- There is a strong case to be made for Ethereum as a substitute for a high-growth tech investment.
- The outperformance of an optimized equity portfolio that includes Ethereum vis-à-vis a NASDAQ 100 benchmark amounted to around 10%-points per year since 2021 without significantly compromising on overall volatility or max drawdown of the pure equity portfolio
- We think that the market has yet to fully discount the performance potential of Ethereum (ETH) especially with regards to the potential price impact via the Ethereum ETF trading launch in the US
Becoming the next "Morningstar"
Equity fund managers are always on the lookout for new investment ideas that may help them to “beat the market”, i.e. outperform their respective equity index/benchmark.
In particular, US equity benchmarks are considered to be one of the best performing and most competitive equity benchmarks worldwide. In recent years, popular strategies have evolved around overweighting high growth quality stocks such as the “FAANGs” or the “Magnificent 7” in order to outperform major US indices like the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ 100.
This report presents a novel approach to structurally outperform a high-growth US equity benchmark like the NASDAQ 100 without compromising too much on risk by adding exposure to one of the fastest growing major cryptoassets – Ethereum.
What is Ethereum?
Ethereum represents a significant evolutionary step in the internet's development, transitioning from Web1 and Web2 to Web3 or the “Internet of Value.”
Since its inception in 2015, Ethereum has developed a diverse ecosystem of decentralized applications (dApps), notably in Decentralized Finance (DeFi).
In general, Ethereum is expected to dis-intermediate and disrupt the following industries:
- Banking & Payments
- Social Media / Marketing / Gaming
- Infrastructure (tokenisation)
- AI
Ethereum is similar to an app store or tech platform like Android or iOS where decentralized applications can be built on and assets can be transferred as easy as sending an Email.
Ethereum can be considered a new type of asset that covers multiple business reservoirs, extracting value from each via transaction fees/”taxes” from those who build on Ethereum and leverage the security and the tech platform.
Unique to Ethereum is the ability for investors to own a part of its value layer by investing into the Ethereum token (ETH), akin to owning shares in the foundational internet protocol TCP/IP.
Moreover, Ethereum investors can earn a yield like equity dividends by validating transactions – so-called “staking rewards”. In addition, the Ethereum protocol takes a certain amount of tokens out of circulation through its “burn” mechanism which is comparable to a stock buyback in equities.
It is no surprise that Ethereum (ETH) tends to be somewhat correlated with the performance of major equity indices such as the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ 100 but also offers diversification relative to pure equity allocations. For instance, the full sample correlation of Ethereum (ETH) to the S&P 500 is only around 0.31.
We therefore think that there is a strong case to be made for Ethereum as a substitute for a high-growth tech investment.
Read more in our special report on the investment case for Ethereum.
The numbers
The following chart and table present the performance of a plain-vanilla NASDAQ 100 (NDX) investment, an optimized portfolio consisting of NASDAQ 100 (NDX) and Ethereum (ETH) as well as a pure Ethereum (ETH) investment:
ETH performance includes staking returns; Past performance not indicative of future returns.
As one can see, an equity manager would have outperformed a pure NASDAQ 100 benchmark significantly by allocating approximately a quarter of this equity portfolio to Ethereum (ETH).
Optimized weights based on maximized Sharpe Ratio; Sample: Jan 2021 - Today
The outperformance vis-à-vis a NASDAQ 100 benchmark amounted to around 10%-points per year since 2021 without significantly compromising on overall volatility or max drawdown of the pure equity portfolio.
What is more is that Ethereum's “Price-to-Earnings” ratio implied by staking rewards (“dividends”) and burn rate (“buybacks”) is comparatively attractive relative to the Magnificent 7 stocks, despite very high expected returns for Ethereum over the coming 10 years:
12-months forward P/E for Equities; Data available as of close 2024-07-15
We don't think that the market has yet fully discounted the performance potential of Ethereum (ETH) especially with regards to the potential price impact via the Ethereum ETF trading launch in the US as analysed here.
Bottom Line
- There is a strong case to be made for Ethereum as a substitute for a high-growth tech investment.
- The outperformance of an optimized equity portfolio that includes Ethereum vis-à-vis a NASDAQ 100 benchmark amounted to around 10%-points per year since 2021 without significantly compromising on overall volatility or max drawdown of the pure equity portfolio
- We think that the market has yet to fully discount the performance potential of Ethereum (ETH) especially with regards to the potential price impact via the Ethereum ETF trading launch in the US
Informazioni importanti
Le informazioni contenute nel presente materiale hanno finalità esclusivamente illustrative o informative e non costituiscono consulenza in materia di investimenti, raccomandazione personalizzata, né un’offerta o sollecitazione al pubblico risparmio.
Il presente documento (che può assumere la forma di presentazione, comunicato stampa, post sui social media, articolo di blog, comunicazione audiovisiva o altro strumento analogo – di seguito, per semplicità, “Documento”) è emesso da Bitwise Europe GmbH (“BEU” o “l’Emittente”) ed è redatto in conformità alla normativa applicabile, incluse le disposizioni in materia di comunicazioni promozionali relative a strumenti finanziari.
Bitwise Europe GmbH, costituita secondo il diritto tedesco, è l’emittente degli Exchange Traded Products (“ETP”) descritti nel presente Documento ai sensi di un prospetto di base e delle relative condizioni definitive, eventualmente integrati nel tempo e approvati dalla Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin). L’approvazione del prospetto da parte di BaFin non costituisce un giudizio di merito sull’investimento né un’approvazione del presente contenuto da parte di CONSOB.
Prima di effettuare un investimento in prodotti emessi da BEU, è opportuno verificare con i propri consulenti professionali e con il proprio intermediario che tali prodotti siano disponibili nella propria giurisdizione e coerenti con il proprio profilo di rischio. Ogni decisione di investimento dovrebbe essere assunta tenendo conto della propria situazione personale, dopo aver ottenuto consulenza indipendente di natura finanziaria, fiscale e legale.
Capitale a rischio. Le cripto-attività sono strumenti ad elevato rischio e caratterizzati da elevata volatilità. Il valore degli investimenti in cripto-attività e in ETP con esposizione a cripto-attività può diminuire così come aumentare e gli investitori possono perdere parte o la totalità del capitale investito. Nessun sistema di garanzia o indennizzo protegge dalle perdite derivanti dall’andamento di mercato. Le performance passate non sono indicative di risultati futuri. Le dichiarazioni previsionali non costituiscono garanzia di risultati.
Prima di investire, si raccomanda di leggere attentamente il prospetto di base e le relative condizioni definitive, in particolare la sezione “Fattori di rischio”, disponibili sul sito https://bitwiseinvestments.eu/it/
L’accesso a determinati documenti può richiedere una dichiarazione in merito alla propria giurisdizione e alla propria categoria di investitore e può essere soggetto a ulteriori avvertenze e informazioni importanti.
Ulteriori informazioni sui rischi sono disponibili al seguente indirizzo: https://bitwiseinvestments.eu/it/risk-warning/
