed towards larger assets. Large-cap assets gained 5.0% over the past seven days, placing the move in the 79th percentile of weekly returns observed over the last three years. Mid-cap assets followed with a 3.5% advance, ranking in the 68th percentile, while small caps rose a more modest 1.7%, corresponding to the 62nd percentile. This suggests that risk appetite has improved across the asset complex, although capital continues to favour higher-liquidity, larger-cap assets.
Volume conditions remain uneven across the market, suggesting that participation breadth has not matched the breadth of price performance. Spot and futures activity remain relatively subdued, while options and DAT volumes continue to rank strongly. ETF and on-chain activity sit closer to the middle of their recent distributions. Taken together, market engagement remains healthy in selected segments, but the rally is not yet being supported by a uniform expansion in activity across all major trading venues.
| Market | 7D Sum (USD) | 1Y Percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Spot | $40.9bn | 23.2% |
| Futures | $305.0bn | 40.7% |
| Options | $41.6bn | 81.4% |
| On-chain | $33.5bn | 45.6% |
| ETF | $16.2bn | 52.7% |
| DAT | $19.2bn | 79.5% |
Interestingly, volatility conditions have begun to diverge over the past week. Front-end realised volatility has increased materially as Bitcoin experienced greater spot movement, with one-week realised volatility rising from exceptionally compressed levels into the upper half of its three-year distribution. Two-week realised volatility also increased, while longer-duration measures remain comparatively subdued. This suggests that recent price action has generated a local volatility expansion without yet developing into a broader regime shift.
| Window | Last Week | Current | 3-Year Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1w | 17.2% | 43.4% | 68th |
| 2w | 30.1% | 34.8% | 37th |
| 1m | 47.8% | 43.1% | 50th |
| 3m | 37.4% | 38.0% | 24th |
| 6m | 38.2% | 38.1% | 20th |
By contrast, implied volatility remains historically compressed and has moved lower across most of the maturity curve. Short-dated implied volatility continues to sit towards the bottom of its three-year distribution, while three- and six-month maturities remain particularly depressed. Options markets have therefore shown little evidence of repricing the recent increase in realised movement, continuing to price relatively subdued expectations for future volatility.
| Tenor | Last Week | Current | 3-Year Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1w | 35.5% | 33.8% | 13th |
| 1m | 35.4% | 34.7% | 10th |
| 3m | 38.1% | 36.9% | 3rd |
| 6m | 39.1% | 38.5% | <1st |
Taken together, the market has experienced a meaningful pickup in very short-term realised volatility without a corresponding repricing across options markets. Longer-duration realised volatility also remains historically subdued, suggesting that the broader volatility regime remains relatively compressed. If elevated spot movement persists, implied volatility may eventually need to adjust higher, although the direction of the underlying price move remains uncertain.
Futures, Options & Perpetuals
Over the past week, BTC perpetual futures open interest increased by around 15.9k BTC, or approximately 3.6%, indicating some renewed use of leverage alongside the recovery in price. However, the increase remains relatively contained by historical standards and does not point to an outsized build-up in speculative positioning. CME futures open interest also increased by around 2.4k BTC over the same period, suggesting a modest rise in institutionally oriented futures exposure. Overall, futures positioning has expanded alongside the recent move higher, but the scale of the increase remains measured rather than indicative of an aggressive leverage build-up.
Liquidations increased modestly over the past week, with approximately $2.7bn in combined long and short liquidations, up from around $2.2bn in the prior week. Despite the increase, this remains below the roughly $3bn liquidated on 19 August alone, suggesting that recent price volatility has not yet resulted in another significant forced deleveraging event.
Leverage remains concentrated around the key boundaries of the current trading range, with sizeable estimated liquidation clusters near $75k to the downside and around $82k-$83k to the upside. The distribution is relatively balanced, although the downside concentration around $75k remains somewhat larger. Importantly, these areas continue to align closely with our established pricing framework, with the lower cluster sitting near the True Market Mean and the upper cluster coinciding with the $82k-$83k resistance zone. This convergence between leveraged positioning and the broader market structure reinforces these areas as the principal near-term inflection zones.
Perpetual funding rates, measured on a seven-day moving average, ended the week positive at approximately 6.2% annualised, rising from around 5% a week earlier. However, funding remains relatively contained and does not yet suggest an excessive build-up in speculative positioning. Overall, the move is consistent with a somewhat firmer long bias, but leverage conditions remain measured rather than stretched.
Across options markets, BTC open interest on major exchanges increased by around 22.5k BTC over the past week, or approximately 4.5%, pointing to a moderate expansion in options positioning alongside the recent recovery in price. The put-to-call open interest ratio across major crypto-native exchanges remained broadly stable at 0.57, suggesting little change in the relative concentration of put and call positioning. By contrast, the equivalent ratio across IBIT options eased slightly to 0.71 from 0.73. While IBIT therefore continues to exhibit a higher relative concentration of puts than crypto-native venues, the latest move points to a modest reduction in that defensive skew.
The 25-delta skew has shifted more decisively towards an upside bias at the front end of the term structure. One-week skew fell sharply from neutral to –0.103 over the past week, placing it in just the 4th percentile of its three-year distribution and signalling a pronounced relative premium for short-dated calls. One-month skew also declined, moving from +0.021 to slightly negative at –0.004 and sitting around the 41st percentile, consistent with broadly neutral positioning. Further out, however, the structure remains more defensive, with three-month skew rising to +0.032, around the 68th percentile, while six-month skew remains positive at +0.022 and near the 70th percentile.
| Tenor | Current | 3-Year Percentile |
|---|---|---|
| 1w | −0.1032 | 4th |
| 1m | −0.0036 | 41st |
| 3m | +0.0317 | 68th |
| 6m | +0.0216 | 70th |
Taken together, the curve points to a pronounced near-term upside bias in options pricing, while longer-dated maturities continue to reflect a modest preference for downside protection.
Total gamma exposure has shifted materially from last week’s recovery, with the latest snapshot moving back into negative territory at approximately –$3.2bn. This marks a sharp reversal from the +$4.3bn daily reading observed previously, indicating that the recent shift towards a more stabilising positive-gamma environment has partially reversed. With aggregate gamma now back in negative territory, dealer hedging may once again become more procyclical, potentially amplifying larger price moves.
At the strike level, positioning remains tightly concentrated around current price, although the balance has shifted more clearly towards negative gamma. The largest negative concentrations sit near $78k, $80k and $85k, at approximately –$1.6bn, –$2.3bn and –$1.8bn respectively. Positive gamma remains concentrated near $75k, $76k and $81k, with the $81k strike carrying roughly +$0.85bn. The resulting structure remains highly congested, but the broader negative tilt suggests that a decisive move away from the current range could generate a more reflexive expansion in volatility as dealer hedging begins to reinforce rather than dampen price movement.
On balance, derivatives positioning has expanded modestly alongside Bitcoin’s recovery without showing signs of excessive leverage. Futures and options open interest have both increased, funding remains positive but contained, and liquidation activity has risen only moderately. At the same time, short-dated skew has shifted towards a more pronounced upside bias while aggregate gamma has moved back into negative territory. This combination suggests that positioning has become somewhat more constructive, but the market may also be increasingly sensitive to a decisive break from the current range, with dealer hedging potentially amplifying any resulting move.
Bottom Line
- Performance: Major cryptoassets continued to outperform last week amid rising risk appetite, with ZCash, Hyperliquid, and Solana leading the top 10 and Ethereum outpacing Bitcoin while altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum recorded their biggest weekly net inflow year-to-date of around +166 mn USD.
- Cryptoasset Sentiment Index:[3] Our in-house Cryptoasset Sentiment Index recovered strongly, signalling bullish sentiment again, supported by broadening risk appetite across altcoins and the ongoing convergence of traditional and on-chain finance, underscored by the ECB’s launch of Pontes.
- Chart-of-the-Week: Our Altseason Index continues to signal an altseason, with 90% of tracked altcoins outperforming Bitcoin over the past week and 65% on a monthly basis historically, readings above 80% have tended to persist and support further outperformance of major altcoins vis-à-vis BTC over the short to medium term. These historical patterns provide useful context, but they should not be read as an indication that the same market dynamics will necessarily repeat.
Appendix
Data subject to change
Combined positioning = futures and options in % of Ol
Notes
[1], [2], [3] The Cryptoasset Sentiment Index is a composite indicator consisting of 15 different sub-indicators covering sentiment, on-chain, derivatives, flows developments as well as sentiment in traditional financial markets. A 90-day rolling z-score is used to standardise and aggregate these sub-indicators.
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