This report is for professional investors and information purposes only. Persons without professional investment experience should not rely on it. Not investment advice or a personal recommendation. Cryptoassets are high risk and volatile and you may lose all capital invested. See full risk information at the end of this document.
- Performance: Cross-asset performance staged a sharp reversal, with cryptoassets outperforming as a looming US-Iran peace deal drained geopolitical risk out of the system. Bitcoin based around $61k mid-week before rallying close to 3% to roughly $65k in early Monday trading, while equities recovered most of their recent losses and gold - the mirror image - slipped towards $4,000/oz, heading for a second consecutive weekly decline.
- Cryptoasset Sentiment Index: Our Cryptoasset Sentiment Index has recovered from last week's deeply bearish readings - the most pessimistic since February - and is now signalling slightly bullish sentiment as of this morning. The earlier sentiment washout made a short-term reversal likely, although with the broader backdrop still fragile we would treat the current bounce as a relief rally rather than a confirmed trend change.
- Chart-of-the-Week: On the Mayer Multiple (price relative to the 200-day moving average), Bitcoin has fallen back below 1.0 while Nvidia continues to trade at a sizeable premium to its own 200-day average. Measured against their respective long-term trends, Bitcoin screens as deep value precisely while semiconductor and AI equities remain extended, leaving the relative-value gap between Bitcoin and the most crowded corner of the equity market among the widest on this metric.
Chart of the Week
Performance
Cross-asset performance staged a sharp reversal and cryptoassets outperformed over the past week.
After the violent risk-off episode that culminated in the prior Monday's circuit-breaker on the KOSPI, sentiment turned decisively as the prospect of a US–Iran peace deal took hold.
Equities tracked towards a positive week on news that a deal might be near, one that would lift oil sanctions on Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the S&P 500 recovering most of its recent losses.
Bitcoin followed the same script: having based around $61k mid-week, it climbed to its highest level in nearly two weeks, rising close to 3% in early Monday morning trading to roughly $65,400. All of this happened after we had observed the most bearish sentiment readings since February last week which made a short-term reversal likely.
Gold, by contrast, was the mirror image, slipping towards the $4,000/oz area and heading for a second consecutive weekly decline, down close to 10% over the past month on expectations of higher-for-longer rates.
The message from these performances is clear. As geopolitical risk drained out of the system, the classic safe-haven was sold while risk assets, equities and Bitcoin alike, were bought.
The AI and semiconductor complex remains the epicentre of this volatility. The recent drawdown was triggered precisely here: Broadcom beat its Q2 estimates and posted AI-chip revenue growth of 143%, yet the stock fell more than 12% in a single session, a striking disconnect between fundamentals and price action that speaks to how richly the sector is priced.
We would flag the risk of a "mid-cycle slowdown" in AI, a thesis recently articulated by Jordi Visser. AI demand is now so large that it may begin to outstrip supply, with bottlenecks and shortages potentially slowing the earnings of these companies, not because demand is absent but because it is too big. In Visser's framing, the new regime is one of "bubbles, parabolas, and speed crashes," with sharp and transient corrections rather than a multi-year bear market.
The IPO pipeline reinforces the point. SpaceX came to market on Friday, and Anthropic filed confidentially earlier this month, with OpenAI expected to follow in the coming weeks. Companies tend to list when valuations and risk appetite are richest, so this rush of marquee names is, in our view, a classic marker of, at least, short-term exuberance.
Together these three deals could demand north of $200bn from public markets, against a total US IPO market of roughly $45bn in all of 2025. A capital call of that magnitude has the potential to temporarily ‘suck the oxygen', that is, the liquidity, out of the room, weighing on Bitcoin and other risk assets even if only for a brief period.
This brings us to relative value. On the Mayer Multiple, the ratio of price to the 200-day moving average, where a reading below 1.0 has historically marked an accumulation zone and values above 2.4 signalled bubble territory, Bitcoin has fallen back below 1.0, having sat just under its long-term trend at around 0.94 in late May before this latest leg lower.
Applying the same trend-deviation lens to Nvidia tells the opposite story: the poster child of the AI trade continues to trade at a sizeable premium to its own 200-day average.
In other words, measured against its own long-term trend, Bitcoin now screens as deep value precisely while semiconductor and AI equities remain extended (Chart-of-the-week).
On this metric, the gap between Bitcoin's valuation and that of the most crowded corner of the equity market is among the widest in its history.
The proximate catalyst for this morning's risk-on tone is the apparent breakthrough in US–Iran negotiations. Per the latest terms circulating via The Kobeissi Letter, the framework would extend the US-Iran ceasefire for 60 days, open a 60-day negotiation period on Iran's nuclear programme, remove the US naval blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, commit the US to discussing sanctions relief and the release of frozen Iranian funds, and deliver a permanent end to fighting on all fronts including Lebanon, with a final agreement to be signed on 19 June in Switzerland.
As a result, WTI crude fell roughly 3% to around $85 per barrel on reduced supply risk, and cryptoassets rallied, with Ether up as much as 3.7% to around $1,731 and smaller tokens such as Solana and XRP posting larger gains. We would caution, however, that sentiment remains fragile beneath the surface. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 18, in "Extreme Fear," and Bitcoin remains in a technical downtrend below its key moving averages and investor cost bases. This is, for now, still a relief rally within a downtrend.
Looking ahead, the key catalyst this week is Wednesday's FOMC decision, notably the first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, with the policy rate at 3.50%–3.75%.
A hold is all but fully priced, with prediction markets putting the odds at roughly 99%, and Fed Funds futures now discount essentially no change for the remainder of the year.
The market has repriced sharply in a hawkish direction in recent weeks, pricing out the cuts it had assumed and at times pushing hike odds above 50% for later in 2026, as April CPI ran at 3.8% year-on-year, the hottest reading in nearly three years.
The risk, in our view, is one of complacency. With the rate decision itself a near-certainty, the action will be in the guidance, the dot plot, and the press conference. Given Warsh's "regime change" rhetoric on inflation discipline, the asymmetry skews towards a hawkish surprise, and any such surprise would force a further repricing of the rate path that has been the principal headwind for both Bitcoin and high-valuation equities.
In general, among the top 10 crypto assets Hyperliquid, Solana, and ZCash were the relative outperformers. Ethereum slightly underperformed bitcoin last week.
Sentiment
Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has recovered into neutral territory following a negative spike in the middle of last week.
At the moment, 10 out of 15 indicators remain above their short-term trend.
Notably, Bitcoin's one-month implied volatility, funding rate and exchange inflows all turned positive, reversing last week's negative readings, suggesting that investor speculation, alongside appetite for leverage and derivatives, has picked up once again. However, exchange inflows often tend to mean investors may be ready to take profits as investors sell into a short-term bounce.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has increased significantly last week from its lows not seen since beginning of April. Although as of this morning, still remains in the “extreme fear”.
Performance dispersion slightly declined last week as altcoins remain highly correlated to Bitcoin. Although note that the AI subsector bucks this trend, largely driven by Bittensor, Venice, Near and their peers, as decentralised training comes to the forefront of investors’ minds amidst the US Administration banning Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for US foreign nationals.
When dispersion decreased, it may indicate that the market appears to be driven by a less diverse set of narratives which, in our analysis, has historically been associated with periods of declining risk appetite in prior market cycles.
Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin increased slightly to 25% of our tracked altcoins in the index. Ethereum underperformed bitcoin last week.
Sentiment in traditional financial markets as measured by our in-house measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) declined slightly from 0.58 to 0.57 over the past week, signalling that risk appetite is mostly unchanged in traditional markets.
CME Bitcoin Commercials Net Positioning shows that the difference between long and short CME Bitcoin futures contracts. The reading has fallen to record lows of around –14.14% of open interest, suggesting that investors are cautious in the short term, either hedging for, or nakedly positioned for, near-term downside. That said, any reversal could lead to upside volatility. All in all, Bitcoin and broader crypto sentiment, leverage and speculation improved supporting week-to-date outperformance relative to traditional asset classes. Yet, investors still anticipate short-term downside and are the most heavily positioned for it since records began. It is worth noting, however, that this could be considered a crowded trade and may prompt short-term upside volatility should anything reverse.
Fund Flows
Net outflows from global crypto ETPs declined last week with only around -33.9 mn USD across all types of cryptoassets, after -1,823.1 mn USD in net outflows the previous week.
Global Bitcoin ETPs continued to experience net outflows of –189.1 mn USD last week, of which –322.9 mn USD in net outflows were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) in the US experienced net inflows of +6.2 mn USD last week.
In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) experienced net outflows equivalent to –0.3 mn USD, as the Bitwise Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) experienced net inflows of around +3.9 mn USD.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) posted net outflows of –87.9 mn USD whereas, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) experienced sharp net outflows of around –355.1 mn USD last week.
Meanwhile, global Ethereum ETPs experienced +31 mn USD in net inflows last week, of which US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows of around –43.5 mn USD on aggregate.
The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) posted net outflows of –17.4 mn USD, whilst the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) saw net outflows of –7.2 mn USD.
The Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW) in the US experienced net inflows of +3.0 mn USD last week.
In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) recorded net inflows of +0.8 mn USD, whilst the Bitwise Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) saw net inflows of +0.4 mn USD.
Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum also saw net inflows of +12.8 mn USD last week.
Thematic & basket crypto ETPs posted net inflows of +111.3 mn USD on aggregate last week. The Bitwise MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) recorded minor net inflows of +0.3 mn USD last week.
To sum up, this week's crypto outflows were led by Bitcoin US ETFs (IBIT's -355.1 mn USD and GBTC's -87.9 mn USD). Yet Ethereum, Altcoins Ex-ETH, and basket and thematic products all saw net inflows, suggesting a degree of wider dispersion in crypto risk appetite, in line with improved sentiment.
On-Chain Data
Following last week's crash to $59k, Bitcoin has experienced a local relief rally, rising to $64k. Price has since begun to oscillate within this range as the market continues to digest the magnitude of the recent move.
We can quantify the scale of the move, and the degree of pent-up volatility discharged, by assessing the 7-day percentage change across short-end realised volatility tenors:
- Realised Volatility 1-Week: 133.1% change, with 6.7% of trading days recording a larger increase
- Realised Volatility 2-Week: 63.5% change, with 7.6% of trading days recording a larger increase
- Realised Volatility 1-Month: 41.4% change, with 4.9% of trading days recording a larger increase
However, the percentage changes remain far more tempered across longer-duration tenors, suggesting that while local conditions point toward a period of sideways consolidation and recovery, the broader macro move may not yet be fully discharged.
On a broader basis, the downward move was not isolated to Bitcoin, with the majority of digital assets also experiencing stress as investors locked in sizeable losses. The median magnitude of loss realised per coin spent fell to –7%, –14%, and –18% across large-cap (≥$1bn), mid-cap ($100mn–$1bn), and small-cap (<$100mn) assets, respectively. Only 3.4%, 7%, and 6% of observations have recorded weaker spending dynamics, respectively.
Turning back to Bitcoin specifically, aggregate investor stress remains elevated, with the value of capital held at a loss estimated at approximately $851bn, equivalent to around 79% of all invested value. In addition, the recent move lower has pushed the percentage of circulating supply in profit down to 47.5%, with only 13% of trading days recording a lower reading. Together, these measures highlight the severity of investor balance-sheet stress from both a supply and dollar-denominated perspective.
Furthermore, the 30-day change in the percentage of supply held in profit has declined by 16.4%, with only 2.9% of trading days recording a more severe deterioration in profitability conditions. This observation is also visible across both Long- and Short-Term Holder cohorts (LTH and STH), representing mature and newer investors, respectively, with both groups seeing large portions of supply move into loss. This suggests the recent correction has affected a wide spectrum of investors.
However, the majority of Long-Term Holders have remained steadfast, with HODLing still the dominant behaviour across the cohort. While the newest LTHs, aged 6–12 months, continue to capitulate, coins are still maturing into the cohort at a faster rate than they are being spent. As a result, LTH supply has reached an all-time high of 14.9mn BTC, suggesting that maturation dynamics remain stronger than the cohort's rate of distribution.
The Realised Price, representing the market's average cost basis, and the 200-week moving average have historically provided useful proxies for terminal cycle-low regions during deep bear markets. These levels currently sit at $53.5k and $62k, respectively, with our base case being that terminal valuation forms somewhere within this range. However, in the event of further downside, the LTH Realised Price at $48k remains the next key pricing level below.
To the upside, the True Market Mean at $77.2k, representing the average purchase price of active investors, and the Short-Term Holder cost basis at $73.1k, representing the average purchase price of newer investors, have historically marked important macro and local market midpoints. Historically, a decisive reclaim of these levels has been a positive signal for renewed market momentum and a potential return of risk-on conditions.
Taken together, the market remains in a fragile post-capitulation state, with the recent decline generating one of the sharpest deteriorations in investor profitability of the cycle. Nevertheless, across multiple on-chain and price-based valuation frameworks, the market continues to trade in some of its lowest historical percentiles, as discussed in our recent note here.
At the same time, the dominance of HODLing among Long-Term Holders suggests that the most severe capitulation remains concentrated among newer investors and recently transitioned LTHs. From here, the Realised Price ($53.5k) and 200-week moving average ($62k) remain the key downside references, while reclaiming the Short-Term Holder cost basis ($73.1k) and True Market Mean ($77.2k) would be required to signal a more durable return of upside momentum.
Futures, Options & Perpetuals
Over the past week, BTC perpetual futures open interest declined by approximately -8.06k BTC, while CME futures open interest rose by around +7.79k BTC versus the prior week. That combination suggests leverage continued to come out of offshore perpetuals, while positioning in more institutionally oriented venues increased meaningfully.
Aggregate futures liquidations fell sharply from the prior week. In total, liquidations reached roughly $2.44bn over the week, versus $7.15bn previously, with long liquidations of $1.12bn and short liquidations of $1.31bn.
After last week's sharp crypto selloff and Bitcoin's bounce from the 200-week moving average, BTC recovered modestly. The move was supported by the successful SpaceX IPO and reports that the US and Iran were close to a deal, which helped improve broader risk sentiment. Liquidity is now forming around $63k on the downside and $65k on the upside, giving the market a tighter range to trade against in the near term.
Perpetual funding rates, measured on a 7-day moving average, ended the week lower at around +1.76% annualised, down from +5.97% last week. That suggests futures positioning has become less aggressive, with leveraged long demand cooling despite the modest recovery in spot.
At the same time, the BTC 3-month annualised basis ticked down slightly to around +3.07%. That leaves the futures curve still modestly positive, but flatter than last week, reinforcing the view that positioning has improved after the deleveraging event without yet signalling a strong bullish impulse over the next few months.
In options markets, BTC Deribit options open interest increased modestly by roughly +10.3k BTC, bringing total open interest up to 428.6k BTC. The Deribit put-to-call open interest ratio decreased slightly to 0.60, while the equivalent metric across IBIT options moved slightly higher to 0.71 by week's end.
Taken together, these moves suggest options exposure rebuilt modestly while positioning became more mixed across crypto-native and ETF-linked options markets. The decline in the Deribit put-to-call ratio points to less relative demand for downside protection among crypto-native participants, while the move higher in the IBIT ratio suggests ETF-linked options investors remained somewhat more defensive.
The 25-delta skew moved slightly lower across the term structure during the week. That suggests demand for downside protection eased modestly, consistent with the stabilisation in spot following last week's sharp liquidation event.
Total GEX, on a 7-day moving average basis, decreased from -$1.09bn to -$2.50bn. This suggests dealer positioning has become more negative again, increasing the potential for hedging flows to amplify moves around nearby strike levels. In practical terms, the market may now be more mechanically reactive than it was a week ago.
Dealer gamma exposure also remains concentrated around important nearby levels, with the bulk of negative gamma still clustered around the $65k strike. That leaves the market most sensitive to a renewed move towards that level, particularly if spot pushes back into the upper end of the current liquidity range. By contrast, positive gamma has moved closer to the $63k area, suggesting stabilising dealer flows may sit nearer to downside support.
In short, Bitcoin stabilised after last week's sharp deleveraging, bouncing from its 200-week moving average as risk sentiment improved on the successful SpaceX IPO and reports of progress toward a US-Iran deal. Liquidations fell sharply to $2.44bn from $7.15bn, while perpetual funding cooled to +1.76%, suggesting leverage has been rebuilt more cautiously. With CME open interest rising, basis still positive, options positioning mixed and dealer gamma more negative again, prices remain sensitive around the $63k to $65k zone.
Bottom Line
- Performance: Cross-asset performance staged a sharp reversal, with cryptoassets outperforming as a looming US-Iran peace deal drained geopolitical risk out of the system. Bitcoin based around $61k mid-week before rallying close to 3% to roughly $65k in early Monday trading, while equities recovered most of their recent losses and gold - the mirror image - slipped towards $4,000/oz, heading for a second consecutive weekly decline.
- Cryptoasset Sentiment Index: Our Cryptoasset Sentiment Index has recovered from last week's deeply bearish readings - the most pessimistic since February - and is now signalling slightly bullish sentiment as of this morning. The earlier sentiment washout made a short-term reversal likely, although with the broader backdrop still fragile we would treat the current bounce as a relief rally rather than a confirmed trend change.
- Chart-of-the-Week: On the Mayer Multiple (price relative to the 200-day moving average), Bitcoin has fallen back below 1.0 while Nvidia continues to trade at a sizeable premium to its own 200-day average. Measured against their respective long-term trends, Bitcoin screens as deep value precisely while semiconductor and AI equities remain extended, leaving the relative-value gap between Bitcoin and the most crowded corner of the equity market among the widest on this metric.
Appendix
Data subject to change
Combined positioning = futures and options in % of Ol
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