Last week, cryptoassets underperformed as global crypto ETPs experienced significant net outflows. Sentiment also remained deeply bearish.
Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has continued to exhibit very bearish sentiment. Last week, it even reached the lowest level since April 2025.
Chart of the Week: despite the negative weekly performance, September is still on track to be a very positive month for bitcoin this year with around 3.7% at the time of writing this report. Historically speaking, on average, September usually tends to be the single worst month of the year for bitcoin. October and Q4 look more promising.
Chart of the Week
Bitcoin: Performance Seasonality
Performance
Last week, cryptoassets underperformed as global crypto ETPs experienced significant net outflows. Sentiment also remained deeply bearish – our Cryptoasset Sentiment Index touched the lowest level since April 2025.
Bitcoin also trailed gold's performance once again. The key to understand this performance discrepancy lies in the different macro factors that are influencing both assets –
Gold tends to be more responsive to monetary policy and movements in the US Dollar, whereas bitcoin is currently more influenced by global growth expectations from a pure quantitative perspective.
As a result, gold's recent performance already reflects the impact of accommodative monetary policy, while bitcoin's price action continues to mirror subdued growth expectations.
It is important to note, however, that shifts in global growth expectations typically lag behind changes in monetary policy.
This suggests that the rally in gold is likely to be followed, in time, by a significant rally in bitcoin.
This might also explain the current divergence between the ongoing all-time highs in global money supply and bitcoin's price.
That said, despite the negative weekly performance, September is still on track to be a very positive month for bitcoin this year with around 3.7% at the time of writing this report. Historically speaking, on average, September usually tends to be the single worst month of the year for bitcoin (Chart-of-the-week).
What is more is that Q4 is generally very positive for bitcoin from a performance perspective. November even tends to be the best month of the year.
Viewed from this angle, the current temporary weakness could be an attractive opportunity to increase exposure to bitcoin and cryptoassets ahead of a seasonally bullish fourth quarter.
In fact, it appears the market is in the process of establishing a bottom.
Last week, sentiment has twice reached “extreme fear” levels on an intraday basis, yet bitcoin has shown relative resilience, holding around ~$108k - a level that also aligns with the short-term holder cost basis – this appears to provide a strong support for bitcoin right now as sellers are increasingly exhausted.
Cross Asset Performance (Week-to-Date)
Source: Bloomberg, Coinmarketcap; performances in USD exept Bund Future
Top 10 Cryptoasset Performance (Week-to-Date)
Source: Coinmarketcap
In general, among the top 10 crypto assets TRON, Bitcoin, and XRP were the relative outperformers.
Overall, altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis bitcoin has continued to be low last week, with only 15% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform bitcoin on a weekly basis. Ethereum also underperformed bitcoin last week.
Sentiment
Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has continued to exhibit very bearish sentiment. Last week, it even reached the lowest level since April 2025.
At the moment, 5 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.
Last week, Bitcoin Exchange inflows and the Crypto Hedge Fund Beta metrics showed positive momentum.
Despite our bearish sentiment readings, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently signals a “Neutral” level of sentiment as of this morning. This is not a significant divergence from our readings as the index has spent the majority of time fluctuating in between “Neutral” and “Fear”. It has hit “Extreme Fear” on an intraday basis twice last week.
Performance dispersion among cryptoassets has remained low and stable, fluctuating between 0.28-0.32 last week, signalling that while altcoins have continued to be highly correlated with the performance of bitcoin.
Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has continued to be low last week, with around 15% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis. Ethereum also underperformed Bitcoin last week.
In general, increasing (decreasing) altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of increasing (decreasing) risk appetite within cryptoasset markets. This continues to indicate subdued risk appetite, even though it shows a slight improvement compared to prior weeks.
Sentiment in traditional financial markets as measured by our in-house measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) remained broadly unchanged from the previous week, easing slightly from 0.78 to 0.71.
Fund Flows
Global crypto ETPs experienced significant net outflows, further validating the deeply bearish sentiment that was present last week.
Global crypto ETPs saw around -1206.1 mn USD in weekly net outflows across all types of cryptoassets, after +1699.6 mn USD in net inflows the previous week.
Global Bitcoin ETPs experienced net outflows totalling -813.3 mn USD last week, of which -902.5 mn USD in net inflows were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) in the US experienced net outflows, totalling -92.4 mn USD last week.
In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) experienced net outflows equivalent to -2.1 mn USD, while the Bitwise Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) experienced minor net inflows of +0.3 mn USD.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has posted net outflows of -84.7 mn USD. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), however, experienced net inflows of around +173.9 mn USD last week.
Meanwhile, flows into global Ethereum ETPs followed suit with around -492.2 mn USD in net outflows.
US spot Ethereum ETFs, also recorded net outflows of around -795.6 mn USD on aggregate. The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), has posted net outflows of -38.4 mn USD.
The Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW) in the US has also posted net outflows of -78.3 mn USD.
In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) saw net outflows of -10.9 mn USD while the Bitwise Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) saw minor net outflows of -0.8 mn USD.
Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum, however, experienced net inflows of +174.1 mn USD last week.
Thematic & basket crypto ETPs, on the other hand, posted net outflows of -74.7 mn USD on aggregate last week. The Bitwise MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) saw minor net outflows of -0.5 mn USD
Global crypto hedge funds exposure to Bitcoin has increased last week. The 20-days rolling beta of global crypto hedge funds' performance to Bitcoin increased to around 0.62 per yesterday's close, up from 0.50 from the week before.
On-Chain Data
Intraday Spot Buying minus Selling volume continued to be negative during the week with net selling volumes at approximately -$0.87 bn on bitcoin spot exchanges.
Despite that, we see opposite behaviour from Bitcoin whales (entities that hold at least 1k BTC), who have continued to take bitcoins off exchanges on a net basis, indicating an increase in whale HODLing. It is also important to note that last week's trend was the strongest we've seen in nine months, approaching the levels last observed on December 17th 2024. More specifically, BTC whales removed -47,220 BTC from exchanges last week. These transfers could be related to internal exchange transfers but they are definitely something to keep in mind over the coming weeks.
Furthermore, based on recent data from Glassnode, the overall downward trend in exchange-held Bitcoin reserves has continued its downward trend. The current level stands at 2.883 million BTC, representing approximately 14.47% of the total circulating supply - a 31 bps decrease from last week.
It's worth noting that the 30-day measure of “apparent demand” for Bitcoin has remained positive but slowed over the past week, signalling a stagnation in the influx of short-term holders.
All in all, on-chain metrics point to a sustained trend of accumulation by large holders, suggesting that whale HODLing could help cushion selling pressure even as short-term demand moderates.
Futures, Options & Perpetuals
Last week, BTC futures open interest decreased last week by -10.0k BTC across all exchanges and decreased by -14.4k BTC on CME. Meanwhile, perpetual open interest decreased by around -5.2k BTC.
BTC perpetual funding remained positive throughout last week, indicating a continued long bias among traders, though the average funding rate drifted lower compared to the week prior.
In general, when the funding rate is positive (negative), long (short) positions periodically pay short (long) positions, which is indicative of bullish (bearish) sentiment.
The BTC 3-months annualised basis decreased last week to around 6.8% p.a., averaged across various futures exchanges.
BTC option open interest decreased significantly by around -134k BTC due to the quarterly options expiries and the put-call open interest ratio decreased slightly from 0.63 to 0.61.
Meanwhile, the 1-month 25-delta skew for BTC decreased throughout the week from +15.4% to +10.3%, signalling decreasing appetite for put options. However, the presence of a positive skew still indicates a preference for downside protection.
BTC option implied volatilities rose slightly versus last week. At the time of writing, implied volatilities of 1-month ATM Bitcoin options are currently at around 31.8% p.a. on Deribit, up by roughly 158 bps.
Bottom Line
Last week, cryptoassets underperformed as global crypto ETPs experienced significant net outflows. Sentiment also remained deeply bearish.
Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has continued to exhibit very bearish sentiment. Last week, it even reached the lowest level since April 2025.
Chart of the Week: despite the negative weekly performance, September is still on track to be a very positive month for bitcoin this year with around 3.7% at the time of writing this report. Historically speaking, on average, September usually tends to be the single worst month of the year for bitcoin. October and Q4 look more promising.
Appendix
Bitcoin Price vs Cryptoasset Sentiment Index
Source: Bloomberg, Coinmarketcap, Glassnode, NilssonHedge, alternative.me, Bitwise Europe
Cryptoasset Sentiment Index
Source: Bloomberg, Coinmarketcap, Glassnode, NilssonHedge, alternative.me, Bitwise Europe; *multiplied by (-1)
Cryptoasset Sentiment Index
Source: Bloomberg, Coinmarketcap, Glassnode, NilssonHedge, alternative.me, Bitwise Europe
TradFi Sentiment Indicators
Source: Bloomberg, NilssonHedge, Bitwise Europe
Crypto Sentiment Indicators
Source: Coinmarketcap, alternative.me, Bitwise Europe
Crypto Options' Sentiment Indicators
Source: Glassnode, Bitwise Europe
Crypto Futures & Perpetuals' Sentiment Indicators
Source: Glassnode, Bitwise Europe; *Inverted
Crypto On-Chain Indicators
Source: Glassnode, Bitwise Europe
Bitcoin vs Crypto Fear & Greed Index
Source: alternative.me, Coinmarketcap, Bitwise Europe
Cryptoasset Sentiment Index: Daily vs Hourly
Source: Bloomberg, Coinmarketcap, Glassnode, NilssonHedge, alternative.me, CFGI.io, Bitwise Europe
Bitcoin vs Global Crypto ETP Fund Flows
Source: Bloomberg, Bitwise Europe; ETPs only, data subject to change
Global Crypto ETP Fund Flows
Source: Bloomberg, Bitwise Europe; ETPs only; data subject to change
US Spot Bitcoin ETF Fund Flows
Source: Bloomberg, Bitwise Europe; data subject to change
US Spot Bitcoin ETFs: Flows since launch
Source: Bloomberg, Fund flows since traiding launch on 11/01/24; data subject to change
US Spot Bitcoin ETFs: 5-days flow
Source: Bloomber; data subject to change
US Bitcoin ETFs: Net Fund Flows since 11th Jan mn USD
Source: Bloomberg, Bitwise Europe; data as of 26-09-2025
US Sport Ethereum ETF Fund Flows
Source: Bloomberg, Bitwise Europe; data subject to change
US Sport Ethereum ETFs: Flows since launch
Source: Bloomberg, Fund flows since trading launch on 23/07/24; data subject on change
US Sport Ethereum ETFs: 5-days flow
Source: Bloomberg; data subject on change
US Ethereum ETFs: Net Fund Flows since 23rd July
Source: Bloomberg, Bitwise Europe; data as of 26-09-2025
Bitcoin vs Crypto Hedge Fund Beta
Source: Glassnode, Bloomberg, NilssonHedge, Bitwise Europe
Altseason Index
Source: Coinmetrics, Bitwise Europe
Bitcoin vs Crypto Dispersion Index
Source: Coinmarketcap, Bitwise Europe; Dispersion = (1 - Average Altcoin Correlation with Bitcoin)
Bitcoin Price vs Futures Basis Rate
Source: Glassnode, Bitwise Europe; data as of 2025-09-28
Ethereum Price vs Futures Basis Rate
Source: Glassnode, Bitwise Europe; data as of 2025-09-28
BTC Net Exchange Volume by Size
Source: Glassnode, Bitwise Europe
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