This report is for professional investors and information purposes only. Persons without professional investment experience should not rely on it. Not investment advice or a personal recommendation. Cryptoassets are high risk and volatile and you may lose all capital invested. See full risk information at the end of this document.
- Performance: Cryptoassets outperformed in tandem with US equities last week, driven by a temporary improvement in global risk appetite following the US-Iran ceasefire. However, renewed geopolitical tensions - particularly around the Strait of Hormuz - are likely to sustain elevated market volatility in the near term.
- Cryptoasset Sentiment Index: The Cryptoasset Sentiment Index climbed to its highest level since January 2026, now indicating a slightly bullish market tone. This reflects improving investor confidence, supported in part by stronger institutional participation despite lingering on-chain selling pressure.
- Chart-of-the-week: Institutional demand for Bitcoin surged, with US spot ETF inflows reaching their strongest levels since January 2026 and cumulative global ETP flows hitting a year-to-date high. Combined with large-scale purchases from treasury entities like Strategy, this demand has outpaced new supply.
Chart of the Week
Performance
Last week, cryptoassets outperformed alongside US equities as a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran lifted global risk appetite.
A temporary ceasefire before the weekend saw Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz for all commercial vessels for the remaining period, but Iran closed it again over the weekend following a chaotic morning, US preparations to board Iran-linked tankers, and renewed tensions.
Until today, the Strait remains closed with zero oil tankers passing through as of yesterday based on real-time data provided by Bloomberg. The US military recently struck and seized an Iranian vessel prompting Iranian drone attacks on US military ships while peace talks stall and the ceasefire is set to expire in days. The situation in the strait may continue to cause volatility in global markets in the near term, though the outcome remains uncertain.
That said, institutional demand for bitcoin accelerated significantly last week as both global bitcoin ETPs and treasury companies purchased more than the available new supply.
More specifically, net inflows into US spot bitcoin ETFs accelerated to the highest level since January 2026 and cumulative flows into global bitcoin ETPs reached their highest level year-to-date (chart-of-the-week).
Besides, treasury company buying – primarily via Strategy (MSTR) – also accelerated significantly based on estimates by Bitcoin for Corporations' STRC ATM Tracker.
Based on Strategy STRC's issuances alone last week, Strategy likely purchased approximately 29,460 BTC which would rank among the top 5 purchases in company history. STRC – Strategy's perpetual preferred equity vehicle – has allowed Strategy to accelerate its bitcoin purchases due to high demand for these issuances.
Based on available estimates, Strategy's bitcoin holdings may potentially have reached a level comparable to or exceeding BlackRock's IBIT bitcoin holdings, which would make Strategy the largest institutional holder of bitcoin worldwide by this measure though this has not been officially verified, yet.
In general, positive institutional demand growth has somewhat mitigated negative realised cap changes which implies ongoing on-chain selling pressure, albeit at a slower pace than a month ago. Investors should note that sustained on-chain selling pressure remains a material headwind and may offset the positive demand signals described above. Realised cap changes are a proxy for on-chain capital invested.
In this context, it will be interesting to see whether bitcoin can reclaim the US bitcoin ETF cost basis which currently resides at around $81k based on our estimates based on Bloomberg ETF flow data.
In our view, this represents a technically significant level. In a scenario where bitcoin breaks above this level, the average US spot bitcoin ETF investor would move from unrealised losses to unrealised gains, which could act as a supportive factor for market sentiment - though this is one of several possible outcomes and should not be read as a prediction of future performance.
On the macro side, both the regional Philly Fed and Empire State Manufacturing Indices have surprised to the upside in April suggesting that the manufacturing upturn in the US continued in April. However, negative surprises in both the NFIB small business optimism and the NAHB housing market index imply a deterioration in more domestically exposed businesses.
In general, among the top 10 crypto assets XRP, Bitcoin, and BNB were the relative outperformers. Ethereum underperformed bitcoin though.
Sentiment
Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” improved slightly over the week but remained bounded within neutral territory as the Straight closed over the weekend, suggesting that market focus continues to be driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.
At the moment, 9 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.
Last week, the Crypto Fear and Greed, Crypto ETP Fund Flows, Crypto Dispersion, BTC Exchange Inflows, BTC STH SOPR, BTC STH NUPL, BTC 1m IV, BTC 1M 25 Delta Skew, and Cross Asset Risk Appetite showed positive momentum.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index improved although still remains in the “fear” level of sentiment as of this morning yet rising to the highest level since the end of January 2026. This aligns with broader performance dispersion, stronger Fund flows, higher altcoin outperformance and increased cross asset risk appetite.
Performance dispersion among cryptoassets increased last week to 0.37, suggesting stronger and more widespread momentum beyond the blue-chip altcoins.
When dispersion increases, it may indicate that the market appears to be driven by a more diverse set of narratives which, in our analysis, has historically been associated with periods of increasing risk appetite in prior market cycles, although past correlations between dispersion and risk appetite are not indicative of future market conditions and may not repeat.
Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin increased 10%-points last week, with 30% of our tracked altcoins in the index outperforming. However, Ethereum underperformed Bitcoin.
Sentiment in traditional financial markets as measured by our in-house measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) increased to 0.74 over the past week, signalling a more optimistic outlook in traditional financial markets. CARA metric measures risk appetite across 30 different assets spanning equities, derivatives, bonds, commodities, and FX via the average rolling 90-days z-score across these prices. This coincides with Bitcoin's outperformance as investors increase their bias toward riskier assets.
CME Bitcoin Commercials Net Positioning, which shows the difference between long and short CME Bitcoin futures contracts increased from–9.72 to -8.36 suggesting the concentration of short positioning reduced week-over-week, likely contributing to Bitcoin's outperformance. However, short exposure remains at levels not seen since late 2023, suggesting this may be considered a crowded trade, with any reversal potentially contributing to increased volatility.
Fund Flows
Global crypto ETPs saw significant net inflows last week across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and basket and thematic products. Although altcoins Ex Ethereum products saw net outflows.
Global crypto ETPs saw around +1270.8 mn USD in weekly net inflows across most types of cryptoassets, after +932.6 mn USD in net inflows the previous week.
Global Bitcoin ETPs have experienced net inflows totalling +1092.7 mn USD last week, of which +925.2 mn USD in net inflows were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) in the US experienced net inflows, totalling +54.1 mn USD last week.
In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) experienced net outflows equivalent to –3.1 mn USD, whereas the Bitwise Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) experienced net inflows of +3.4 mn USD.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) posted net outflows of –79.1 mn USD and the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) experienced net inflows of around +906.1 mn USD last week.
Meanwhile, global Ethereum ETPs also experienced +282.4 mn USD in net inflows last week, of which US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net inflows of around +257.9 mn USD on aggregate.
The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) posted net outflows of -16.7 mn USD, whereas the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) that experienced +99.2 mn USD of net inflows.
The Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW) in the US experienced net outflows of -0.6 mn USD.
In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) experienced net inflows last week of +1.8 mn USD, as the Bitwise Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) saw +5.1 mn USD of net inflows.
Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum experienced net outflows of -105 mn USD last week.
Thematic & basket crypto ETPs posted net inflows of +0.7 mn USD on aggregate last week. The Bitwise MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) experienced net inflows of +1.3 mn.
On-Chain Data
Bitcoin recorded a positive week of price action, reaching a high of $78.5k, its highest level since early February. This move was potentially supported by the initial easing of concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, leading to notable strength in broader risk assets, with major equity indices such as the S&P 500 rallying to all-time highs. However, recent developments suggest the situation surrounding the Strait remains uncertain, with ongoing tensions continuing to leave markets sensitive to geopolitical shocks.
Exchange Spot Volume Delta has turned slightly positive, reaching approximately +$50mn. Notably, the metric continues to oscillate around equilibrium, shifting between positive and negative territory, suggesting a degree of market indecision.
Additionally, the recent uptick in price action has been accompanied by a rise in aggregate exchange inflow and outflow volume, increasing from $3bn at the start of the week to approximately $4.6bn, the highest level since early February. This suggests that improved price conditions have driven a modest increase in investor activity. However, volumes remain relatively subdued compared to levels observed during the recent bull market, indicating that overall investor sentiment remains impaired.
Aggregate investor stress remains elevated, with the value of invested capital held at a loss estimated near $730bn (~67% of Realised Cap). This suggests that a substantial share of deployed capital remains underwater, despite the recent moderation.
Profit- and loss-taking dynamics remain broadly balanced, with Net Realised Profit/Loss narrowing to approximately –$121mn, the least negative reading since late January. This suggests the market is potentially at a decision point from a liquidity perspective, with capital inflows and outflows largely offsetting each other and neither a profit- nor loss-dominant regime emerging. Historically, similar periods of indecision have tended to precede increases in volatility as the market moves to establish a clearer directional trend, though the timeline remains uncertain.
Bitcoin continues to dominate market structure. Correlation and beta percentiles (180-day) across the altcoin complex remain extremely elevated at 97% and 99%, respectively, indicating a predominantly single-factor environment centred on Bitcoin. Despite this internal leadership, the digital asset market remains highly sensitive to broader macro forces.
Spot price has approached the Short-Term Holder cost basis (STH-CB) at $81k, representing the average acquisition price of newer market participants, as well as the True Market Mean (TMM) at $78k, which reflects the average cost basis of active investors. Historically, these levels have served as key thresholds that need to be reclaimed and held for momentum to re-establish. Notably, the market has not broken above the STH-CB since October 2025, nor the TMM since late January 2026, suggesting these levels may continue to act as areas of resistance.
Across a broader range, the cycle low near $60k continues to define structural downside support, while the $80k region marks the upper boundary from which the latest contraction accelerated. Price has remained confined within this range since 31 January, reinforcing its significance as the prevailing trading regime for now.
Futures, Options & Perpetuals
Over the past week, BTC perpetual futures open interest declined slightly by approximately -0.88k BTC, while CME futures open interest rose by around +6.6k BTC, marking a modest increase from the prior week. That combination suggests positioning in offshore perpetuals was broadly flat to slightly softer, while activity in more institutionally oriented venues continued to build. Aggregate futures liquidations moved notably higher. In total, liquidations reached roughly $3.05bn over the week, versus $2.25bn previously, with long liquidations of $1.27bn and short liquidations of $1.78bn. Together with the small decline in open interest, this points to a meaningful amount of short covering through the week.
On the back of positive geopolitical headlines and news around the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, BTC rallied as high as $78k, clearing liquidity pockets around the $74k and $76k areas and driving a wave of short liquidations. That move then reversed as sentiment softened on reports that Iran could again move to close the Strait. Liquidity is now reforming around $74k on the downside and $79k on the upside, leaving the market with a new range to trade against.
Perpetual funding rates ended the week at -5.1% annualised. That suggests futures positioning remained cautious despite the rally, with the move higher in spot failing to generate a sustained build in aggressive long exposure.
At the same time, the BTC 3-month annualised basis ticked down to around 2.32%. While still subdued in absolute terms, the basis suggests the futures curve remains cautious and continues to reflect only limited appetite to price in a stronger bullish impulse over the next few months.
In options markets, BTC Deribit options open interest increased by roughly 32.8k BTC, bringing total open interest to 416.9k BTC. The Deribit put-to-call open interest ratio decreased slightly to 0.70, while the equivalent metric across IBIT options also moved lower to 0.64 by week's end.
Taken together, these moves suggest downside protection demand eased somewhat at the margin, particularly across IBIT options, even as overall options activity picked up. The rise in open interest points to renewed positioning, but the modest decline in put-to-call ratios suggests that fresh exposure was not driven by a stronger demand for protection.
The 25-delta skew moved slightly higher across the term structure during the week. This suggests the premium for downside protection increased somewhat, even as put-to-call ratios eased. With the move visible across tenors, the signal is one of slightly firmer demand for hedges rather than a narrow shift in short-dated positioning.
Total GEX, on a 7-day moving average basis, increased from $2.5bn to $3.6bn. This suggests dealer positioning has become somewhat heavier again after last week's lighter setup. In practical terms, hedging flows may have somewhat more scope to influence spot moves, even if the market remains less mechanically stretched than in earlier periods of materially higher GEX.
Dealer gamma exposure also remains predominantly negative, with the bulk of negative gamma still clustered around the $74k to $76k strikes. That aligns closely with the recent areas of liquidation and price sensitivity, reinforcing their importance as zones where moves can become more unstable. By contrast, positive gamma has shifted higher to the $82k to $85k area, suggesting any stabilising dealer flows now sit well above current spot levels.
Bottom Line
- Performance: Cryptoassets outperformed in tandem with US equities last week, driven by a temporary improvement in global risk appetite following the US-Iran ceasefire. However, renewed geopolitical tensions - particularly around the Strait of Hormuz - are likely to sustain elevated market volatility in the near term.
- Cryptoasset Sentiment Index: The Cryptoasset Sentiment Index climbed to its highest level since January 2026, now indicating a slightly bullish market tone. This reflects improving investor confidence, supported in part by stronger institutional participation despite lingering on-chain selling pressure.
- Chart-of-the-week: Institutional demand for Bitcoin surged, with US spot ETF inflows reaching their strongest levels since January 2026 and cumulative global ETP flows hitting a year-to-date high. Combined with large-scale purchases from treasury entities like Strategy, this demand has outpaced new supply - highlighting a key structural tailwind for Bitcoin.
Appendix
Combined positioning = futures and options in % of Ol
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