Bitcoin Nears Record Highs, Ethereum Soars - $12T Retirement Funds Could Supercharge ETFs | Bitwise

André Dragosch, PhD Director, Head of Research — Europe

Max Shannon Senior Research Associate

Overview

Chart of the Week
Performance
Sentiment
Fund Flows
On-Chain
Futures, Options & Perpetuals
Bottom Line
Appendix

Last week, cryptoassets significantly outperformed traditional assets: Ethereum surpassed $4,300 - its highest point since December 2021 - while Bitcoin reached $121,000, putting it close to its previous record high.
Our in-house Cryptoasset Sentiment Index has recovered strongly from its recent lows and is now signalling a bullish sentiment again.
Chart of the Week: Based on the latest available numbers, approximately $12.2 trillion are managed in 401(k) and other defined-contribution retirement plans which is even higher than the total amount of assets managed in US ETFs (~$10.6 trillion). Even small (re-)allocations of capital could have a very significant impact on the Bitcoin spot ETF market where approximately $150.6 billion are currently being managed.

Chart of the Week

Performance

Ether climbed as much as 2.9% on Monday morning in Asia, surpassing $4,300 - its highest point since December 2021 - while Bitcoin reached $121,000, putting it close to its previous record high.

Key catalysts for both major cryptoassets remain the latest Executive Order by Trump to allow access to digital assets in 401(k) pension plans and other defined-contribution retirement plans. This increased access could potentially attract billions of additional capital to cryptoassets due to the very significant size of defined-contribution retirement plans in the US.

Based on the latest available numbers, approximately $12.2 trillion are managed in 401(k) and other defined-contribution retirement plans which is even higher than the total amount of assets managed in US ETFs (~$10.6 trillion). Even small (re-)allocations of capital could have a very significant impact on the Bitcoin spot ETF market where approximately $150.6 billion are currently being managed (Chart-of-the-Week).

More specifically, based on the historical performance sensitivity of bitcoin to changes in weekly global ETP flows demonstrated here, we estimate that for any 1%-point allocation of these defined-contribution retirement plans (currently around $122 billion) bitcoin's price could already rise by approximately 63%(!).

In fact, 401(k) predominantly tend to invest via ETFs as well which is why it is reasonable to assume that US spot Bitcoin (and Ethereum) ETFs are likely to attract the bulk of these new capital flows.

It is also quite likely that 401(k) other defined-contribution retirement plans could possibly reallocate between 1% - 5% of capital to cryptoasset ETFs based on the findings of the latest Bitwise/VettaFi survey of financial advisors. That being said, only 1/5 ^th of financial advisors (22%) have indicated that they are actually investing into cryptoassets based on this survey. However, ongoing adoption of bitcoin and other cryptoassets will most certainly increase this number over the medium to long term.

Besides, Ether's outperformance is being boosted as interest from institutional investors and corporate treasury buyers grows. Over $6.7 billion has already flowed into the nine US-listed Ether exchange-traded funds this year, while digital asset treasury firms such as Tom Lee's BitMine (BMNR) have accumulated about $13 billion worth of Ether according to data provided by strategicethreserve.xyz. Last week, global Ethereum ETPs have also attracted slightly more capital (+$256 mn) than global Bitcoin ETPs (+$227 mn).

All in all, the significant outperformance of Ether vis-à-vis bitcoin and altcoins more broadly tends to be signal for increasing risk appetite which bodes well for the wider cryptoasset market.

In general, among the top 10 crypto assets Chainlink, Dogecoin, and Ethereum were the relative outperformers.

Overall altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis bitcoin accelerated significantly last week, with 95% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform bitcoin on a weekly basis. Ethereum also outperformed bitcoin significantly last week.

Sentiment

Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has reversed its lows since April 2025 to 0.57.

At the moment, 2 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.

BTC Exchange Inflows and BTC 1month Implied Vol were two indicators that posted positive developments week on week.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently signals "Neutral" levels at 59/100 although up 11 points from last week.

Performance dispersion among cryptoassets while stable through last week but ended slightly higher at 0.54, signalling that altcoins have continued to be highly correlated with the performance of bitcoin.

Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has decreased from last week, with around 95% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis. Ethereum also managed to outperform Bitcoin last week.

In general, increasing (decreasing) altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of increasing (decreasing) risk appetite within cryptoasset markets and the latest altcoin outperformance signals a increasing risk appetite at the moment.

Sentiment in traditional financial markets as measured by our in-house measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) has also increased moving from 0.33 to 0.5.

Fund Flows

Weekly fund flows into global crypto ETPs have accelerated from last week.

Global crypto ETPs saw around + 490.9 mn USD in weekly net inflows across all types of cryptoassets, after +844.9 mn USD in net inflows the previous week.

Global Bitcoin ETPs have experienced net inflows totalling +226.9 mn USD last week, of which -246.8 mn USD in net inflows were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

The Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) in the US experienced net inflows, totalling +62.3 mn USD last week.

In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) experienced minor net outflows equivalent to -1.9 mn USD, while the Bitwise Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) experienced minor net inflows of +0.4 mn USD.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has posted net inflows of +3.4 mn USD. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), experienced net inflows of around +188.9 mn USD last week.

Meanwhile, flows into global Ethereum ETPs, however, accelerated last week, with around +256.4 mn USD in net inflows.

US spot Ethereum ETFs, also recorded net inflows of around +326.8 mn USD on aggregate. The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), has posted net inflows of +29.9 mn USD.

The Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW) in the US has posted also net inflows of +32.6 mn USD.

In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) saw net outflows of -20.6 mn USD while the Bitwise Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) saw significant net outflows of -12 mn USD.

Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum, however, experienced net inflows of +19.2 mn USD last week.

Yet, thematic & basket crypto ETPs continued to be out of favour with net outflows of around -11.6 mn USD on aggregate last week. The Bitwise MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) has posted net inflows of around +0.5 mn USD.

Global crypto hedge funds exposure to Bitcoin has increased last week. The 20-days rolling beta of global crypto hedge funds' performance to Bitcoin increased to around 0.43 per yesterday's close, up from 0.38 from the week before.

On-Chain Data

Last week, Bitcoin's on-chain activity reflected the outperformance of the crypto markets against traditional assets due to increased risk tolerance.

Net buying volumes on bitcoin spot exchanges over the past 7 days continued to be negative however decelerated with net selling volumes decreasing to approximately -$2.14 bn, down from -$3 bn, on bitcoin spot exchanges.

Furthermore, the 30-day "apparent demand" metric for Bitcoin continues to register positive readings, though it has decelerated markedly over the past week, suggesting a potential cooling in short-term holder accumulation activity.

Furthermore, Bitcoin whale activity has shifted notably, with large holders now demonstrating net inflows to exchanges, indicating distribution. Specifically, whale addresses deposited a net 26762 BTC to exchanges over the past week, signalling decreased accumulation appetite among major holders.

Our Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) measure increased from 0.31 to 0.5, underscoring the dramatic shift in sentiment that caused cryptoassets to outperform traditional assets. This risk-on environment also saw the recent outperformance of Ethereum and other altcoins.

Nonetheless, based on recent data from Glassnode, the overall downward trend in exchange-held Bitcoin reserves remains intact. The current level stands at 2.906 mn BTC, representing approximately 14.6% of the total circulating supply, although slightly up from last week.

Futures, Options & Perpetuals

Last week, BTC futures open interest decreased last week by -4.1k BTC across all exchanges and decreased by +0.66k BTC on CME. Meanwhile, perpetual open interest decreased by around +2.8k BTC.

BTC perpetual funding rates remained positive and trended upward last week indicating a bullish sentiment among traders in the perpetual futures market with a long bias.

In general, when the funding rate is positive (negative), long (short) positions periodically pay short (long) positions, which is indicative of bullish (bearish) sentiment.

The BTC 3-months annualised basis increased last week to around 8.4% p.a., averaged across various futures exchanges.

BTC option open interest increased by around +1.05k BTC while the put-call open interest ratio decreased sharply to 0.35.

Meanwhile, the 1-month P-C 25-delta skew for BTC decreased throughout the week from +5.9% to +3.3% signalling increased appetite for call options. The presence of a positive skew indicates some preference for downside protection.

BTC option implied volatilities decreased slightly compared to last week, while the 1-month realized volatility also ticked higher at around 30.02% p.a.

At the time of writing, implied volatilities of 1-month ATM Bitcoin options are currently at around 32.76% p.a. on Deribit.

Bottom Line

Last week, cryptoassets significantly outperformed traditional assets: Ethereum surpassed $4,300 - its highest point since December 2021 - while Bitcoin reached $121,000, putting it close to its previous record high.
Our in-house Cryptoasset Sentiment Index has recovered strongly from its recent lows and is now signalling a bullish sentiment again.
Chart of the Week: Based on the latest available numbers, approximately $12.2 trillion are managed in 401(k) and other defined-contribution retirement plans which is even higher than the total amount of assets managed in US ETFs (~$10.6 trillion). Even small (re-)allocations of capital could have a very significant impact on the Bitcoin spot ETF market where approximately $150.6 billion are currently being managed.

Appendix

Important information:

This article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy financial products. This article is for general informational purposes only, and there is no explicit or implicit assurance or guarantee regarding the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of this article or the opinions contained therein. It is advised not to rely on the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of this article or the opinions contained therein. Please note that this article is neither investment advice nor an offer or solicitation to acquire financial products or cryptocurrencies.

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Bitwise is one of the world’s leading crypto specialist asset managers. Thousands of financial advisors, family offices, and institutional investors across the globe have partnered with us to understand and access the opportunities in crypto. Since 2017, Bitwise has established a track record of excellence managing a broad suite of index and active solutions across ETPs, separately managed accounts, private funds, and hedge fund strategies—spanning both the U.S. and Europe.

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