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- Bitcoin consolidated this week after setting new all-time highs, with price momentum stalling following the Las Vegas Bitcoin Conference. While headlines like Pakistan’s Bitcoin Reserve and PSG’s treasury allocation offered support, Meta’s rejection of a BTC proposal and lack of fresh catalysts triggered short-term “bull fatigue.” Still, structural demand remained intact through ongoing ETF inflows and corporate adoption.
- Our Cryptoasset Sentiment Index reflected a neutral outlook, with 10 of 15 indicators above trend. Altcoin risk appetite improved, with 30% of tracked tokens outperforming BTC and Ethereum leading relative gains. However, risk appetite in traditional markets declined, as our Cross Asset Risk Appetite gauge fell from 0.32 to 0.20.
- Chart of the Week: Institutional buyers (ETFs and corporate treasuries) are now the dominant source of BTC demand in 2025. In contrast, retail investors remain the primary suppliers, highlighting a classic distribution-to-accumulation cycle that continues to shape this bull market.
Chart of the Week
Performance
Bitcoin consolidated this week after reaching new all-time highs the week prior. The market has not been able to sustain these fresh all-time highs though. Overall, it lacks any major new catalysts now that the world's largest Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas wrapped up last week without delivering truly market-moving news.
Among the highlights were Pakistan's plan to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Paris St Germain's decision to add Bitcoin to its corporate treasury. However, the elevated sentiment in the lead-up to the conference seems to have induced a short-term “bull fatigue,” making a brief price consolidation quite probable - especially after Meta's shareholders voted down the proposal to adopt Bitcoin for its treasury.
That being said, on-chain fundamentals still support a continuing bull market, as persistent US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and corporate treasury purchases continue to drain supply from exchanges. These two groups of buyers have been the biggest source of demand for bitcoins in 2025 so far (Chart-of-the-Week). At the same time, private individuals have been the main source of supply of bitcoins underscoring the notion that 2025 was mostly a classical distribution by retail investors and accumulation by institutional investors such as public companies and funds & ETPs.
It is quite likely that we will see continued demand from these two sources due to, firstly, an acceleration in global corporate adoption of bitcoin, secondly, the fact that most wealth management platforms remain largely underexposed to bitcoin and cryptoassets.
This will most likely entail very significant inflows into bitcoin ETPs as a recent study by Bitwise and UTXO has demonstrated.
In general, among the top 10 crypto assets TRON, Ethereum and BNB were the relative outperformers.
Overall, altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin increased from last week, with 30% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis. Furthermore, Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin last week.
Sentiment
Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” signals a moderate sentiment, reflective of the current “bull fatigue”.
At the moment, 10 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.
The BTC 3m Basis and BTC Exchange Inflows metrics had improved last week, while the Altseason index had a slight pull back, and the Crypto Hedge Fund Beta Index had reverted.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently signals a “Neutral” level of sentiment as of this morning, improving from last week.
Performance dispersion among cryptoassets remained stagnant last week, signalling that altcoins have kept their correlation with the performance of Bitcoin.
Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has increased from last week, with around 30% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis. Furthermore, Ethereum managed to outperform Bitcoin last week.
In general, increasing (decreasing) altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of increasing (decreasing) risk appetite within cryptoasset markets and the latest altcoin outperformance signals a bullish risk appetite at the moment.
Sentiment in traditional financial markets as measured by our in-house measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) has decreased further, moving from 0.32 to 0.20.
Fund Flows
Weekly fund flows into global crypto ETPs have decelerated, though net inflows continued at a more moderate pace last week.
Global crypto ETPs saw around +526.0 mn USD in weekly net inflows across all types of cryptoassets, after +3350.0 mn USD in net inflows the previous week.
Global Bitcoin ETPs have experienced net inflows totalling +238.9 mn USD last week, of which -177.5 mn USD in net outflows were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) in the US experienced net outflows, totalling -104.4 mn USD last week.
In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) experienced minor net inflows equivalent to +1.0 mn USD, while the Bitwise Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) experienced minor net inflows of +1.5 mn USD.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has posted net outflows of -134.4 mn USD. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), however, experienced net inflows of around +584.5 mn USD last week.
Meanwhile, flows into global Ethereum ETPs continued its positive trend last week, with around +310.9 mn USD in net inflows last week
US Ethereum spot ETFs, also recorded net inflows of around +285.8 mn USD on aggregate. The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), experienced minor net outflows of around -4.6 mn USD last week.
The Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW) in the US had had inflows of around +4.6 mn USD last week.
In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) saw net inflows of +6.3 mn USD while the Bitwise Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) saw net inflows of around +10.3 mn USD on aggregate.
Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum continued to experience net outflows last week, with around -14.6 mn USD in global net outflows.
Furthermore, thematic & basket crypto ETPs followed suit and experienced net outflows of around -9.1 mn USD on aggregate last week. The Bitwise MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) had sticky AuM (+/- 0 mn USD).
Global crypto hedge funds have increased their market exposure to Bitcoin. The 20-days rolling beta of global crypto hedge funds' performance to Bitcoin consolidated to around 0.68 per yesterday's close, up from 0.61 from the week before.
On-Chain Data
Broadly speaking, Bitcoin's on-chain activity has remained slightly bullish last week.
Bitcoin spot exchanges continued to see selling pressure increase, with net selling volumes increasing to approximately -$1.78 bn compared to -$0.52 bn two weeks ago.
The Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), which tracks the difference between buying and selling volumes, remained mostly negative throughout last week.
In terms of supply dynamics, we are observing a different pattern. Whales have sent bitcoins to exchanges on a net basis, indicating a slight increase in whale selling pressure. More specifically, BTC whales sent +6,652 BTC to exchanges last week. Network entities that possess at least 1,000 Bitcoin are referred to as whales.
Nonetheless, based on recent data from Glassnode, the overall downward trend in exchange-held Bitcoin reserves remains intact. The current level stands at 2.98 mn BTC, representing approximately 14.9% of the total circulating supply. This figure continues to reflect the broader trend of Bitcoin moving off exchanges, with current levels last observed in December 2022.
Furthermore, a measure of “apparent demand” for Bitcoin over the past 30 days has continued its positive trend, reaching levels of demand seen last in January earlier this year.
Futures, Options & Perpetuals
Last week, BTC futures open interest decreased last week by -5.7K BTC across all exchanges, and by ---10.2K BTC on CME Exchange. Perpetual open interest decreased by around -4.6k BTC.
BTC perpetual funding rates remained positive last week, spiking to 0.01% last Monday, indicating a bullish sentiment among traders in the perpetual futures market.
In general, when the funding rate is positive (negative), long (short) positions periodically pay short (long) positions, which is indicative of bullish (bearish) sentiment.
The BTC 3-months annualised basis maintained around 7.9% p.a. averaged across various futures exchanges last week. BTC option open interest decreased by around -56.4k BTC. The put-call open interest ratio had spiked to 0.64 before ending the week at 0.57.
The 1-month 25-delta skew for BTC rebounded sharply during the week, rising from -5.47% to a peak of +1.10% before closing at -2.92%. This intraweek shift in the skew reflected a temporary surge in bearish sentiment, as traders briefly favoured put options over calls. Although the skew ended the week still in negative territory, the overall move suggested a softening in demand for upside calls.
BTC option implied volatilities remained muted last week, while the 1-month realized volatility ended the week by increasing to 31.62%.
At the time of writing, implied volatilities of 1-month ATM Bitcoin options are currently at around 43.99% p.a.
Bottom Line
- Bitcoin consolidated this week after setting new all-time highs, with price momentum stalling following the Las Vegas Bitcoin Conference. While headlines like Pakistan’s Bitcoin Reserve and PSG’s treasury allocation offered support, Meta’s rejection of a BTC proposal and lack of fresh catalysts triggered short-term “bull fatigue.” Still, structural demand remained intact through ongoing ETF inflows and corporate adoption.
- Our Cryptoasset Sentiment Index reflected a neutral outlook, with 10 of 15 indicators above trend. Altcoin risk appetite improved, with 30% of tracked tokens outperforming BTC and Ethereum leading relative gains. However, risk appetite in traditional markets declined, as our Cross Asset Risk Appetite gauge fell from 0.32 to 0.20.
- Chart of the Week: Institutional buyers (ETFs and corporate treasuries) are now the dominant source of BTC demand in 2025. In contrast, retail investors remain the primary suppliers, highlighting a classic distribution-to-accumulation cycle that continues to shape this bull market.
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