Bitcoin Rises as Trust in Dollar-Denominated Assets Falls

Chart of the Week

Bitcoin has recently managed to outperform US equities

Performance

Last week, Bitcoin remained quite consolidated between the $83K and $84K, trading with low volatility under the backdrop of ongoing macro uncertainty. As we mentioned in our last week's publication, it is very likely that those treating BTC as a short-term risk asset may be handing it off to those accumulating it as a long-term hedge against macro-economic uncertainty and as a store of value.

Not only does on-chain data support this- over 63.5% of Bitcoin supply has remained unmoved for at least a year, while long-term holder supply has climbed to a year-to-date high of 69%-but we're also seeing Bitcoin appreciate alongside gold, reinforcing its identity as a store of value.

Going into yesterday, BTC broke out above $88K. The move coincided with a fresh leg lower in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which fell below 98.5 for the first time since 2022 amid growing speculation that President Trump may seek to oust Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett confirmed that Trump's team is ‘actively exploring' the possibility of removing Powell. The pressure campaign is being framed around Powell's resistance to rate cuts-criticized by the administration as obstructive to their broader currency realignment agenda. Trump has repeatedly blamed a “strong dollar” for the hollowing out of American manufacturing and sees dollar weakness as essential to restoring U.S. competitiveness.

To understand the administration's policy trajectory, it's helpful to consider the “Mar-a-Lago Accord” framework articulated by Stephen Miran, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers. The framework proposes tying U.S. military protection and trade access to financial concessions from allies. Foreign nations inside America's defence umbrella would be expected to purchase long-duration U.S. Treasuries (possibly century bonds) and accept lower yields, in exchange for continued security guarantees. The reallocation of interest rate risk-from U.S. taxpayers to foreign reserve holders-would be central to achieving a sustained duation of the dollar​

But in practice, this framework also introduces significant fragility. If allies resist, or markets question the credibility of such a reconfiguration, volatility will surge. And that's already happening. With Powell's independence under public attack, DXY tumbling, and Treasuries facing unanchored demand, monetary credibility is declining for the US.

And we are starting to see the cracks appear. Recent data highlights the tension. While U.S. import prices fell slightly in March due to lower fuel costs, core import prices rose-driven by industrial materials. March retail sales surged 1.4% in March, with auto sales up 5.3%, likely due to consumers front-running expected tariffs. But business sentiment is clearly deteriorating. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index plunged to -26.4, its worst reading in two years.

With Fed policy under political siege, the dollar declining, and U.S. equities starting to decouple from hard assets, the macro landscape is beginning to reward sovereign-free stores of value (Chart-of-the-week). This month's index performance shows Bitcoin up nearly 5% MTD compared to 7-9% drop for the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500-illustrating its resilience and early-stage decoupling. If the ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord' framework leads to prolonged dollar weakness and U.S. asset repricing, Bitcoin's positioning could strengthen further as a true macro hedge.

Bitcoin has recently managed to outperform US equities

It's against this backdrop that Bitcoin's move should be understood.

The rally was further supported by fresh headlines: Japanese firm Metaplanet bought another 330 BTC at $85,605 per coin, bringing total holdings to nearly $420M. Strategy further acquiring 6,556 BTC for ~$555.8 million at ~$84,785 per Bitcoin and Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster also confirmed that spot Bitcoin trading is expected to launch for Schwab clients by April 2026, citing a 400% increase in crypto-related web traffic to Schwab's crypto website as evidence of investor interest in digital assets. .

Yet even as Bitcoin rallies, one segment of the industry is getting squeezed: U.S.-based Bitcoin miners.

With an estimated 40% of global hashrate operated by American mining firms, the industry is facing levies of 24–46% on imported mining equipment from Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia. These costs come at a time when hashprice, a key profitability metric for miners, is at all-time lows. With spot ETFs and corporate treasuries like Strategy and Metaplanet absorbing investor demand, Bitcoin miners now face intense competition on the capital front. These firms can accumulate BTC using low-cost equity issuance or convertible debt, offering investors immediate exposure to price appreciation without the operational risks of mining. This crowds out miners, who must finance heavy upfront capital expenditures, navigate uncertain regulatory terrain, and wait months or even years for their investment to pay off.

However, some mining firms are adapting. Bitfufu is looking into redirecting machines to Ethiopia. Bitdeer is prioritizing Norway and Bhutan. Others, like Riot and CleanSpark, absorbed the initial tariff impact by accelerating shipments pre-deadline. However, one thing is clear, miners are bracing for more pain.

In the alt-coin space, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin proposed replacing the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) with a RISC-V–based architecture to streamline zero-knowledge proof generation and boost L1 scalability. The shift could reduce zk-proving costs by 50–100x while preserving backward compatibility.

At the same time, Ethereum's Pectra upgrade-featuring blob data expansion (EIP-7691), account abstraction (EIP-7702), and higher staking caps (EIP-7251)-arrives as base-layer usage hits record lows. As Ethereum leans into its L2-centric roadmap, it's evolving into a B2B infrastructure model where rollups are the primary customers. To make this sustainable, Ethereum must dominate the data availability market. Blob fees could anchor Ethereum's long-term value, but the economic shift will take time.

Furthermore, we see continued resilience and innovation in the space despite border economic headwinds. DeFi now accounts for 60% of crypto lending, helping fill the gap left by the 2022 crypto banking crisis. Bleap has teamed up with Mastercard to advance stablecoin payments within traditional networks. Semler Scientific has filed a $500M offering to expand its Bitcoin holdings. Meanwhile, Securitize has acquired MG Stover's fund administration unit, bringing $38B in AUM across 715 funds, including BlackRock's $2.45B tokenized Treasury vehicle (BUIDL).

From tokenization and stablecoins to institutional products and on-chain credit, the industry continues to build. But as The Economist rightly notes: “A currency is only as good as the government that backs it.” With Trump openly challenging the Fed's independence and markets questioning U.S. fiscal stability, the optics and appetite for Bitcoin only grows more bullish.

Cross Asset Performance (Week-to-Date)

Top 10 Cryptoasset Performance (Week-to-Date)

In general, among the top 10 crypto assets Solana, Chainlink and Bitcoin were the relative outperformers.

Overall, altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin decreased from last week, with 20% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis. Furthermore, Ethereum underperformed Bitcoin last week.

Sentiment

Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has flipped to signal a slightly bullish sentiment.

At the moment, 8 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.

The Bitcoin Exchange inflows and BTC Funding Rate metrics have been observed to improve from last week and we are seeing a further improvement in our Cryptoasset Sentiment Index which went from -0.23 on April 14th to 0.21 at time of writing.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently signals a “Fear” level of sentiment as of this morning, improving slightly from last week.

Performance dispersion among cryptoassets remains at very low levels, signalling that altcoins have continued to be highly correlated with the performance of Bitcoin lately.

Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has sustained from last week, with around 20% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis. Ethereum also managed to underperform Bitcoin last week.

In general, increasing (decreasing) altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of increasing (decreasing) risk appetite within cryptoasset markets and the latest altcoin underperformance signals a bearish risk appetite at the moment.

Sentiment in traditional financial markets as measured by our in-house measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) has improved slightly while remaining at low levels, moving from -0.59 to -0.43.

Fund Flows

Weekly fund flows into global crypto ETPs have decelerated significantly last week,

Global crypto ETPs saw around -30.2 mn USD in weekly net outflows across all types of cryptoassets, after -835.5 mn USD in net outflows the previous week.

Global Bitcoin ETPs have experienced net outflows totalling -60.6 mn USD last week, of which +15.8 mn USD in net inflows were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

The Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) in the US experienced net inflows, totalling +23.8 mn USD last week.

In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) also experienced minor net outflows equivalent to -0.5 mn USD, while the Bitwise Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) had sticky AuM (+/- 0 mn USD).

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) also followed suit and had sticky AuM (+/- 0 mn USD). The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) also experienced net inflows of around +186.5 mn USD last week.

Meanwhile, flows into global Ethereum ETPs remained negative last week, with around -20.4 mn USD in net outflows last week

US Ethereum spot ETFs, also recorded net outflows of around -32.2 mn USD on aggregate. The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) followed suit and experienced net outflows of around -18.8 mn USD last week.

The Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW) in the US experienced no net flows last week.

In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) saw minor net inflows of +0.6 mn USD while the Bitwise Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) saw no net flows last week.

Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum have continued its positive trend last week, with around +42.7 mn USD in global net inflows.

Furthermore, thematic & basket crypto ETPs experienced net inflows of around +8.1 mn USD on aggregate last week. The Bitwise MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) had sticky AuM (+/- 0 mn USD).

Global crypto hedge funds have mentained their market exposure to Bitcoin. The 20-days rolling beta of global crypto hedge funds' performance to Bitcoin increased to around 0.80 per yesterday's close.

On-Chain Data

Broadly speaking, Bitcoin's on-chain activity remained subdued throughout last week and remains weak.

Selling pressure remains, as Bitcoin spot exchanges recorded approximately -$0.19 bn in net selling volumes.

In terms of Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), which measures the difference between buying and selling volume, the metric has been negative most of last week, indicating dominance of sell-side pressure.

It is worth noting that supply dynamics on exchanges tend to provide a slightly clearer explanation of price action.

In terms of supply dynamics, we are observing an opposite pattern. Whales have removed bitcoins from exchanges on a net basis, indicating an increase in whale buying pressure. More specifically, BTC whales removed a further -260,455 BTC on exchanges last week. Network entities that possess at least 1,000 Bitcoin are referred to as whales.

Based on recent data from Glassnode, exchange-held Bitcoin (BTC) reserves have declined to 2.60 million coins, representing approximately 13% of the total circulating supply. This metric has reached its lowest level since November 2018, marking a significant multi-year low in exchange balances.

We also notice that over 63.4% of Bitcoin supply remains unmoved for at least a year in tandem to long-term holder supply climbing to a year-to-date high of 69% -underscoring strong conviction among long-term holders.

That being said, a measure of “apparent demand” for Bitcoin over the past 30 days had been in persistent decline since February 2025, reflecting a slowdown in demand. However, the metric has recently begun to recover, improving toward levels last observed prior to March 12th.

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) represents the difference between Relative Unrealized Profit and Relative Unrealized Loss. It can be calculated by subtracting realized capitalization from market capitalization and dividing by market capitalization. Currently, the ratio between realized profits and losses stands at 0.49, indicating that the market remains below the breakeven threshold of 1.

Futures, Options & Perpetuals

Last week, BTC futures open interest increased by around +15.8k BTC while perpetual open interest increased by around +10.7k BTC.

BTC perpetual funding rates maintained positive values following Thursday of last week, indicating modest bullish sentiment among traders in the perpetual futures market.

In general, when the funding rate is positive (negative), long (short) positions periodically pay short (long) positions, which is indicative of bullish (bearish) sentiment.

The BTC 3-months annualised basis increased from around 5.2% p.a last week to around 5.7% p.a. averaged across various futures exchanges. BTC option open interest increased by around +11.9k BTC. The put-call open interest ratio had experienced an increase from 0.57 to 0.59.

The 1-month 25-delta skew for BTC continued to drop last week, indicating a modest decrease in demand for put options and a slightly bullish market sentiment.

BTC option implied volatilities fluctuated last week, with 1-month realized volatility ending the week by decreasing by around 0.9%.

At the time of writing, implied volatilities of 1-month ATM Bitcoin options are currently at around 49.37% p.a.

Bottom Line

Appendix

Bitcoin Price vs Cryptoasset Sentiment Index

Cryptoasset Sentiment Index

Cryptoasset Sentiment Index

TradFi Sentiment Indicators

Crypto Sentiment Indicators

Crypto Options' Sentiment Indicators

Crypto Futures & Perpetuals' Sentiment Indicators

Crypto On-Chain Indicators

Bitcoin vs Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Bitcoin vs Global Crypto ETP Fund Flows

Global Crypto ETP Fund Flows

US Spot Bitcoin ETF Fund Flows

US Spot Bitcoin ETFs: Flows since launch

US Spot Bitcoin ETFs: 5-days flow

US Bitcoin ETFs: Net Fund Flows since 11th Jan mn USD

US Spot Ethereum ETF Fund Flows

US Spot Ethereum ETFs: Flows since launch

US Spot Ethereum ETFs: 5-days flow

US Ethereum ETFs: Net Fund Flows since 23rd July

Bitcoin vs Crypto Hedge Fund Beta

Altseason Index

Bitcoin vs Crypto Dispersion Index

Bitcoin Price vs Futures Basis Rate

Ethereum Price vs Futures Basis Rate

BTC Net Exchange Volume by Size