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This report is for professional investors and information purposes only. Persons without professional investment experience should not rely on it. Not investment advice or a personal recommendation. Cryptoassets are high risk and volatile and you may lose all capital invested. See full risk information at the end of this document.
- Performance: Cryptoassets posted a second consecutive week of gains, with Bitcoin holding $64,000 even as conditions re-tightened on the collapse of the Iran ceasefire and a roughly 5% rebound in oil. The AI capex cycle increasingly cuts both ways, carrying equity indices to record highs while feeding the inflation pressures the Fed's own staff now cite. Furthermore, weakness is emerging beyond the hyperscalers, with memory stocks falling into a bear market despite record earnings. With September hike odds back above 60%, yields higher across the curve and the dollar firming, attention now turns to Tuesday's June CPI print.
- Cross Asset Risk Appetite: increased considerably which likely helped reverse Bitcoin ETP net outflows and sustain altcoin net inflows. However, our in-house Sentiment Index fluctuated within the neutral zone reflecting a rotation back into Bitcoin as altcoin strength unwinds from previous weeks.
- Chart-of-the-Week: Bitcoin is oscillating around its 200-week moving average of $62,900, the upper bound of our terminal valuation range. Prior bear market lows have formed below this level, and the response of price action here may be telling for future market structure.
Chart of the Week
Performance
Cryptoassets posted a second consecutive week of gains, though the tone was consolidative rather than the sharp rebound of the prior week with Bitcoin holding the $63,000 to $64,000 area.
Despite the constructive week, the key concern we keep reiterating remains a disorderly unwind of the "AI trade", and this week offered evidence for both sides. SK Hynix completed the largest-ever US listing by a foreign company, raising roughly $26.5 billion, with demand at seven times the available shares and a 13% debut pop on Friday. Only SpaceX's record IPO last month raised more.
In contrast, Samsung reported record preliminary results on Tuesday, with operating profit near $58 billion on revenue up 129% year-on-year, yet its shares sold off anyway, dragging the memory complex into a bear market. Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix all fell more than 20% below their recent highs, and the selling spread to Intel, Marvell and the equipment names. At the week's worst, roughly $1.5 trillion of semiconductor market value had evaporated since June 25.
Notably, capital is rotating within the theme rather than leaving it, with the megacap hyperscalers gaining roughly 9% over the same stretch the chip index lost 12%, extending the pattern we described last week. Semiconductors are now widely called the most crowded trade in the world, and with margin debt at a record $1.42 trillion, the fuel for a disorderly move remains ample.
However, at the index level, none of this stress is visible. The Dow closed above 53,000 for the first time on Monday, and the S&P 500 finished the week within reach of its all-time high.
On the macro side, Wednesday's June FOMC minutes filled in the detail behind last month's hawkish shift. The committee remains split down the middle, with nine participants projecting at least one hike this year against eight for no change and one for a cut, and the minutes revealed that several policymakers saw a case for hiking at the June meeting itself. Fed staff also raised their 2026 and 2027 inflation forecasts, explicitly citing the Middle East war and the effects of the AI buildout. New York Fed President Williams went further this week, saying the inflation driver he is most focused on is demand fuelled by artificial intelligence. The loop is now explicit. AI capex feeds the inflation that keeps policy restrictive, while restrictive policy threatens the debt-financed capex cycle itself.
Attention now turns to Tuesday's June CPI print, which could easily mislead. Energy prices fell through June after the ceasefire, so the headline figure may come in soft or even negative on the month. That would say little about underlying inflation, with core expected to rise another 0.3%, leaving the annual core rate at 2.9%. With household inflation expectations at their highest since September 2023, a soft headline against rising expectations is not progress.
The bond market told the week's story most clearly. Yields rose across the curve, but each end carried a different message. The front end reflected renewed rate hike expectations, with the two-year yield rising as September hike odds climbed back through 60% on the oil re-escalation. The long end echoed our concern, with rising inflation expectations pushing the 10-year back towards 4.57% and the 30-year holding above the key 5% level. Credit followed, with investment grade underperforming Treasuries and high yield sentiment softening as energy-driven inflation concerns resurfaced. Taken together, financial conditions are tightening before a single hike has been delivered. Higher yields lift funding costs across the economy, including for the debt-financed AI buildout, and the bond market imposes this whether or not Warsh moves.
Precious metals struggled through a week that should have suited them. US strikes on Iran, tanker attacks and a 5% jump in crude would historically have sent gold higher. Instead it ended the week near $4,100, down roughly 1.5%, with silver down about 4% to around $60.
One potential reason for the precious metal complex's underperformance is that the monetary tailwind behind the bid is fading. Chinese M2 peaked in March and has been essentially flat since, and with Chinese money expansion potentially the single largest driver of the current metals bull market, a stalling impulse suggests the complex needs time to digest its parabolic run. Q2 was already gold's worst quarterly decline since the 2013 taper tantrum, and until the liquidity impulse returns, consolidation rather than crisis rallies is likely to remain the pattern.
On the energy front, renewed disruption arrived in force. Iran attacked a Qatari LNG tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the US to revoke Iran's oil-sale authorisation and bomb more than 80 targets. President Trump declared the ceasefire over and Iran threatened to close the strait. Brent jumped 5.2% on Wednesday and ended the week around $76, up roughly 5%. Talks continue via Qatari mediation, but Hormuz traffic remains well below normal and the IEA warns a prolonged escalation could undermine the rebuild of global inventories. The energy channel back into headline inflation, just as the Fed debates its first hike of the cycle, is one of the transmission mechanisms to watch.
In general, among the top 10 crypto assets ZCash, LEO and Ethereum were the relative outperformers. Ethereum also outperformed bitcoin last week.
Sentiment
Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” declined slightly within the neutral zone reflecting a general rotation from altcoins to Bitcoin in conjunction with higher cross asset risk appetite and lower altcoin outperformance.
At the moment, 7 out of 15 indicators remain above their short-term trend.
BTC Exchange Inflows and Crypto Fear and Greed both flipped from negative to positive denoting slightly better sentiment, but also a potential increase in willingness to sell amongst the recent Bitcoin strength.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index increased slightly to 28/100, the highest since the beginning of June, although it remains firmly in 'extreme fear' territory.
Performance dispersion widened slightly last week, led by Layer 2s, specifically Arbitrum, and DeFi tokens, led by Uniswap, following Robinhood's launch of its own L2 built on Arbitrum's infrastructure and integrating Uniswap's decentralised exchange, generating total fees of over 13,000 ETH, a level not seen since March 2023.
When dispersion increases, it may indicate that the market appears to be driven by a more diverse set of narratives which, in our analysis, has historically been associated with periods of increasing risk appetite in prior market cycles.
Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin decreased to 20% of our tracked altcoins in the index. Ethereum outperformed bitcoin last week.
Sentiment in traditional financial markets as measured by our in-house measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) increased from 0.65 to 0.74 over the past week, signalling a considerable rise in risk appetite. This has likely supported crypto risk exposure, especially via net ETF flows.
CME Bitcoin Commercials Net Positioning shows that the difference between long and short CME Bitcoin futures contracts. The reading has declined slightly to −16.8% of open interest, which sits slightly below record lows of around −18.9%, suggesting investors have unwound a little short leverage but remain largely hedged, or positioned outright for downside exposure.
All in all, cross-asset risk appetite likely helped reverse Bitcoin net outflows, which in turn sustained altcoin net inflows. This was not enough to shift the broader picture, however, as altcoin outperformance relative to Bitcoin declined, suggesting that narratives remained fickle and that strength had faded from prior weeks. Our Sentiment Index reflects this mixed picture, broadly fluctuating within the neutral zone.
Fund Flows
Global crypto ETPs experienced around +299.7 mn USD in net inflows last week, across all types of cryptoassets, after –719.5 mn USD in net outflows the previous week.
Global Bitcoin ETPs experienced net inflows of +201.1 mn USD last week, of which +184.3 mn USD in net inflows were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) in the US experienced net inflows of +5.2 mn USD last week.
In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) experienced net outflows equivalent to –1.1 mn USD, as the Bitwise Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) experienced net inflows of around +0.5 mn USD.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) posted net outflows of –108.1 mn USD whereas, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) experienced net inflows of around +291.9 mn USD last week.
Meanwhile, global Ethereum ETPs experienced +77.2 mn USD in net inflows last week, of which US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net inflows of around +87.1 mn USD on aggregate.
The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) posted no net inflows or outflows, whilst the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) saw net inflows of +53.7 mn USD.
The Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW) in the US experienced net outflows of –2.8 mn USD last week.
In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) recorded net inflows of +0.2 mn USD, whilst the Bitwise Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) saw net inflows of +0.8 mn USD.
Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum also saw net inflows of +21.4 mn USD last week.
Thematic & basket crypto ETPs posted net inflows of +0.1 mn USD on aggregate last week. The Bitwise MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) recorded no net inflows or outflows last week.
Overall, net inflows into global ETPs resumed, led largely by a reversal in global Bitcoin ETPs, specifically BlackRock's IBIT product. This renewed flow momentum helped underpin broader risk appetite across altcoin products, with Ethereum, Solana and Hyperliquid continuing to attract allocations.
On-Chain Data
Across the week, Bitcoin continued to climb, reaching a high of $64,700. From a technical perspective, however, this marks a potential lower high in the daily structure. If price begins to reverse from here, confirming the pattern, further downside remains on the cards. A close above the $66,000 to $67,000 region would instead form a new higher high and signal an improvement in market structure.
The altcoin sector remains tethered to Bitcoin, with 180-day correlation and beta across the complex sitting in the 67th and 78th percentiles respectively. Bitcoin remains the dominant driver for now with beta still elevated.
Notably, despite the positive week, volumes across major market sectors continue to wane, with every sector printing below the 10th percentile of the past year's activity. Rallies carry stronger underlying structure when supported by rising volumes, so the advance is one that currently lacks investor conviction beneath it.
| Market | 7D Sum (USD) | 1Y Pctile |
|---|---|---|
| Spot | $ 29,359,689,236 | 0.3% |
| Futures | $254,012,693,103 | 3.8% |
| Options | $ 21,635,442,205 | 7.1% |
| Onchain | $ 27,143,812,126 | 9.8% |
| ETF | $ 8,415,261,792 | 3% |
| DAT | $ 9,050,885,812 | 6.6% |
Nevertheless, with prices improving, investor loss-taking continues to contract, with realised losses falling to a 7-day average of $245mn, a $130mn improvement on last week. This suggests seller exhaustion is continuing to develop across the trading range, with the pool of marginal sellers willing to capitulate on each move lower gradually diminishing.
Interestingly, the market has remained in a loss-dominated regime since the November 2025 crash. Each attempt to flip into profit-dominance has been met with renewed selling, suggesting sentiment remains split between capitulation and exiting at breakeven. Historically, a sustained switch into a profit-dominated regime has aligned with a broader turn to risk-on, with liquidity entering the market and supporting prices.
On the downside, the Realised Price at $53,000, representing the market's average cost basis, and the 200-week moving average at $62,900 have historically bracketed the regions where terminal cycle lows form during deep bear markets. Our base case remains that terminal valuation forms within this range.
At present, Bitcoin is oscillating around its 200-week moving average, with the response of price action here likely telling for future market structure.
To the upside, the Short-Term Holder cost basis at $70,000, representing the average acquisition price of newer investors, and the True Market Mean at $76,600, representing the average acquisition price of active investors, mark important local and macro equilibrium levels. A decisive reclaim of these thresholds has historically been associated with renewed momentum and a return to risk-on conditions.
Finally, our Bitcoin valuation composite resides in the 21st percentile, placing valuations in discounted territory. Historically, persistent readings above the 50th percentile have been associated with a durable return to risk-on conditions. Read more about our valuation composite methodology here.
Futures, Options & Perpetuals
Over the past week, BTC perpetual futures open interest decreased by approximately -10.5k BTC, while CME futures open interest increased modestly by around +1.7k BTC versus the prior week. That combination suggests positioning was reduced across offshore perpetual markets, while more institutionally oriented venues saw a small increase in exposure. Aggregate futures liquidations declined from the prior week. In total, liquidations reached roughly $1.70bn over the week, versus $2.10bn previously, with long liquidations of $0.90bn and short liquidations of $0.80bn.
The week’s positioning reflected a market that remained sensitive to geopolitical risk but held up better than feared. The United States and Iran exchanged attacks, while Trump declared that the MoU with Iran was “over”. Investors remained on edge as they watched for any signs of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, where a further deterioration could quickly tighten energy markets and weigh on broader risk sentiment. Despite this, Bitcoin held up relatively well. Liquidity is now forming around $63k on the downside and $65k on the upside, leaving the market in a narrow range despite the fragile macro backdrop.
Perpetual funding rates, measured on a 7-day moving average, ended the week higher at around +8.00% annualised, up from +6.25% last week. That suggests futures positioning became more constructive, even as perpetual open interest declined. In other words, some leverage was reduced, but the remaining positioning leaned more positive as spot held firm through the geopolitical headlines.
At the same time, the BTC 3-month annualised basis ticked up to around +3.5%, from +3.3% last week. That leaves the futures curve slightly more positive, suggesting term futures demand improved modestly. The move reinforces the view that investors remained willing to hold exposure despite the geopolitical uncertainty, although the basis still remains moderate rather than stretched.
In options markets, BTC Deribit options open interest was broadly flat versus last week, leaving total open interest at around 360.7k BTC. The Deribit put-to-call open interest ratio decreased slightly to 0.55, while the equivalent metric across IBIT options also moved lower to 0.73 by week’s end.
Taken together, these moves suggest options exposure remained stable, while positioning became slightly less defensive across both crypto-native and ETF-linked markets. The small decline in the Deribit put-to-call ratio points to reduced relative downside hedging among crypto-native participants, while the lower IBIT ratio suggests ETF-linked options investors also became less cautious as Bitcoin held its range.
The 25-delta skew moved lower at the 1-week tenor, while the rest of the curve was broadly flat. That suggests very short-term downside protection became less expensive as Bitcoin absorbed the geopolitical headlines without breaking lower. The flatness in longer tenors suggests investors did not materially change their medium-term hedging demand, likely because the broader macro and geopolitical backdrop remains uncertain.
Total GEX, on a 7-day moving average basis, decreased from around -$812mn to -$1.30bn. This suggests dealer positioning became more negative again, increasing the market’s sensitivity to hedging flows around nearby strike levels. In practical terms, spot may become more mechanically reactive if price moves sharply through the current liquidity range.
Dealer gamma exposure also remains concentrated around important nearby levels, with the bulk of negative gamma clustered around the $63k to $64k strikes. That leaves the market most sensitive to moves around the current spot range. By contrast, positive gamma is concentrated around the $67k to $68k area, suggesting stabilising dealer flows sit meaningfully above spot and are unlikely to provide near-term support unless BTC stages a stronger recovery.
In short, Bitcoin held up relatively well despite renewed US and Iran tensions and continued concern around the Strait of Hormuz. Liquidations fell to $1.70bn and were broadly balanced between longs and shorts, while perpetual open interest declined and CME open interest increased modestly. Funding rose, basis strengthened slightly, options exposure was flat, and short-dated skew moved lower as immediate downside hedging demand eased. With dealer gamma more negative and liquidity concentrated around $63k to $65k, prices remain highly sensitive around the current range.
Bottom Line
- Performance: Cryptoassets posted a second consecutive week of gains, with Bitcoin holding $64,000 even as conditions re-tightened on the collapse of the Iran ceasefire and a roughly 5% rebound in oil. The AI capex cycle increasingly cuts both ways, carrying equity indices to record highs while feeding the inflation pressures the Fed's own staff now cite. Furthermore, weakness is emerging beyond the hyperscalers, with memory stocks falling into a bear market despite record earnings. With September hike odds back above 60%, yields higher across the curve and the dollar firming, attention now turns to Tuesday's June CPI print.
- Cross Asset Risk Appetite: increased considerably which likely helped reverse Bitcoin ETP net outflows and sustain altcoin net inflows. However, our in-house Sentiment Index fluctuated within the neutral zone reflecting a rotation back into Bitcoin as altcoin strength unwinds from previous weeks.
- Chart-of-the-Week: Bitcoin is oscillating around its 200-week moving average of $62,900, the upper bound of our terminal valuation range. Prior bear market lows have formed below this level, and the response of price action here may be telling for future market structure.
Appendix
Data subject to change
Combined positioning = futures and options in % of Ol
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