Is Bitcoin’s Next Rally Here? Sentiment Hits 2025 High amid $14.3 bn Inflows

André Dragosch, PhD Director, Head of Research — Europe

Overview

Chart of the Week
Performance
Sentiment
Fund Flows
On-Chain
Futures, Options & Perpetuals
Bottom Line
Appendix

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Last week, bitcoin and cryptoassets outperformed traditional assets on account of a decline in macro uncertainty and a decisive return in global risk appetite.
Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has increased to highest level since May 2025 and now clearly signals a bullish sentiment again.
Chart of the Week: Cumulative net inflows into global bitcoin ETPs have reached a new year-to-date high of +$14.3 bn signalling potential upside opportunity for the price of bitcoin.

Chart of the Week

Performance

Last week, bitcoin and cryptoassets outperformed traditional assets on account of a decline in macro uncertainty and a decisive return in global risk appetite.

Although a lot of attention has been paid to the significant increase in corporate bitcoin holdings, global bitcoin ETPs have also absorbed a high percentage of supply more recently.

Cumulative net inflows into global bitcoin ETPs have reached a new year-to-date high of +$14.3 bn signalling potential upside opportunity for the price of bitcoin (Chart-of-the-Week).

Last week alone saw 5 consecutive streaks of net inflows into global bitcoin ETPs totalling +$2.2 bn which is equivalent to approximately 20,763 BTC.

Net inflows into US spot bitcoin ETFs have even been more consistent with 14 trading days of consecutive net inflows already.

If US spot bitcoin ETFs have another 3 trading days of net inflows this week it will be the longest consecutive streak of positive net inflows since trading launch in January 2024!

The previous record was between 26/01/24 and 16/02/24 with 16 trading days of consecutive net inflows.

These strong consistent inflows into global bitcoin ETPs imply that global risk appetite is returning.

This can also be seen in our Cryptoasset Sentiment Index which has increased to the highest level since May 2025 and supports the view of returning risk appetite across a variety of different metrics.

One of the key reasons for this appears to be related to the recent decline in macro uncertainty: July could see the announcement of major trade deals between the US and other major trading partners like Canada. There has also been a more conciliatory tone between the US and Iran as Trump has signalled to be ready to lift sanctions if Iran remains peaceful.

Furthermore, recent commentary by different Fed officials including Powell himself indicate that a resumption of rate cuts in July are becoming increasingly likely. Powell himself has made future rate cuts dependent on future tariff developments and trade deals that would to take the uncertainty with respect to (import) inflation off the table.

The trifecta of declining geopolitical risks, trade policy uncertainty and potential monetary policy stimulus should continue to lift market sentiment and provide a significant tailwind for bitcoin and other cryptoassets.

In general, among the top 10 crypto assets Solana, Ethereum, and Dogecoin were the relative outperformers.

Overall altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis bitcoin increased significantly last week,with 70% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform bitcoin on a weekly basis – the highest level since May 2025. Ethereum also outperformed bitcoin significantly last week.

Sentiment

Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has increased to highest level since May 2025 and now clearly signals a bullish sentiment again.

At the moment, 11 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.

BTC Exchange Inflows and the Altseason Index showed positive movement.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently signals a “Greed” level of sentiment as of this morning, increasing from last week.

Performance dispersion among cryptoassets remained stable last week, signalling that altcoins have continued to be highly correlated with the performance of bitcoin.

Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has increased from last week, with around 70% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis. Furthermore, Ethereum managed to outperform Bitcoin last week.

In general, increasing (decreasing) altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of increasing (decreasing) risk appetite within cryptoasset markets and the latest altcoin outperformance signals a bullish risk appetite at the moment.

Sentiment in traditional financial markets as measured by our in-house measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) has also increased, moving from 0.31 to 0.49.

Fund Flows

Weekly fund flows into global crypto ETPs continued to be high signalling a return in global risk appetite and strong demand for cryptoassets.

Global crypto ETPs saw around +2,646.6 mn USD in weekly net inflows across all types of cryptoassets, after +526.0 mn USD in net inflows the previous week.

Global Bitcoin ETPs have experienced net inflows totalling +2,217.0 mn USD last week, of which +2,216.1 mn USD in net inflows were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

The Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) in the US experienced net inflows, totalling +74.0 mn USD last week.

In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) experienced minor net outflows equivalent to -7.0 mn USD, while the Bitwise Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) experienced minor net inflows of +0.2 mn USD.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has posted net outflows of -5.7 mn USD. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), experienced strong net inflows of around +1,310.9 mn USD last week.

Meanwhile, flows into global Ethereum ETPs also continued its positive trend last week, with around +418.3 mn USD in net inflows last week.

US Ethereum spot ETFs, also recorded net inflows of around +283.4 mn USD on aggregate. The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), has posted net outflows of -18.4 mn USD.

The Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW) in the US has posted also net inflows of +7.8 mn USD.

In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) saw minor net outflows of -0.3 mn USD while the Bitwise Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) saw minor net inflows of +0.1 mn USD.

Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum saw +25.5 mn USD in global net inflows.

However, thematic & basket crypto ETPs continued to experience net outflows of around -14.3 mn USD on aggregate last week. The Bitwise MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) saw minor net inflows of +0.2 mn USD.

Global crypto hedge funds have significantly reduced their exposure to Bitcoin. The 20-days rolling beta of global crypto hedge funds’ performance to Bitcoin declined to around 0.62 per yesterday’s close, down from 0.77 from the week before.

On-Chain Data

Last week, Bitcoin's on-chain activity remained relatively weak but improved at the margin.

Bitcoin spot exchanges continued to net selling pressure but at a decreasing rate to approximately -$0.5 bn compared to -$2.2 bn a week ago.

This decline in selling pressure has helped bitcoin recover from 101k USD to around 108k USD again.

Meanwhile, bitcoin whales have continued to send bitcoins off exchanges on a net basis, indicating an increase in whale buying interest. More specifically, BTC whales removed -8,740 BTC from exchanges last week. Network entities that possess at least 1,000 Bitcoin are referred to as whales.

Furthermore, based on recent data from Glassnode, the overall downward trend in exchange-held Bitcoin reserves remains intact. The current level stands at 2.898 million BTC, representing approximately 14.57% of the total circulating supply.

It’s worth noting that the 30-day measure of “apparent demand” for Bitcoin remains positive, though momentum has started to decline in recent days. We are also observing a decline in accumulation activity across different wallet cohorts more recently.

All of these factors imply that bitcoin might continue to consolidate in the short term, although the overall trend remains bullish.

Futures, Options & Perpetuals

Last week, BTC futures open interest decreased last week by -20k BTC across all exchanges, and decreased by -2k BTC on CME. Meanwhile, perpetual open interest increased by around +9k BTC.

Interestingly, BTC perpetual funding rates were negative most of the time last week indicating a bearish sentiment among traders in the perpetual futures market and possibly a short bias.

In general, when the funding rate is positive (negative), long (short) positions periodically pay short (long) positions, which is indicative of bullish (bearish) sentiment.

The BTC 3-months annualised basis remained relatively stable at around 4.8% p.a. averaged across various futures exchanges last week.

BTC option open interest decreased significantly by around -123k BTC due to the triple-witching expiry of weekly, monthly, and quarterly expiries at the end of June.

The put-call open interest ratio declined to 0.59 indicating that these expiries led to a decline in bearish bets/downside hedges.

The 1-month 25-delta skew for BTC also declined throughout the week from +4.6% to +1.2%. The presence of a positive skew indicates some preference for downside protection, with bearish positioning slightly less pronounced than in the week prior.

BTC option implied volatilities trended down last week, while the 1-month realized volatility remained stable at around 30.3% p.a.

At the time of writing, implied volatilities of 1-month ATM Bitcoin options are currently at around 38% p.a.

Bottom Line

Last week, bitcoin and cryptoassets outperformed traditional assets on account of a decline in macro uncertainty and a decisive return in global risk appetite.
Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has increased to highest level since May 2025 and now clearly signals a bullish sentiment again.
Chart of the Week: Cumulative net inflows into global bitcoin ETPs have reached a new year-to-date high of +$14.3 bn signalling potential upside opportunity for the price of bitcoin.

Appendix

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