Bitcoin Nears Key Support as Sentiment Resets: Have we seen the final bottom?

André Dragosch, PhD Director, Head of Research — Europe

Max Shannon Senior Research Associate

Luke Deans Senior Research Associate

André Dragosch, PhD Director, Head of Research — Europe

Max Shannon Senior Research Associate

Luke Deans Senior Research Associate

Overview

Chart of the Week
Performance
Sentiment
Fund Flows
On-Chain
Futures, Options & Perpetuals
Bottom Line
Appendix

Last week, cryptoassets continued to underperform due to ongoing risk-off sentiment across financial markets. In general, financial markets continued to be weighed down by a mixture of bearish news flow consisting of concerns over an AI bubble, a steep rise in Japanese government bond yields and reduced odds for Fed rate cuts. This weighed on major US equities which propagated to cryptoassets as well.
Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has technically flashed a contrarian buying signal again – the second time after the liquidation event on October 10th.
Chart of the Week: Bitcoin’s price has already approached a price range where we see a confluence of supporting price thresholds: Most importantly, bitcoin has recently approached (and even briefly undershot) the average cost basis across all US spot Bitcoin ETFs (around ~81k USD) which has been a key support during previous price corrections.

Chart of the Week

Performance

Last week, cryptoassets continued to underperform due to ongoing risk-off sentiment across financial markets.

In general, financial markets continued to be weighed down by a mixture of bearish news flow consisting of concerns over an AI bubble, a steep rise in Japanese government bond yields and reduced odds for Fed rate cuts. This weighed on major US equities which propagated to cryptoassets as well.

From an on-chain perspective, we have seen accelerating loss-taking by short-term holders of bitcoin, i.e. those investors that tend to exhibit a holding period of less than 155 days and which tend to be rather unsophisticated investors.

On the bright side, loss metrics of this investor cohort already exhibit a significant amount of financial “pain” which tends to be a contrarian signal.

More specifically, last week saw the second largest short-term holder capitulation event in Bitcoin's history, second only to the “Yen Carry Trade Unwind” in August 2024. Besides, Glassnode's “capitulation metric” also spiked to a 2-year high.

This is also reflected in our in-house Cryptoasset Sentiment Index which has technically flashed a contrarian buying signal again – the second time after the liquidation event on October 10th.

What is more is that bitcoin's price has already approached a price range where we see a confluence of supporting price thresholds:

Most importantly, Bitcoin has recently approached (and even briefly undershot) the average cost basis across all US spot Bitcoin ETFs (around ~81k USD) which has been a key support during previous price corrections (Chart-of-the-Week).

In this context, Friday already saw a reversal of fund flows with net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs across all issuers. What is even remarkable is that these ETFs recorded their highest trading volume on record on Friday – a sign of an imminent bottom.

There is also a confluence with the so-called “true market mean” of Bitcoin which is at around 82.5k USD. The true market mean is an on-chain metric for Bitcoin that measures the average cost basis of economically active coins - specifically those acquired through secondary market transactions, excluding lost or dormant supply. This tends to be a strong support during bull markets.

All in all, we think that a stabilization is more likely especially because the macro environment will continue to support a more positive risk sentiment going forward.

(More details will be provided in our upcoming Bitcoin Macro Investor report which we will publish next week).

We still expect that this latest correction is only an interim bull market correction and not the beginning of a bear market in bitcoin. In fact, this latest correction is still in line with previous bull market corrections both in terms of depth and duration as shown here.

The combination of attractive valuations, cleansed sentiment and positioning, as well as prospects for positive macro conditions creates a very attractive opportunity to increase exposure going into 2026.

In general, among the top 10 crypto assets Bitcoin Cash, Solana, and TRON were the relative outperformers.

Overall, altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis bitcoin has declined somewhat last week, with 35% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform bitcoin on a weekly basis. Ethereum also underperformed bitcoin last week.

Sentiment

Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has continued to exhibit bearish sentiment. Readings deteriorated further over the course of last week but nearly shifted to neutral yesterday. While this represents a modest improvement, it is not a definitive indication that sentiment will stabilise or strengthen in the week ahead.

At the moment, 6 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.

Last week, the Crypto Dispersion Index, the Hedge Fund Beta, BTC Long Futures Liquidation Dominance, BTC Exchange Inflows, STH SOPR and Crypto ETP Fund Flows metrics showed positive momentum.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently signals a “extreme fear” level of sentiment as of this morning. The index has spent the whole month of November in either “fear” or “extreme fear” territory so far.

Performance dispersion among cryptoassets stayed flat last week as cryptoassets traded in line with bitcoin. When dispersion is evident, it means that the market appears to be driven by a more diverse set of narratives which tends to be a sign of increasing risk appetite.

Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin slightly decreased last week, with around 35% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis. Nonetheless, Ethereum continued to underperform Bitcoin last week.

In general, increasing (decreasing) altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of increasing (decreasing) risk appetite within cryptoasset markets and the latest altcoin outperformance still signals increasing risk appetite at the moment.

Sentiment in traditional financial markets as measured by our in-house measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) increased slightly, moving from 0.13 to 0.14. This is a notable divergence between TradFi and crypto asset sentiment that should be watched closely.

Fund Flows

Global crypto ETPs continued to see significant outflows last week. However, it should be noted that excessive outflows tend to be a contrarian signal on its own.

Global crypto ETPs saw around - 1962.1 mn USD in weekly net outflows across all types of cryptoassets, after -1864.3 mn USD in net outflows the previous week.

Global Bitcoin ETPs have continued to experience net outflows totalling - 1244.9 mn USD last week, of which - 1216.4 mn USD in net outflows were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

The Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) in the US experienced net outflows, totalling -7.8 mn USD last week.

In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) experienced net outflows equivalent to -13.2 mn USD, while the Bitwise Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) experienced minor net inflows of +4.4 mn USD.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has posted net outflows of –172.3 mn USD and the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) also experienced net outflows of around –1085.6mn USD last week.

Meanwhile, flows into global Ethereum ETPs also experienced net outflows last week, with around -587.4 mn USD in net outflows.

US spot Ethereum ETFs, also recorded net outflows of around -500.3 mn USD on aggregate. The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), has posted net outflows of -121.9 mn USD.

The Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW) in the US has posted net inflows of 14.2 mn USD.

In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) saw minor net outflows of –11.9 mn USD while the Bitwise Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) saw no net inflows.

Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum experienced net outflows of –115.2 mn USD last week despite strong inflows into Solana ETFs in the US.

Thematic & basket crypto ETPs posted net outflows of -14.5 mn USD on aggregate last week. The Bitwise MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) has experienced no net inflows (+/-0.0 mn USD) on aggregate.

Global crypto hedge funds exposure to Bitcoin continued to increase last week. The 20-days rolling beta of global crypto hedge funds' performance to Bitcoin increased to around 0.94 per yesterday's close, up from 0.82 from the week before.

On-Chain Data

Sell-side pressure across exchanges is continuing to ease, with intraday spot buying minus selling improving from -$3.3bn to -$1.3bn, but it remains elevated overall. At the same time, on-chain profit taking is holding near $674mn per day, indicating that investors are continuing to de-risk in response to the unfavourable price action.

The recent correction has pushed Bitcoin into its largest drawdown of the cycle at 35%, marking the most challenging phase for investors so far. Furthermore, $765bn of invested value is now underwater, meaning 68% of all capital committed to the asset sits at a loss, the highest level observed since October 2023.

Across the $765bn of value now in loss, investors are holding approximately $152bn in unrealised losses, equal to 6.6% of market cap. In contrast, paper profits have compressed sharply, falling from a peak of $1.4tn in October 2025 to $724bn today, a decline of 48%.

The Bitcoin market crashed to $80.6k but is beginning to find support at the True Market Mean of $82k, which represents the average investor purchasing price. In addition, several key pricing levels cluster in this region, including the MSTR cost basis at $75k and the IBIT ETF cost basis at $81k, creating a concentrated zone of structural support. This suggests that the $82k to $75k channel is critical to maintain and may represent the market's maximum pain area, where further downside becomes increasingly difficult without a major shift in investor behaviour.

Notably, the market is now decisively below the $93.5k level, which marks the lower bound of the on-chain volume profile. A constructive development would be a meaningful amount of supply transacting in this zone, helping to establish a stronger base of support and signalling renewed investor demand. This remains the key level to reclaim, with a sustained move back above it likely to serve as a clear indication that market momentum is beginning to recover.

All in all, on-chain conditions suggest that the market has absorbed a tremendous amount of pain, with sentiment continuing to deteriorate as the drawdown deepens. Sell-side pressure across exchanges, while easing from -$3.3bn to -$1.3bn, remains elevated, and on-chain profit taking of around $674mn per day shows that investors are still de-risking into weakness. The correction has pushed Bitcoin into a 35% drawdown, with unrealised losses rising to $152bn, while paper profits have contracted sharply from $1.4tn to $724bn, marking a 48% decline.

Most importantly, the market has fallen decisively below $93.5k, the lower bound of the on-chain volume profile, making a sustained reclaim of this level essential for restoring constructive momentum. Price is now testing the $82k to $75k support channel, where the True Market Mean, IBIT ETF cost basis, and MSTR cost basis converge, suggesting this zone represents the market's maximum pain area and a critical region to defend in order to preserve broader bull market structure.

Futures, Options & Perpetuals

Over the past week, BTC perpetual futures open interest increased by 10.8k BTC across all exchanges, while CME futures open declined rose by -7.4k BTC, suggesting a contraction in institutional participation and an unwinding of the cash-and-carry trade. However, total open interest, in dollar denomination, remains well below levels seen in prior months, suggesting that traders continue to exercise caution following the recent market deleveraging.

BTC perpetual funding rates remain positive and have continued to compress as price declines. This is noteworthy, as funding would typically be expected to turn negative following such a deterioration in market structure. Instead, the persistence of positive funding suggests that traders are still positioning net long, indicating an attempt to capture a potential market bottom rather than a broad shift toward short positioning.

In general, when the funding rate is positive (negative), long (short) positions periodically pay short (long) positions, which is indicative of bullish (bearish) sentiment.

Notably, a substantial pocket of leverage remains concentrated in the $78k to $84k region, indicating that derivatives positioning may act as a catalyst for volatility in the weeks ahead. With a large cluster of positions likely to be sensitive to further downside, this zone represents an area where forced liquidation risk is elevated, increasing the probability of stop-driven moves as the market continues to probe for a local bottom.

The BTC 3-months annualised basis continues to decline to 3.9% p.a., averaged across various futures exchanges.

BTC options open interest has risen by a staggering +63k BTC, reaching a new ATH of 586k BTC. Additionally, the put to call open interest ratio has remained flat at 0.65. This suggests that appetite for downside protection remains elevated.

Furthermore, 25-delta skew across major BTC option tenors has risen sharply, indicating a growing appetite for downside protection. This suggests that investors are increasingly hedging against both near-term price weakness and broader medium-term uncertainty, reflecting a more defensive risk posture across the derivatives market.

Bottom Line

Last week, cryptoassets continued to underperform due to ongoing risk-off sentiment across financial markets. In general, financial markets continued to be weighed down by a mixture of bearish news flow consisting of concerns over an AI bubble, a steep rise in Japanese government bond yields and reduced odds for Fed rate cuts. This weighed on major US equities which propagated to cryptoassets as well.
Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has technically flashed a contrarian buying signal again – the second time after the liquidation event on October 10th.
Chart of the Week: Bitcoin’s price has already approached a price range where we see a confluence of supporting price thresholds: Most importantly, bitcoin has recently approached (and even briefly undershot) the average cost basis across all US spot Bitcoin ETFs (around ~81k USD) which has been a key support during previous price corrections.

Appendix

Important information:

This article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy financial products. This article is for general informational purposes only, and there is no explicit or implicit assurance or guarantee regarding the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of this article or the opinions contained therein. It is advised not to rely on the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of this article or the opinions contained therein. Please note that this article is neither investment advice nor an offer or solicitation to acquire financial products or cryptocurrencies.

Before investing in crypto ETPs, potentional investors should consider the following:

Potential investors should seek independent advice and consider relevant information contained in the base prospectus and the final terms for the ETPs, especially the risk factors mentioned therein. The invested capital is at risk, and losses up to the amount invested are possible. The product is subject to inherent counterparty risk with respect to the issuer of the ETPs and may incur losses up to a total loss if the issuer fails to fulfill its contractual obligations. The legal structure of ETPs is equivalent to that of a debt security. ETPs are treated like other securities.

About Bitwise

Bitwise is one of the world’s leading crypto specialist asset managers. Thousands of financial advisors, family offices, and institutional investors across the globe have partnered with us to understand and access the opportunities in crypto. Since 2017, Bitwise has established a track record of excellence managing a broad suite of index and active solutions across ETPs, separately managed accounts, private funds, and hedge fund strategies—spanning both the U.S. and Europe.

In Europe, for the past four years Bitwise (previously ETC Group) has developed an extensive and innovative suite of crypto ETPs, including Europe’s largest and most liquid bitcoin ETP.

This family of crypto ETPs is domiciled in Germany and approved by BaFin. We exclusively partner with reputable entities from the traditional financial industry, ensuring that 100% of the assets are securely stored offline (cold storage) through regulated custodians.

Our European products comprise a collection of carefully designed financial instruments that seamlessly integrate into any professional portfolio, providing comprehensive exposure to crypto as an asset class. Access is straightforward via major European stock exchanges, with primary listings on Xetra, the most liquid exchange for ETF trading in Europe.

Retail investors benefit from easy access through numerous DIY/online brokers, coupled with our robust and secure physical ETP structure, which includes a redemption feature.