This report is for professional investors and information purposes only. Persons without professional investment experience should not rely on it. Not investment advice or a personal recommendation. Cryptoassets are high risk and volatile and you may lose all capital invested. See full risk information at the end of this document.
- Performance: Cryptoassets underperformed most traditional assets last week, driven by significant outflows from global crypto ETPs totalling -1,230.5 mn USD, with bitcoin ETPs alone accounting for -1,031.8 mn USD of those outflows. This underperformance also reflected signs of a reversal in market sentiment from elevated levels.
- Cryptoasset Sentiment Index: Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has reversed sharply from its recent highs and is now signalling neutral sentiment again. It had previously touched the highest level since May 2025.
- Chart-of-the-Week: Long-term holder supply (investors holding bitcoin for more than 155 days) has reached a new all-time high, with approximately 14.8M BTC (~74.3% of supply) - both in profit and loss - now controlled by long-term holders. From historical observations, such re-distribution from short-term to long-term holders is typical of a late-stage bear market and indicates that "hodling" may have become the dominant market mechanic, constricting the supply side since long-term holders are statistically less likely to distribute their bitcoins.
Chart of the Week
Performance
Last week, cryptoassets underperformed most traditional assets due to significant outflows from global crypto ETPs and signs of a reversal in market sentiment from elevated levels.
More specifically, global crypto ETPs experienced -1,230.5 mn USD in net outflows last week, of which global bitcoin ETPs accounted for -1,031.8 mn USD.
That being said, long-term holders continue to accumulate bitcoins which may limit significant downside risks. In this context, long-term holder is defined as an investor with a holding period of more than 155 days (and short-term holders with less than 155 days holding period). We are generally observing a continued re-distribution of bitcoins from short-term holders to long-term holders which is very typical in a bear market.
Long-term holder supply has just reached a new all-time high which means that most bitcoins are being held by investors which usually tend to be more sophisticated and have a higher long-term conviction than short-term holders, i.e. are statistically speaking less likely to distribute their bitcoins (Chart-of-the-week).
It also shows that ‘hodling' is the dominant market mechanic which is constricting the supply side.
As highlighted in our previous Bitcoin Macro Investor report, the vast majority of supply (14.8M BTC / ~74.3% of supply) – both in profit and loss – is now controlled by long-term holders. A condition that is historically indicative of a late-stage bear market.
Although we do think that bitcoin will likely consolidate in the short term due to high sentiment levels, we think that bitcoin may likely bottom out over the next 1-2 months as demonstrated here.
The ultimate upside catalyst for bitcoin and other cryptoassets remains unknown. However, jitters in the sovereign bond market may provide such a catalyst if major central banks need to intervene to safeguard financial stability.
In particular, Japanese JGBs continue to be sold off while the Yen continues to depreciate – a clear sign that the Japanese bond market is experiencing significant capital flight by international investors. The 30-year JGB yield has recently reached a new all-time high while the 10-year JGB yield is at the highest level since late 1996, i.e. the highest in 30 years.
A continued rise JGB yields may put the Japanese fiscal debt sustainability at risk given that Japan has the highest fiscal debt-to-GDP ratio among G7 nations with ~202% per December 2025. Central bank intervention may be needed to cap the rise in bond yields which may provide a tailwind for bitcoin as it implies easier monetary policy and financial conditions.
It is worth mentioning that the rise in Japanese bond yields has been affecting other major bond markets such as US Treasuries as well. As a result, the US 10-year Treasury yield has risen to the highest level since early 2025 as well.
Apart from these developments, Kevin Warsh has been confirmed by the Senate to succeed Jerome Powell as the next chair of the Federal Reserve System. He has frequently made positive remarks with respect to bitcoin in the past and is generally considered to be pro-bitcoin / pro-crypto.
Moreover, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 in a 15-9 bipartisan vote, with a Tillis-Alsobrooks compromise restricting passive yield on payment stablecoins while allowing certain transaction-based rewards, plus new insider-trading and bankruptcy provisions and a 360-day implementation window.
Next, it heads to the full Senate floor, where advocates need to secure enough Democratic supporters to clear the 60-vote threshold - with an unresolved conflict-of-interest provision (targeting Trump family crypto ties) still a major sticking point, before being reconciled with the House version.
Polymarket currently gives roughly a 62% chance of passage this year, with summer recess and midterms tightening the window.
In general, among the top 10 crypto assets Hyperliquid, TRON, and LEO were the relative outperformers. Ethereum underperformed bitcoin last week.
Sentiment
Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” declined steadily from its highs at the beginning of last week and is now signalling neutral sentiment. The earlier peak represented a level of short-term exuberance amongst investors that the Index has recorded only seven times since its inception.
At the moment, 7 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.
CME Net Positioning, BTC 1m 25 delta skew, BTC put-call volume, and Altseason index all flipped from positive to negative, suggesting investors adopted a more bearish stance across the BTC and broader crypto complex, and with increased appetite for downside hedges.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index declined significantly last week, entering back into the “fear” level of sentiment. This is in line with negative crypto ETP flows, a declining Cryptoasset Sentiment Index and Cross Asset Risk Appetite.
Performance dispersion also decreased last week. The broader crypto sectors underperformed, with gaming, Layer 2s, and meme coins posting the most negative returns week on week, ranging from −16% to −19%. In these types of market environments, altcoin investors often rotate into stablecoins or blue-chip assets such as BTC.
When dispersion decreases, it may indicate that the market appears to be driven by a less diverse set of narratives which, in our analysis, has historically been associated with periods of decreasing risk appetite in prior market cycles.
Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin decreased significantly to only 15% of our tracked altcoins in the index outperforming. Ethereum underperformed Bitcoin.
Sentiment in traditional financial markets as measured by our in-house measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) decreased to 0.76 over the past week, signalling that risk appetite is declining in both traditional and crypto markets. This is likely to have had a material impact on broader crypto sentiment, flows, and positioning.
CME Bitcoin Commercials Net Positioning, which shows the difference between long and short CME Bitcoin futures contracts increased from –6.41% to 8.97% of open interest. Investors repositioned into a risk-off posture, having unwound these short hedges over a couple preceding weeks.
Fund Flows
Global Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs saw significant net outflows compared with the prior week, whilst basket and thematic products experienced only a marginal decline in net flows. Altcoin ex-ETH products attracted interest in Solana ETPs, as well as in two newly launched HYPE products (Bitwise's BHYP and 21Shares' THYP).
Global crypto ETPs saw around - 1230.5 mn USD in weekly net outflows across most types of cryptoassets, after +740.2 mn USD in net inflows the previous week.
Global Bitcoin ETPs continued to experience net outflows of - 1031.8 mn USD last week, of which -1044 mn USD in net outflows were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) in the US experienced net outflows, totalling - 46.8 mn USD last week.
In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) experienced net inflows equivalent to +0.2 mn USD, as the Bitwise Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) experienced net inflows of +1 mn USD.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) posted net outflows of –92.9 mn USD and the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) experienced net outflows of around -317.2 mn USD last week.
Meanwhile, global Ethereum ETPs experienced -258.7 mn USD in net outflows last week, of which US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows of around -260.9 mn USD on aggregate.
The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) posted net outflows of -7.6 mn USD whilst the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) saw net outflows of -184.6 mn USD.
The Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW) in the US experienced no net inflows last week.
In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) recorded net outflows of –0.2mn, as the Bitwise Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) saw neither USD inflows nor outflows.
Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum experienced net inflows of + 60.6 mn USD last week.
Thematic & basket crypto ETPs posted small net outflows of –0.6 mn USD on aggregate last week. The Bitwise MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) experienced no net inflows.
On-Chain Data
After reaching a high of $82k this week, Bitcoin has retraced toward the $78k level, with the pattern of oscillation around $80k persisting as the market remains unable to establish a decisive trend. Notably, the $80k region remains a key area of interest, marking the location of the November 2025 breakdown and highlighting the zone as an important point of transition.
Furthermore, the Short-Term Holder cost basis (STH-CB) at $78.3k, representing the average acquisition price of newer market participants, and the True Market Mean (TMM) at $78.6k, reflecting the average cost basis of active investors, both reside within this region. As highlighted in previous editions, these levels have historically acted as key thresholds that must be reclaimed and held for momentum to re-establish. At present, price continues to hover around these levels following the recent breakdown, attempting to convert this area into support.
Interestingly, both the STH-CB and TMM sit around the same price level, indicating that newer investors and the average active investor hold a similar acquisition price. As a result, both local and broader market forces appear to be acting in relative synchrony, with both cohorts responding to similar cost-basis and profitability dynamics.
Above this, the 200-day moving average, traditionally used as a broad delineator between bull and bear regimes, sits as overhead resistance at $81.8k. Additionally, the average ETF inflow cost basis at $83k sits within this same cluster, further reinforcing the importance of the current trading range and its upper boundary.
Spot volume at $5.8bn and futures volume at $33.3bn remain historically low, sitting in the 3rd and 4th percentiles across the past three years, respectively. Similarly, total exchange inflows and outflows, a proxy for investor engagement, remain muted at $3.85bn, sitting in the 19th percentile across the past year. Together, these signals support the view that market participants remain largely unengaged, with subdued liquidity contributing to a fragile market backdrop.
HODLing dynamics continue to dominate investor behaviour, with supply held by Long-Term Holders, a proxy for mature investors who have held coins for longer than 155 days, reaching an all-time high of 14.85mn BTC. This suggests coins remain largely inactive and are continuing to age into LTH status, with these investors unwilling to distribute within the prevailing price range.
This is reflected in the Sell-Side Risk Ratio, which measures capital-flow intensity by comparing realised profit and loss to total invested capital. At present, only 0.52% of trading days have recorded a lower reading, reinforcing that capital flows remain very limited and that on-chain liquidity conditions are extremely tight. Historically, such conditions have often preceded market moves that re-engage supply and unlock latent investor liquidity, contributing to elevated volatility conditions.
The altcoin sector remains closely tethered to Bitcoin, with correlation and beta percentiles across the altcoin complex (180-day) remaining extremely elevated at 97% and 99%, respectively. This indicates a predominantly single-factor environment strongly anchored to Bitcoin.
Notably, Bitcoin's relative performance against other major digital assets, such as ETH and SOL, remains elevated year-to-date, with the BTC/ETH and BTC/SOL ratios sitting in their 84th and 96th percentiles, respectively.
Futures, Options & Perpetuals
Over the past week, BTC perpetual futures open interest increased slightly by approximately +3.34k BTC, while CME futures open interest rose by around +5.6k BTC versus the prior week. That combination suggests leverage began to rebuild across both offshore perpetuals and more institutionally oriented venues, although the increase remained relatively measured. Aggregate futures liquidations also picked up from the prior week. In total, liquidations reached roughly $2.37bn over the week, versus $2.22bn previously, with long liquidations of $1.68bn and short liquidations of $0.69bn.
In anticipation of a positive Trump-Xi summit, BTC rallied as high as $82k, which also coincided with the 200-day moving average. However, price was rejected at that level and subsequently reversed those gains, as the summit failed to deliver meaningful positive developments and hotter CPI and PPI readings increased concerns around Iran war related inflation pressures. Liquidity is now forming around $77k on the downside and $79k to $80k on the upside, leaving the market in a tighter and slightly lower range in the near term.
Perpetual funding rates, measured on a 7-day moving average, turned positive at around 0.78%. That suggests futures positioning became somewhat more constructive compared with last week, with long exposure beginning to return after a period of more cautious positioning.
At the same time, the BTC 3-month annualised basis ticked down to around 1.83%. That leaves the futures curve still relatively flat, reinforcing the view that while short-term positioning has improved, the market is not yet pricing in a strong bullish impulse over the next few months.
In options markets, BTC Deribit options open interest increased modestly by roughly +16k BTC, bringing total open interest up to 392k BTC. The Deribit put-to-call open interest ratio increased slightly to 0.69, while the equivalent metric across IBIT options moved lower to 0.67 by week's end.
Taken together, these moves suggest options exposure continued to rebuild, although the composition of demand was mixed across markets. The increase in Deribit open interest and put-to-call ratio points to higher crypto-native options activity and somewhat firmer downside protection demand, while the decline in the IBIT put-to-call ratio suggests ETF-linked options positioning became slightly less defensive.
The 25-delta skew moved higher across the term structure during the week, with the short end, including the 1-week, 1-month and 3-month tenors, rising to the highest levels since the start of the Iran war. That points to a market where downside protection became more expensive across maturities, particularly at the front end, as investors reacted to renewed inflation concerns and the rejection at the 200-day moving average.
Total GEX, on a 7-day moving average basis, increased from $0.8bn to $1.75bn. This suggests dealer positioning has become more meaningful again, increasing the potential scale of hedging flows around key strike levels. In practical terms, the market may now be somewhat more mechanically reactive than it was a week ago.
Dealer gamma exposure also remains concentrated around important nearby levels, with the bulk of negative gamma clustered around the $82k strike. That leaves the market most sensitive to a renewed move back toward that level, particularly if spot attempts to retest the 200-day moving average. By contrast, positive gamma is now concentrated around the $78k to $79k area, suggesting stabilising dealer flows may sit closer to current spot levels and could help dampen moves around that range.
Bottom Line
- Performance: Cryptoassets underperformed most traditional assets last week, driven by significant outflows from global crypto ETPs totalling -1,230.5 mn USD, with bitcoin ETPs alone accounting for -1,031.8 mn USD of those outflows. This underperformance also reflected signs of a reversal in market sentiment from elevated levels.
- Cryptoasset Sentiment Index: Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has reversed sharply from its recent highs and is now signalling neutral sentiment again. It had previously touched the highest level since May 2025.
- Chart-of-the-Week: Long-term holder supply (investors holding bitcoin for more than 155 days) has reached a new all-time high, with approximately 14.8M BTC (~74.3% of supply) - both in profit and loss - now controlled by long-term holders. This re-distribution from short-term to long-term holders is typical of a late-stage bear market and indicates that "hodling" has become the dominant market mechanic, constricting the supply side since long-term holders are statistically less likely to distribute their bitcoins.
Appendix
Data subject to change
Combined positioning = futures and options in % of Ol
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