This report is for professional investors and information purposes only. Persons without professional investment experience should not rely on it. Not investment advice or a personal recommendation. Cryptoassets are high risk and volatile and you may lose all capital invested. See full risk information at the end of this document.
- Performance: Cryptoassets underperformed US equities last week, while commodities sold off sharply amid signs of easing geopolitical risks.
- Cryptoasset Sentiment Index: Our Cryptoasset Sentiment Index rebounded from recent neutral readings and is currently signalling a slightly bullish sentiment again.
- Chart-of-the-week: Bitcoin still trades below its historical MVRV mean (only 36% of observations below the current reading), while the NASDAQ 100's price-to-book ratio sits near record highs (~99% of observations below the current reading) - one of the most extreme valuation divergences between bitcoin and US large-cap tech we have ever observed.
Chart of the Week
Latest BTC MVRV as of 2026-05-24 | Latest NDX P/B as of 2026-05-26
Performance
Last week, cryptoassets underperformed US equities while commodities sold off sharply amid signs of a renewed decline in geopolitical risks.
Valuations are top-of-mind for most investors right now. The latest rebound in equities has raised renewed concerns about a potential valuation ‘bubble' in US equities.
In this context, it is worth noting that bitcoin is still trading below its historical mean in terms of the market-value-to-realised-value (MVRV) ratio, which is the on-chain equivalent of a price-to-book multiple in traditional equities.
In fact, only 36% of Bitcoin's historical MVRV observations were below the current reading, while 64% were above - meaning bitcoin's current valuation sits in the lower half of its historical distribution.
In contrast, the price-to-book ratio of the NASDAQ 100 is currently trading near its highest level on record in our sample, with ~99% of historical observations below the current reading. (Chart-of-the-week).
While direct comparisons to the late-1990s 'Dot-com Bubble' are complicated by changes in index composition and the rise of intangible-heavy business models, current valuations leave little margin for error.
In any case, this is one of the most extreme valuation divergences between bitcoin and US large-cap tech we have ever observed.
This divergence may be driven by several factors. One could argue that US large-cap tech - and the NASDAQ 100 in particular - is increasingly being treated as a 'hard asset' substitute, absorbing flows away from sovereign bonds in much the same way as gold, which is itself trading at record valuations. That would help explain why US tech equities have so far remained largely unaffected by the recent rise in sovereign bond yields.
However, the more important implication in our view is what this means for bitcoin and other cryptoassets going forward.
Three points stand out:
First, on this metric bitcoin's relative valuation could be viewed as offering a ‘margin of safety' at a time when other hard asset alternatives - gold and US tech - are priced for perfection. In our historical sample, periods in which bitcoin traded below its MVRV mean have tended to coincide with stronger subsequent returns; though, as always, past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Second, should the current concentration in US large-cap tech begin to unwind - whether due to disappointing earnings, AI capex scrutiny, or simply mean reversion - bitcoin stands to benefit as a natural beneficiary of capital rotating out of these stretched hard asset proxies into genuinely scarce, non-sovereign stores of value.
Third, in a scenario where bond yields continue to rise and fiscal concerns intensify, bitcoin's fixed supply and lack of counterparty risk become increasingly differentiated relative to equities, whose valuations ultimately depend on discounted future cash flows that are highly sensitive to the level of interest rates.
Lastly, the rallies in both US equities and gold may also be a harbinger of rising appetite for hard assets more broadly which may provide a tailwind for bitcoin down the road.
In short, while the NASDAQ 100 looks priced for the best of all possible worlds, bitcoin remains priced for something closer to indifference - a setup that has historically favoured the latter.
That being said, a potential correction in the NASDAQ 100 would most likely affect bitcoin negatively in the short term as well due to relatively high correlations.
In general, among the top 10 crypto assets Hyperliquid, ZCash, and TRON were the relative outperformers. Ethereum slightly underperformed bitcoin last week.
Sentiment
Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” steadily increased from neutral to positive sentiment throughout the week. Investors regained some risk appetite having cooled off from last week's contraction from peak levels of sentiment.
At the moment, 11 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.
BTC 1m 25 delta skew, BTC exchange inflows, BTC STH SOPR, BTC Long Futures Liquidations Dominance, and Altseason index all flipped from negative to positive suggesting some early signs of a sentiment shift, as options markets begin pricing in more upside risk, holders are moving coins onto exchanges to potentially take profit, short-term holders are returning to profitability, long-side leverage is getting flushed out to create a healthier positioning base, and capital is starting to rotate into altcoins.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index increased slightly last week, although remains in the “fear” level of sentiment. This is in line with improving cryptoasset sentiment index.
Performance dispersion slightly decreased last week. The broader crypto sectors underperformed, with gaming, DeFi, and meme coins posting the most negative returns week on week, ranging from −2% to −6%. Sentiment, leverage and narrative need to return for altcoins to outperform.
When dispersion decreases, it may indicate that the market appears to be driven by a less diverse set of narratives which, in our analysis, has historically been associated with periods of decreasing risk appetite in prior market cycles.
Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin increased significantly to 70% of our tracked altcoins in the index outperforming. Ethereum underperformed Bitcoin. Underperforming majors such as BTC and ETH, but with increasing altcoin outperformance albeit declining dispersion suggests that the altcoin gains are heavily concentrated. This seems to be within the AI sector +30% lead by NEAR (+65% week over week), RENDER (+24% week over week) and FET (+21% week over week).
Sentiment in traditional financial markets as measured by our in-house measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) decreased to 0.62 over the past week, signalling that risk appetite is declining in both traditional markets.
CME Bitcoin Commercials Net Positioning, which shows the difference between long and short CME Bitcoin futures contracts remained around –9.67% of open interest, indicating a cautious but not aggressively bearish outlook on near-term price direction.
Fund Flows
Global Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs saw continued net outflows compared with the prior week, as basket and thematic products also experienced a marginal decline in net flows. Altcoin ex-ETH products saw net outflows, although net inflows into HYPE and SOL products were sustained.
Global crypto ETPs saw around - 833.8 mn USD in weekly net outflows across most types of cryptoassets, after -1230.5 mn USD in net outflows the previous week.
Global Bitcoin ETPs continued to experience net outflows of - 676.6 mn USD last week, of which - 608.6 mn USD in net outflows were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) in the US experienced no net inflows or outflows last week.
In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) experienced net outflows equivalent to -0.09 mn USD, as the Bitwise Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) experienced no net inflows or outflows.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) posted no net inflows or outflows whereas, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) experienced net outflows of around –559.6 mn USD last week.
Meanwhile, global Ethereum ETPs experienced -154.7 mn USD in net outflows last week, of which US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows of around -137.4 mn USD on aggregate.
The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) posted no net inflows or outflows, whilst the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) saw net outflows of -134 mn USD.
The Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW) in the US experienced net inflows of +2.9 mn USD last week.
In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) recorded no net inflows or outflows, whilst the Bitwise Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) saw marginal net inflows of +0.1 mn USD.
Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum experienced net outflows of - 7.7 mn USD last week.
Thematic & basket crypto ETPs posted small net inflows of +5.2 mn USD on aggregate last week. The Bitwise MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) experienced no net inflows or outflows.
On-Chain Data
Bitcoin continues to trade within an extremely narrow corridor, reaching a high of $78k this week after falling to $74k, its lowest level since April.
The market remains unable to reclaim the Short-Term Holder cost basis (STH-CB) at $78.1k and the True Market Mean (TMM) at $78.3k, despite repeated attempts. These levels represent the average acquisition prices of newer and active investors, respectively, and have historically acted as key thresholds that must be reclaimed and held for momentum to re-establish.
Outflows across the US spot ETF complex continued to weigh on markets, with net outflows of -$1.5bn over the week. This places the move in the 91st percentile of weekly net outflows, highlighting the scale of the redemption pressure.
Interestingly, a divergence in behaviour can be observed across on-chain markets through the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which measures the average profit or loss realised on spent coins. At present, SOPR indicates an average realised loss of approximately –2.5%, which remains relatively shallow. This suggests institutional markets currently appear more reactive, while on-chain transaction behaviour has not yet confirmed the same degree of sentiment deterioration.
The average inflow cost basis for the US spot ETF complex sits at $83k, closely aligning with the 200-day moving average at $80.6k and sitting just above the STH-CB/TMM cluster. This synchronisation across technical, ETF, and on-chain positioning reinforces the resistance zone above current spot price, framing the area as a key midpoint for the market.
Spot volume at $5.4bn and futures volume at $33bn remain historically low, sitting in the 2nd and 3rd percentiles across the past three years, respectively. Similarly, total exchange inflows and outflows, a proxy for investor engagement, remain subdued at $3.4bn, sitting in the 35th percentile over the same period. Together, these signals suggest a disengaged investor base, resulting in highly illiquid market conditions which have historically led to an uptick in volatility.
The market remains notably futures-driven, with the spot-to-futures volume ratio sitting at 0.167. The continued decline in this ratio suggests market structure is shifting further toward futures-led activity, rather than being supported by underlying spot demand.
Strategy's STRC product has slipped below par, trading at approximately $99.35 versus its $100 stated amount. This is notable because STRC has been an important financing channel for Strategy's Bitcoin accumulation strategy. When the instrument trades below par, additional issuance becomes less efficient, as new capital may need to be raised at a discount or with more favourable terms for investors.
This weakens the capital-raising flywheel that has supported incremental BTC purchases, suggesting Strategy's ability to finance further accumulation through this channel may be temporarily constrained.
In general, the Digital Asset Treasury complex remains under pressure, with companies holding a combined total of approximately –$4.7bn in unrealised losses at present.
On balance, the altcoin sector remains closely tethered to Bitcoin, with correlation and beta percentiles across the altcoin complex (180-day) remaining extremely elevated at 97% and 99%, respectively. This indicates a predominantly single-factor environment strongly anchored to Bitcoin, where altcoin moves remain highly reflexive and amplified relative to BTC.
Futures, Options & Perpetuals
Over the past week, BTC perpetual futures open interest decreased slightly by approximately -6.32k BTC, while CME futures open interest rose by around +1.95k BTC versus the prior week. That combination suggests offshore leverage was reduced, while more institutionally oriented venues saw only a modest rebuild in positioning. Aggregate futures liquidations also picked up from the prior week. In total, liquidations reached roughly $2.90bn over the week, versus $2.37bn previously, with long liquidations of $2.04bn and short liquidations of $0.86bn.
In anticipation of a potential resumption of the US Iran conflict over the weekend, BTC dropped sharply to $74k, where the 20-week moving average sits. Price then bounced back towards $77k following reports of a potential peace deal and a 60-day extension to the ceasefire. Liquidity is now forming around $74k on the downside and $78k on the upside, leaving the market in a tighter range but with downside levels still important in the near term.
Perpetual funding rates, measured on a 7-day moving average, ended the week positive at around +3.66% annualised. That suggests futures positioning remains constructive despite the decline in perpetual open interest, with longs still willing to pay for exposure even as overall leverage was trimmed.
At the same time, the BTC 3-month annualised basis ticked up to around +2.2%. That leaves the futures curve still relatively flat, but slightly firmer than last week, reinforcing the view that positioning has improved at the margin without yet signalling a strong bullish impulse over the next few months.
In options markets, BTC Deribit options open interest increased modestly by roughly +14.6k BTC, bringing total open interest up to 406.6k BTC. The Deribit put to call open interest ratio remained flat at 0.69, while the equivalent metric across IBIT options moved higher to 0.71 by week's end.
Taken together, these moves suggest options exposure continued to rebuild, although the composition of demand remained mixed across markets. The increase in Deribit open interest points to higher crypto native options activity, while the flat put to call ratio suggests demand was relatively balanced. By contrast, the increase in the IBIT put to call ratio points to slightly more defensive positioning across ETF linked options.
The 25-delta skew declined slightly across the term structure during the week. That suggests downside protection became marginally less expensive across maturities, even as spot price action remained sensitive to geopolitical headlines and the market continued to trade around key moving average support.
Total GEX, on a 7-day moving average basis, was broadly flat versus last week at around -$1.22bn. This suggests dealer positioning remains meaningful but has not materially changed, leaving the market mechanically sensitive around key strike levels but without a clear week on week build in hedging pressure.
Dealer gamma exposure also remains concentrated around important nearby levels, with the bulk of negative gamma clustered around the $75k strike. That leaves the market most sensitive to a renewed move back towards that level, particularly if spot retests the 20-week moving average. By contrast, positive gamma is concentrated around $80k, suggesting stabilising dealer flows may sit above current spot levels and could help dampen moves if the market pushes back towards that range.
Bottom Line
- Performance: Cryptoassets underperformed US equities last week, while commodities sold off sharply amid signs of easing geopolitical risks.
- Cryptoasset Sentiment Index: Our Cryptoasset Sentiment Index rebounded from recent neutral readings and is currently signalling a slightly bullish sentiment again.
- Chart-of-the-week: Bitcoin still trades below its historical MVRV mean (only 36% of observations below the current reading), while the NASDAQ 100's price-to-book ratio sits near record highs (~99% of observations below the current reading) - one of the most extreme valuation divergences between bitcoin and US large-cap tech we have ever observed.
Appendix
Data subject to change
Combined positioning = futures and options in % of Ol
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