From Sovereign Stress to Monetary Support: Bitcoin’s Breakout Setup

André Dragosch, PhD Director, Head of Research — Europe

Luke Deans Senior Research Associate

This report is for professional investors and information purposes only. Retail customers should not rely on it. Not investment advice or a personal recommendation. Cryptoassets are high risk and volatile and you may lose all capital invested. Please see full risk information at the end of this document.

Performance: May 2026 saw bitcoin stage a mechanical recovery above $80k before stalling at the $80k–$85k bull-bear threshold and retracing to $72k on heavy ETP outflows and a sharp sentiment reset in the second half. While near-term price action remains fragile and macro-driven, the structural backdrop continues to firm, with long-term holder supply at all-time highs and bitcoin's MVRV valuation sitting below the levels currently observed for some other hard asset alternatives, such as US large-cap tech.
Macro: The macro backdrop is caught between a sovereign bond market flashing red - with Japanese yields surging, a $29 trillion refinancing wall looming, and the IMF warning that markets are "less forgiving" - and resilient equities supported by strong earnings and positive growth revisions. Bitcoin may stay under pressure near-term as restrictive real yields and Strategy's STRC headwinds weigh on demand, but a Fed pause under Warsh against rising inflation, or a sovereign bond capitulation forcing central bank intervention, could prove a upside catalyst given bitcoin's perceived role as a decentralised counterparty hedge on sovereign default risk.
On-Chain: The market is increasingly behaving like a system in stasis despite exogenous macroeconomic pressure. Investor demand has faded across nearly every major venue, while the supply side is becoming progressively more inert as coins age into stronger, less reactive hands. This creates a narrow and fragile equilibrium where available liquidity is thin and price has become compressed around the market’s current midpoint near the $78k–$80k region. With investor attention acutely low, the market likely requires a meaningful price move to re-engage capital and define whether this range resolves into renewed upside momentum or another leg of downside discovery.

Chart of the Month

Performance

May 2026 was a tale of two halves for cryptoassets. The month opened with a vigorous recovery as bitcoin reclaimed the $80k mark, only to stall against a well-defined resistance cluster between $80k and $85k before sentiment and flows reversed sharply in the second half, leaving the market consolidating in a fragile but structurally constructive setup.

Early in the month, bitcoin crossed $80k for the first time since late January 2026. The move was largely mechanical, with short futures liquidations reaching approximately $42M over 24 hours and perpetual funding rates having been negative on 21 of 30 days in April, signalling excessive short positioning.

Global Bitcoin ETPs saw net inflows of +$166.5M. On-chain conditions improved meaningfully: Net Realized Profit/Loss flipped positive for the first time since late January, the sell-side risk ratio fell to its lowest level since October 2023, and long-term holders added approximately +125k BTC over the past month. The $80k–$81k zone, where the True Market Mean, short-term holder cost basis, and US spot Bitcoin ETF aggregate cost basis converge, was flagged as the critical “demarcation line” between bull and bear market.

The recovery extended further, with bitcoin outperforming both US equities and gold as major central banks kept rates unchanged despite rising inflation.

If this situation continues, it may provide a bullish macro backdrop for bitcoin as declining US real rates have historically been associated with bitcoin bull markets (Chart-of-the-month).

In mid-May, our in-house Cryptoasset Sentiment Index climbed to its highest reading in 12 months, with 13 of 15 indicators above their short-term trend, signalling stretched positioning and potential short-term buyer fatigue. CME Bitcoin Commercials Net Positioning compressed from -10.5% to -6.41% of open interest as short leverage unwound, providing a mechanical tailwind.

** The Cryptoasset Sentiment Index is a composite indicator consisting of 15 different sub-indicators covering sentiment, on-chain, derivatives, flows developments as well as sentiment in traditional financial markets. A 90-day rolling z-score is used to standardise and aggregate these sub-indicators.

Bitcoin rallied just under $83k on reports of possible progress toward a US–Iran de-escalation deal before reversing to a low of $72k. Attention also turned to the US CLARITY Act, with Polymarket odds for passage in 2026 rising to 75% ahead of the Senate Banking Committee mark-up on May 14th, a potential bullish catalyst given the prospect of greater regulatory clarity.

That constructive backdrop reversed in the second half of the month.

Bitcoin underperformed most traditional assets as global Bitcoin ETPs experienced -$1,031.8M in net outflows, and sentiment reset from elevated levels. The Cryptoasset Sentiment Index fell back to neutral after touching one of only seven extreme readings since its inception, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index re-entered "fear" territory.

Despite the price weakness, the structural picture continued to firm: long-term holder supply reached a new all-time high at approximately 14.85M BTC (~74.3% of supply), reinforcing that "hodling" has become the dominant market mechanic, a redistribution pattern historically associated with late-stage bear markets.

Bitcoin retraced toward $72k after being rejected at the 200-day moving average near $82k, while the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee on a 15–9 bipartisan vote.

Japanese JGB yields hit multi-decade highs, raising concerns about fiscal debt sustainability and the potential need for central bank intervention, a dynamic that could ultimately provide a tailwind for bitcoin via easier monetary conditions. Kevin Warsh, considered pro-bitcoin/pro-crypto, was also confirmed by the Senate to succeed Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair.

The month closed with bitcoin underperforming US equities while commodities sold off sharply amid signs of a renewed decline in geopolitical risks. Valuations moved to the centre of the debate, with the latest rebound in equities raising renewed concerns about a potential "bubble" in US equities.

In this context, bitcoin is still trading below its historical mean in terms of the market-value-to-realised-value (MVRV) ratio, the on-chain equivalent of a price-to-book multiple. Only 36% of bitcoin's historical MVRV observations were below the current reading, meaning bitcoin sits in the lower half of its historical distribution. By contrast, the price-to-book ratio of the NASDAQ 100 is trading near its highest level on record, with ~99% of historical observations below the current reading, one of the most extreme valuation divergences between bitcoin and US large-cap tech we have ever observed.

Bitcoin's already compressed valuations may provide some shock absorption in the event of further downside, whereas other hard asset alternatives, such as gold and US tech remain largely elevated in terms of valuations. Historically speaking, periods in which bitcoin has traded below iits mean MVRV value have tended to coincide with attractive forward returns.

Should the current concentration in US large-cap tech begin to unwind, bitcoin may stand to benefit from capital rotating out of stretched hard asset proxies into scarce, non-sovereign stores of value. That said, a potential correction in the NASDAQ 100 would most likely affect bitcoin negatively in the short term as well, given relatively high correlations.

Bottom Line: May 2026 saw bitcoin stage a mechanical recovery above $80k before stalling at the $80k–$85k bull-bear threshold and retracing to $72k on heavy ETP outflows and a sharp sentiment reset in the second half. While near-term price action remains fragile and macro-driven, the structural backdrop continues to firm, with long-term holder supply at all-time highs and bitcoin's MVRV valuation sitting below the levels currently observed for some other hard asset alternatives, such as US large-cap tech.

Macro Environment

The macro environment has been characterised by both bullish and bearish market signals.

While global equities have continued to make new all-time highs, sovereign bond yields have also continued to grind higher. In particular, Japanese bond yields have continued to make new record (30-year JGB yield) or multi-decade highs (10-year JGB yield) due to weak liquidity and ongoing capital flight by international investors which is evident in the continuous depreciation of the Yen.

It is quite likely that Japanese bond yields will continue to trend higher due to a combination of higher supply issuance of bonds and declining central bank (Bank of Japan) buying which remains a key risk scenario for risk assets like bitcoin in the short term.

In fact, the net supply of Japanese bonds is approaching 10% of GDP while other nation-states such as the US or UK are somewhat below that.

In this context, both the IMF and OECD have recently sounded the alarm bell on a ‘debt refinancing wall' this year.

More specifically, governments and companies are set to borrow $29 trillion from bond markets in 2026 - 17% higher than 2024, and double the amount ten years ago. 78% of OECD government borrowing in 2026 will go just to refinance existing debt. What is more is that the IMF implied that there is an elevated probability for a bond market capitulation. "Markets are becoming less forgiving" - investors are "increasingly questioning assumptions of unlimited sovereign borrowing capacity, even for large advanced economies."

This is essentially institutional language for "the bid is conditional now."

From our point-of-view, the Japanese bond market is particularly vulnerbale which is evident in the steep rise in bond yields. Moreover, the Japanese bond market is of particular importance for several reasons:

The Japanese JGB market is the second biggest sovereign bond market in the world after the US Treasury market (~$7.5 trillion market cap).
Japanese investors are the biggest holder of US Treasury bonds in large part due to the ‘Yen Carry Trade' (~$1.2 trillion in US Treasury holdings)
Japan has one of the highest fiscal debt-to-GDP ratios in the world (~230% of GDP)

Higher domestic bond yields in Japan make US Treasury yields and others – everything else equal – less attractive. In fact, at the time of writing this report at the end of May, 10-year Japanese bond yields are at 2.78% while Yen-hedged 10-year US Treasury yields are only at 2.19%. This relative spread is increasingly a risk for the infamous ‘Yen Carry Trade' and a may lead to a reptriation of Japanese capital from US Treasuries and other international bond markets.

30-year US Treasury yields have recently climbed to the highest level since 2007 as well and US 10-year Treasury yields are close to breaching their cycle highs (of around 5%) reached in mid-2023.

In general, sovereign risks remain relatively elevated with 10-year swap spreads – a measure of sovereign risk premia – at their highest level since the Euro crisis in 2011/12 across major sovereign bonds:

We think that a capitulation in the sovereign bond market may provide a significant upside catalyst for bitcoin and cryptoassets, especially if major central banks would be forced to intervene and provide liquidity to safeguard financial stability.

In this context, Japanese JGBs, UK Gilts, and French OATs appear to be most vulnerable as these government securities exhibit the lowest liquidity among major sovereign bonds.

Historically speaking, although bitcoin tends to be an inferior equity risk hedge relative to gold, it has outperformed gold as US sovereign bond hedge in the past.

More specifically, from a quantiative point-of-view, bitcoin exhibits a lower historical correlation to US Treasury bonds than gold and also outperformed gold during Treasury down days, i.e. when US Treasury bonds generated a negative performance – a phenomenon we call the ‘Bitcoin-Bond-Condrum'.

Moreover, bitcoin can be considered a Credit Default Swaps (CDS) on sovereign bonds since there is no central issuer and the network is decentralised.

In fact, a theoretical model first proposed by Foss (2021), suggests bitcoin's ‘fair value' is approximately ~$224k already today if adopted as "portfolio insurance" for G20 sovereign defaults. Note that this is a model-implied illustrative figure, not a price target or forecast.

Based on this model, bitcoin's ‘fair value' as a sovereign default hedge is dependent on the weighted default probability and the market cap of the ‘insured' sovereign bonds.

That said, higher bond yields and tighter financial conditions may also affect bitcoin negatively in the short-term as it affects one of the key institutional buyers – Strategy. Higher global bond yields tend to make Strategy's STRC perpetual preferred equity dividends less attractive – which has been a key engine of Strategy's most recent bitcoin purchases.

In fact, Strategy buys have accounted for almost 2/3rds of institutional demand via global treasury companies and bitcoin ETPs in 2026 so far.

More recently, STRC has been trading significantly below par which implies that Strategy either needs to raise its dividend to raise its price above par or pause further issuances of STRC and its bitcoin acquisitions until yields normalise again.

Another key development is the takeover of Kevin Warsh as new Fed governeur – he was officially sworn in on the 22nd of May 2026 to succeed Jerome Powell for a 4-year term. It is worth noting that Warsh appears to be be slightly more hawkish than than Powell based on his very latest speech at the Senate Banking Committee (see natural language analysis below).

In this context, it is worth highlighting that the most recent rise in the US 10-year yield was mostly due to a rise in real expected policy rates – i.e. higher rate hike expectations.

However, as pointed out in our previous Bitcoin Macro Investor report, there is still a significant divergence between market-based inflation expectations (e.g. CPI swap rates) and commodity prices.

In other words, bond markets still remain somewhat complacent about inflation while the Strait of Hormuz still remains effectively closed based on real-time maratime shipping data. In this context, it is not surprising that the US's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) just experienced its biggest draw on record. This means that the supply deficit emanating from the closure continues to weigh heavily on global crude oil stockpiles.

Meanwhile, the Cleveland Fed CPI nowcast increased to 4.2% year-over-year signalling accelerating inflation dynamics in the US.

It seems as if sovereign bonds are entering a ‘perfect storm' of rising rate expectations, rising inflation expectations, and elevated sovereign risks. During this uncertain period, it is quite likely that risk assets like bitcoin may remain under pressure. However, there might be a positive catalyst for bitcoin from the monetary policy side.

Historically speaking, bitcoin tends to perform well during periods of declining real yields and tends to underperform during periods of rising real yields.

For instance, the bull run in 2021 was associated with declining real yields, while the bear market in 2022 was associated with rising real yields and tightening monetary policy.

In general, US real yields tend to be one of the best high-frequency indicators for the stance of monetary policy with rising real yields signalling tightening monetary policy and declining real yields signalling easing monetary policy. This is also shown in the following chart:

Real yields have been rather restrctive more recently which is also consistent with the ongoing consolidation in bitcoin.

That being said, if the Fed under Warsh holds rates steady due to rising sovereign risks while inflation rises, that alone could recreate a bullish macro backdrop for bitcoin due to declining real yields.

Despite all of these uncertainties surrounding sovereign bonds, equities have been doing relatively well with the S&P 500 hitting new all-time highs last month. The ongoing rally in equities is supported by rather strong earnings which also imply an ongoing recovery of the overall US economy.

Positive earnings revisions of the S&P 500 also imply a continuously strong ISM Manufacturing Index which may also provide a tailwind for bitcoin.

In this context, we are continung to observe a significant macro discount based on our model described in our previous Bitcoin Macro Investor report.

In other words, bitcoin continues to underprice current (rather positive) global growth expectations.

Bottom Line: The macro backdrop is caught between a sovereign bond market flashing red - with Japanese yields surging, a $29 trillion refinancing wall looming, and the IMF warning that markets are "less forgiving" - and resilient equities supported by strong earnings and positive growth revisions. Bitcoin may stay under pressure near-term as restrictive real yields and Strategy's STRC headwinds weigh on demand, but a Fed pause under Warsh against rising inflation, or a sovereign bond capitulation forcing central bank intervention, could prove a upside catalyst given bitcoin's perceived role as a decentralised counterparty hedge on sovereign default risk.

On-Chain Developments

A Digital Asset Ghost Town

Despite disorderly activity across developed sovereign debt markets, digital asset markets remain largely inert, with activity across on-chain, spot, derivatives, options, DAT, and ETF venues effectively sitting around yearly lows.

This broad decline in activity points to a sharp lack of investor attention toward digital assets. The macro backdrop appears to be pulling capital away from digital asset markets, leaving crypto markets unusually static.

This disengagement may also help explain why the attempted price breakout reversed over the course of the month. Without sufficient volume to support follow-through, the move struggled to sustain momentum.

This degree of investor apathy is also evident in on-chain profit- and loss-taking dynamics. At present, combined realised profit and realised loss in BTC terms remain severely muted with only 3.3% of trading days recording a lower throughput, reinforcing the view that investors remain largely disengaged from the current market setup.

To gauge the magnitude of investor exhaustion, we can utilise the Sell-Side Risk Ratio, which quantifies the size of liquidity flows relative to the asset's invested capital base.

At present, the ratio is sitting at generational lows, with only 0.5% of trading days recording a lower value. This creates a consistent signal across distinct market facets, each different in nature but pointing to the same conclusion. Digital asset markets remain historically illiquid, while investors display signs of extreme fatigue.

Notably, this is also visible across both Long- and Short-Term Holder variants of the sell-side risk ratio, suggesting that disengagement is not isolated to newer investors. Mature, tenured holders are also largely refusing to interact with the market, highlighting a notable synchronisation between two very different investor cohorts. Ultimately, illiquid markets create fragile backdrops, which have historically preceded sharp increases in realised volatility.

A Supply Sink

Supply and demand are two sides of the same equation. Having outlined the case for an acute collapse in investor demand, we now turn to supply-side dynamics to examine the other half of the picture.

Interestingly, the supply side is also tightening, a dynamic visible in price itself as the market becomes increasingly compressed within the prevailing range. The combination of tightening supply and weak demand is creating a fragile equilibrium in market forces.

The clearest evidence of this range acclimatisation comes from Bitcoin's 90-day trading range, which captures much of the market structure that has developed since the $60k cycle low. At present, price has traded in a tighter range on only 7.4% of days, highlighting the unusually narrow corridor that the market has been operating in

As investors remain inactive, coins continue to sit idle, ageing into long-term holder cohorts and becoming less likely to circulate within the current range.

Notably, LTH supply has reached an ATH of 14.9mn coins and is currently growing at 10.3x the rate of monthly new issuance, providing a useful scale comparison for the pace of supply absorption.

This suggests circulating supply is becoming increasingly constrained, as larger portions of coins move into statistically less price-sensitive ownership, with these holders, on balance, remaining unwilling to distribute within the prevailing price range.

We can assess this at a more granular level by examining the share of supply that has not moved for at least 1, 2, 3, and 5 years.

Supply last moved 1yr+: 60.5%
Supply last moved 2yr+: 48.5%
Supply last moved 3yr+: 42.9%
Supply last moved 5yr+: 33.0%

Notably, all cohorts are trending higher, further reinforcing the degree of inactivity across market participants, including holders sitting on substantial unrealised gains. Interestingly, the 5yr+ cohort is recording one of its largest 90-day increases, as coins acquired during the May 2021 Great Miner Migration, and left unspent since, are now ageing into this cohort.

Pathing Ahead

With the supply side meaningfully constrained and demand largely absent, the market remains at an important crossroads.

The macroeconomic backdrop, shaped by geopolitical shocks, rising bond yields, and elevated energy prices, continues to create uncertainty around current market dynamics. In such environments, assessing price behaviour around key levels can provide insight into whether investor confidence is returning or whether fragility and capitulation risk continue to dominate. Below are the main pricing levels we are utilising for reference.

True Market Mean: $78.2k, which estimates the average acquisition price of active investors by excluding supply considered lost or dormant, such as early miner and Satoshi-era coins.
Short-Term Holder Cost Basis: $78.1k, which represents the average purchase price of newer market entrants and has historically acted as a delineator between local bull and bear regimes.

These on-chain levels have historically represented macro and local bull-bear boundaries, respectively. At present, price has been unable to reclaim them despite repeated attempts. We can then compare them with the mean and median price of the current bear market to identify whether a broader midpoint is forming.

When using the October 6th ATH as the starting point of the current bear market, both the mean and median price across the bear market sit near $85k.

Applying the same heuristic to previous bear markets shows that decisive breakouts above these levels have historically coincided with the transition into new bull market cycles.

In simple terms, several independent measures are clustering in the same area, suggesting the $78k–$85k region remains the market's current midpoint of control.

On the technical side, the 90-day, 200-day, and 365-day moving averages provide a fast-to-slow framework for assessing trend momentum.

On the downside, the 90-day moving average at $73k aligns with the breakout point from the recent uptrend.

The 200-day moving average at $80.5k aligns closely with key on-chain cost-basis levels and has regularly been employed as a broad bull-bear regime indicator by technical analysts.

Above this, the 365-day moving average at $95k marks the next major upside resistance zone.

Furthermore, we can use Fibonacci drawdown levels as an additional technical cross-check. Rather than introducing a separate framework, these levels help validate whether the same key zones appear through an independent price-based lens.

Using Fibonacci drawdown levels anchored from the ATH, the 23.6% retracement at $95k aligns with the initial peak of the dead-cat bounce before the market descended into the bear regime, while also sitting close to the 365-day moving average.

The 38.2% retracement at $77.1k aligns closely with the current on-chain cost-basis cluster.

On the downside, the 50% retracement at $62.4k aligns more closely with the cycle-low region, marking it as an important structural support zone.

While volatility risks remain elevated, it is useful to identify the key downside reference levels that may become relevant should sentiment further deteriorate.

The Realised Price at $54.2k provides an estimate of the aggregate acquisition price across the full investor base, while the Median Realised Price at $64.3k captures the cost basis of the median holder.

Across prior late-stage bear markets, these measures have often served as important structural support zones, marking areas associated with broader market resets. Of note, the Median Realised Price was initially tagged during the February 5th capitulation. Despite this, these levels remain areas of interest, particularly with volatility so tightly coiled and the market still unable to decisively reclaim its midpoint.

Across these measures, a broader map of investor sentiment begins to emerge, with price reactions around each region providing insight into prevailing supply and demand conditions. The $78k–$80k region represents the current midpoint of control. Above this, the $83k–$85k region remains the first major resistance zone, while the $95k area marks a more meaningful shift toward risk-on conditions.

On the downside, the $73k level remains important from a technical perspective, as a loss of this level could bring the cycle low back into focus. Conversely, a constructive development would be the formation of a higher low around $73k, followed by a systematic reclaim of the upside resistance levels. Each successful reclaim would likely improve confidence among buyers, gradually re-engaging liquidity and, by extension, demand into the market.

Bottom Line: The market is increasingly behaving like a system in stasis despite exogenous macroeconomic pressure. Investor demand has faded across nearly every major venue, while the supply side is becoming progressively more inert as coins age into stronger, less reactive hands. This creates a narrow and fragile equilibrium where available liquidity is thin and price has become compressed around the market's current midpoint near the $78k–$80k region. With investor attention acutely low, the market likely requires a meaningful price move to re-engage capital and define whether this range resolves into renewed upside momentum or another leg of downside discovery.

Bottom Line

Performance: May 2026 saw bitcoin stage a mechanical recovery above $80k before stalling at the $80k–$85k bull-bear threshold and retracing to $72k on heavy ETP outflows and a sharp sentiment reset in the second half. While near-term price action remains fragile and macro-driven, the structural backdrop continues to firm, with long-term holder supply at all-time highs and bitcoin's MVRV valuation sitting below the levels currently observed for some other hard asset alternatives, such as US large-cap tech.
Macro: The macro backdrop is caught between a sovereign bond market flashing red - with Japanese yields surging, a $29 trillion refinancing wall looming, and the IMF warning that markets are "less forgiving" - and resilient equities supported by strong earnings and positive growth revisions. Bitcoin may stay under pressure near-term as restrictive real yields and Strategy's STRC headwinds weigh on demand, but a Fed pause under Warsh against rising inflation, or a sovereign bond capitulation forcing central bank intervention, could prove a upside catalyst given bitcoin's perceived role as a decentralised counterparty hedge on sovereign default risk.
On-Chain: The market is increasingly behaving like a system in stasis despite exogenous macroeconomic pressure. Investor demand has faded across nearly every major venue, while the supply side is becoming progressively more inert as coins age into stronger, less reactive hands. This creates a narrow and fragile equilibrium where available liquidity is thin and price has become compressed around the market’s current midpoint near the $78k–$80k region. With investor attention acutely low, the market likely requires a meaningful price move to re-engage capital and define whether this range resolves into renewed upside momentum or another leg of downside discovery.

Appendix

Cryptoasset Market Overview

Cryptoassets & Macroeconomy

Cryptoassets & Multiasset Portfolios

Cryptoasset Valuations

On-Chain Fundamentals

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