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This report is for professional investors and information purposes only. Persons without professional investment experience should not rely on it. Not investment advice or a personal recommendation. Cryptoassets are high risk and volatile and you may lose all capital invested. See full risk information at the end of this document.
- Performance: Last week, cryptoassets outperformed traditional assets amid a renewed tightening in global financial conditions - Bitcoin advanced by +1.0% while the S&P 500 retreated by -0.6%, as rising energy prices and bond yields weighed on risk assets. Meanwhile, global crypto ETPs recorded their third consecutive week of positive net inflows, albeit still significantly below Q4 2025 bull market levels.
- Sentiment: Our in-house Cryptoasset Sentiment Index remained in positive territory last week and continues to signal a slightly bullish sentiment.
- Chart-of-the-Week: Bitcoin continues to demonstrate remarkable outperformance and resilience vis-à-vis US mega cap stocks such as the Magnificent 7 and SpaceX (SPCX) - a relative strength that is all the more notable in the context of tightening financial conditions and consistent with our view of Bitcoin as the "canary in the macro coal mine."
Chart of the Week
Performance
Last week, cryptoassets managed to outperform traditional assets amid a renewed tightening in global financial conditions. While the S&P 500 retreated by -0.6% over the week, Bitcoin advanced by +1.0%, once again demonstrating relative resilience in a challenging macro environment. Meanwhile, Brent crude briefly crossed the 100 USD/bbl mark and US 10-year Treasury yields rose back above 4.7%, underscoring the twin headwinds of higher energy prices and higher bond yields that risk assets are currently facing.
One of the most encouraging developments last week was the significant reversal in ETP fund flows: Global crypto ETPs have now recorded three consecutive weeks of positive net inflows. That being said, inflows still remain significantly below the levels observed during the bull market in Q4 2025, implying that broader institutional risk appetite has not yet fully returned.
It is also interesting to see the continued outperformance and resilience of Bitcoin vis-à-vis US mega cap stocks such as the Magnificent 7 and also SpaceX (SPCX), which has mostly been underperforming since its IPO. This relative strength is remarkable in the context of tightening financial conditions (Chart-of-the-week).
In this context, one of our long-held views is that Bitcoin is the "canary in the macro coal mine" that tends to anticipate changes in financial conditions well in advance – both to the downside and to the upside. Hence, it is possible that bitcoin may already anticipate a renewed period of easing monetary policy amid the downside in the stock market.
In fact, financial conditions have been tightening further more recently on account of a renewed rise in energy prices and bond yields. More specifically, the US 10-year Treasury yield crossed 4.7% again while Brent also moved above 100 USD/bbl last week, although oil prices have come down again more recently as strikes by both the US and Iran appear to have been halted temporarily.
The renewed rise in energy prices poses a risk to US inflation dynamics that could prompt additional rate hikes by the Fed in the short term. At the time of writing on early Monday morning, Fed Funds Futures are pricing in around 1.6 rate hikes until the end of 2026. The FOMC is set to convene on Wednesday this week (29th of July), although economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect no change in the Fed's policy rate at this meeting.
Meanwhile, leading indicators are sending mixed signals: High-frequency inflation gauges like Truflation have signalled a deceleration in US inflation dynamics more recently, while high-frequency labour market indicators such as the ASA Staffing Index have pointed towards an improvement in US jobs growth. In other words, leading inflation and labour market data currently paint an ambiguous macro picture.
As outlined in our previous weekly reports, the fact that Bitcoin has been experiencing a 50%+ drawdown since October last year has been a warning sign for the overall stock market. That being said, we expect Bitcoin to find support earlier than other risk assets - firstly, due to its leading characteristics, and secondly, due to the fact that it already reflects a significant amount of negative macro news, as demonstrated in our latest Bitcoin Macro Investor report. Besides, relative valuations also remain attractive, especially compared to major semiconductor stocks like Nvidia.
In general, among the top 10 crypto assets Ethereum, TRON, and XRP were the relative outperformers. Ethereum also outperformed bitcoin last week.
Sentiment
Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” increased significantly and now sits firmly within the positive sentiment bracket.
At the moment, 11 out of 15 indicators remain above their short-term trend.
The Altseason Index and BTC funding rate both flipped from negative to positive, suggesting that speculation is returning to the derivatives markets in Bitcoin and longer-tail altcoins, even as Bitcoin and altcoin ex-ETH products recorded only tepid net flows. Given that this strength is derivatives-driven, ETP flows will need to follow through amidst weak summer volumes.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index increased to 33/100, the highest since the beginning of June, although it declined slightly to 30/100 and remains firmly in ‘fear' territory.
Performance dispersion increased slightly last week, led by DeFi (+10.6%) and meme’s (8%) with gaming tokens declined on average –2%.
When dispersion increases, it may indicate that the market appears to be driven by a more diverse set of narratives which, in our analysis, has historically been associated with periods of increasing risk appetite in prior market cycles.
Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin increased slightly to 50% of our tracked altcoins in the index. Ethereum outperformed bitcoin last week. This is consistent with better sentiment and more dispersion.
Sentiment in traditional financial markets as measured by our in-house measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) decreased from 0.64 to 0.50 over the past week, signalling a slight contraction in risk appetite. Hence the subdued net global BTC and Altcoin Ex-ETH ETP flows. Ethereum’s net flows still represent idiosyncratic momentum related to the “commercialisation of Ethereum” and the tokenisation and AI tailwinds.
The CME Bitcoin Commercials Net Positioning metric shows the difference between long and short CME Bitcoin futures contracts. The reading has declined slightly to -14.31% of open interest, from -14.77%, suggesting that overall positioning has changed little: a cautious outlook, with downside hedges remaining in play. Should this leverage unwind further, it could prove a boon for Bitcoin.
All in all, improved sentiment, Fear and Greed, and dispersion suggest that risk appetite is building, although it appears fickle given the lack of spot net ETP flows to support the base, alongside a declining CARA that could weigh on prices in the near term.
Fund Flows
Global crypto ETPs experienced around +194.9 mn USD in net inflows last week, across all types of cryptoassets, after +100.5 mn USD in net inflows the previous week.
Global Bitcoin ETPs experienced net inflows of +93.2 mn USD last week, of which +18.1 mn USD in net inflows were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) in the US experienced net inflows of +7.2 mn USD last week.
In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) experienced net outflows equivalent to -2.7 mn USD, as the Bitwise Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) experienced net inflows of around +2.8 mn USD.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) posted net outflows of -83.7 mn USD whereas, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) experienced net outflows of around -95.5 mn USD last week.
Meanwhile, global Ethereum ETPs experienced +107.8 mn USD in net inflows last week, of which US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net inflows of around +101 mn USD on aggregate.
The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) posted no net inflows or outflows, whilst the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) saw net inflows of +96.3 mn USD.
The Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW) in the US experienced no net inflows or outflows last week.
In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) recorded net inflows of +0.2 mn USD, whilst the Bitwise Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) saw no net inflows or outflows.
Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum also saw net inflows of +0.1 mn USD last week.
Thematic & basket crypto ETPs posted net outflows of -6.2 mn USD on aggregate last week. The Bitwise MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) recorded no net inflows or outflows last week.
All in all, Ethereum was unmistakably the story of the week, with global Ethereum ETPs drawing +107.8 mn USD and US spot vehicles accounting for almost all of it at +101 mn USD. Bitcoin flows told a more divided tale: whilst global Bitcoin ETPs finished comfortably in positive territory, the two largest US products both shed assets, with IBIT and GBTC posting outflows of -95.5 mn USD and -83.7 mn USD respectively, suggesting much of the positive flows stemmed from ex-US regions. Once again, rotation into Ethereum is evident rather than a broad-based bid across the complex, especially as BTC flows and CARA declined. Ethereum continues its month-over-month outperformance.
On-Chain Data
Bitcoin continues to trade within a tight range of $67k and $63k below the short-term holder cost basis and above the 200-week moving average. The tight trading range and resilience of bitcoin is remarkable relative to the weakness in traditional risk assets such as semiconductors and US mega cap stocks.
Under the surface, we have seen an improvement in demand both in terms of ETP inflows as well as a rise in so-called “apparent demand” for bitcoin that has reaccelerated to a year-to-date high. This could explain why bitcoin has outperformed other risk assets more recently.
That said, trading volumes remain relatively low across different trading types (spot and derivatives), exchange flows are subdued, and volatility is historically low, increasing the risk for a more violent price move in the short term.
On a positive note, long-term holder supply continues to move higher to new all-time highs mostly on account of further maturation of investors into this cohort. In this context, long-term holder is defined as an investor that has held bitcoin for at least 155 days.
That means, there have never been more investors with high conviction which is encouraging to see in the context of bottom formation.
It will be interesting to watch whether institutional demand - in terms of bitcoin ETP flows as well as treasury company holdings - accelerates from these very low levels. Institutional demand growth has recently touched the lowest levels since late 2022 – a 4-year low. A reacceleration may lead to a reclaim of the important investor cost bases – short-term holder realized price and True Market Mean – which could create a self-reinforcing positive feedback loop and create the basis for a new bull market.
Nonetheless, downside risks remain in the short-term as intraday correlations between cryptoassets and traditional equities remain relatively high and further downside in the stock market may affect cryptoassets negatively as well until a new positive macro catalyst emerges.
To sum up, Bitcoin’s resilient price action and improving underlying demand suggest a potential bottom is forming, supported by rising long-term holder conviction. However, low liquidity and elevated correlation with traditional risk assets leave near-term downside risks, with a sustained institutional demand recovery likely needed to trigger a new bull market.
Futures, Options & Perpetuals
Over the past week, BTC perpetual futures open interest increased by approximately 8.2k BTC, while CME futures open interest also rose by around 2.7k BTC. That combination suggests positioning increased across both offshore perpetual markets and more institutionally oriented venues. Aggregate futures liquidations declined from the prior week. In total, liquidations reached roughly $1.40bn over the week, versus $1.90bn previously, with long liquidations of $0.80bn and short liquidations of $0.60bn.
The week’s positioning reflected a market that remained sensitive to geopolitical and energy-market risks but continued to hold up relatively well. An Iran-backed attack on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea pushed Brent above $100 a barrel for the first time since early June and left oil more than 30% higher over the month. Fears of disruption around the Bab al-Mandab, a key export route to Asia, reignited inflation concerns and triggered a global bond sell-off. The German 10-year yield rose to 3.21%, its highest level since 2011, while US yields moved back towards their conflict peak. Despite the risk-off backdrop, Bitcoin remained above its 200-week moving average and continued to outperform equities and gold. Liquidity is now forming around $60k on the downside and $67k on the upside.
Perpetual funding rates, measured on a 7-day moving average, ended the week at around +4.92% annualised, down from +6.65% last week. That suggests futures positioning became less aggressive even as perpetual open interest increased. In other words, traders added exposure, but the lower funding rate indicates that the increase was not accompanied by the same level of demand for leveraged long positions. This points to a market that remains willing to hold risk while staying cautious amid elevated geopolitical and macro uncertainty.
At the same time, the BTC 3-month annualised basis remained broadly flat compared with last week. That leaves the futures curve modestly positive but suggests demand for term futures did not change materially. Taken together with rising CME open interest, the stable basis indicates that institutional exposure increased without placing significant upward pressure on the futures premium. The combination of lower funding and a flat basis suggests positioning expanded, but leverage remained relatively controlled across both short- and medium-term futures markets.
In options markets, BTC Deribit options open interest increased modestly by roughly 34.7k BTC, bringing total open interest to around 444.5k BTC. The Deribit put-to-call open interest ratio decreased slightly to 0.44, while the equivalent metric across IBIT options ended higher at 0.69 by week’s end.
Taken together, these moves suggest options activity increased, while positioning differed between crypto-native and ETF-linked markets. The decline in the Deribit put-to-call ratio points to lower relative demand for downside protection among crypto-native participants. By contrast, the higher IBIT ratio suggests ETF-linked options investors became somewhat more cautious, potentially reflecting greater concern about the inflationary and interest-rate implications of higher oil prices.
The 25-delta skew moved slightly lower across all tenors. This suggests downside protection became somewhat cheaper relative to upside exposure, likely reflecting Bitcoin’s resilience despite the broader risk-off environment. It may also indicate increased demand for upside calls as investors positioned for a potential recovery. The move was modest, however, suggesting traders reduced defensive hedges rather than adopting a strongly bullish view.
Total GEX, on a 7-day moving average basis, decreased from around -$3.20bn to -$4.20bn. This suggests dealer positioning became more negative, increasing the market’s sensitivity to hedging flows if Bitcoin begins to move sharply. In practical terms, negative gamma can amplify price moves in either direction because dealers may be required to sell into declines or buy into rallies, particularly if spot breaks outside the current $60k to $67k liquidity range.
Dealer gamma exposure remains concentrated around important levels above the current spot range. The bulk of negative gamma continues to be clustered around the $70k strike, while positive gamma is concentrated around $72k. As these levels remain above spot, they are unlikely to have a major near-term impact unless Bitcoin stages a stronger recovery. However, a move towards $70k could produce more volatile price action as dealer hedging flows interact with the large negative gamma position, while positive gamma near $72k may begin to dampen volatility if that level is reached.
In short, Bitcoin continued to hold up relatively well despite renewed geopolitical tensions, higher oil prices and a global bond sell-off. Perpetual and CME open interest both increased, while liquidations declined to $1.40bn and remained weighted towards longs. Funding moved lower and the 3-month basis was broadly flat, suggesting exposure increased without a comparable rise in leverage or futures premiums. Options open interest increased, the Deribit put-to-call ratio declined and skew moved slightly lower, although the higher IBIT ratio pointed to greater caution among ETF-linked investors. With total dealer gamma becoming more negative and liquidity concentrated around $60k to $67k, prices remain sensitive to any break outside the current range.
Bottom Line
- Performance: Last week, cryptoassets outperformed traditional assets amid a renewed tightening in global financial conditions - Bitcoin advanced by +1.0% while the S&P 500 retreated by -0.6%, as rising energy prices and bond yields weighed on risk assets. Meanwhile, global crypto ETPs recorded their third consecutive week of positive net inflows, albeit still significantly below Q4 2025 bull market levels.
- Sentiment: Our in-house Cryptoasset Sentiment Index remained in positive territory last week and continues to signal a slightly bullish sentiment.
- Chart-of-the-Week: Bitcoin continues to demonstrate remarkable outperformance and resilience vis-à-vis US mega cap stocks such as the Magnificent 7 and SpaceX (SPCX) - a relative strength that is all the more notable in the context of tightening financial conditions and consistent with our view of Bitcoin as the "canary in the macro coal mine."
Appendix
Data subject to change
Combined positioning = futures and options in % of Ol
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