Bitcoin Tops $120K! Crypto Sentiment Index Flags More Upside

André Dragosch, PhD Director, Head of Research — Europe

Ayush Tripathi Research Analyst

Overview

Chart of the Week
Performance
Sentiment
Fund Flows
On-Chain
Futures, Options & Perpetuals
Bottom Line
Appendix

Last week, cryptoassets outperformed significantly as bitcoin reached new all-time highs and crossed 120,000 USD for the first time ever.
Our in-house Cryptoasset Sentiment Index continues to signal a bullish sentiment but hasn’t flagged a technical overheating signal, yet. This implies that the current leg up in prices still has some room to run.
Chart of the Week: One of the key drivers of the most recent rally is strong demand for bitcoin and other cryptoassets via ETPs. More specifically, global net inflows into cryptoasset ETPs almost reached +$4 billion which represented the biggest weekly net inflows in 2025.

Chart of the Week

Performance

Last week, cryptoassets outperformed significantly as bitcoin reached new all-time highs and crossed 120,000 USD for the first time ever.

With the latest rally, Bitcoin's market cap has already surpassed that of Amazon which makes Bitcoin the 5^th most valuable single asset in the world.

One of the key drivers of the most recent rally is strong demand for bitcoin and other cryptoassets via ETPs. More specifically, global net inflows into cryptoasset ETPs almost reached +$4 billion which represented the biggest weekly net inflows in 2025 (Chart-of-the-Week).

In general, we also saw the second biggest daily inflows on record since November 2024. The daily level of US spot bitcoin ETF inflows also reached the second highest level year-to-date. Last Friday alone, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded +$1.03 bn in net inflows in a single day and the whole week saw total net inflows of +$2.724 bn USD.

US spot bitcoin ETFs alone purchased 23,831 BTC over the past 5 trading days, outpacing the number of newly mined bitcoins by a factor of 9.9 times! This significant demand-supply imbalance is trying to equilibrate itself via higher prices.

Global net inflows into Ethereum ETPs were also relatively bullish – in fact, last week saw the highest level of inflows in 2025 with +$978.1 mn. These significant net inflows into global Ethereum ETPs also underscore a general increase in risk appetite which is fuelling a renewed outperformance in altcoins vis-à-vis bitcoin (“alt season”).

An important factor that has also amplified the rally in bitcoin to new all-time highs were significant short futures liquidations. In fact, bitcoin short futures liquidations spiked to the highest level since February 2021 according to data provided by Glassnode. This tends to amplify price rises as short traders need to buy back the underlying bitcoins in order to neutralise their short position.

Market sentiment is generally becoming more bullish which is also being signalled by “extreme greed” readings of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index. That being said, our in-house Cryptoasset Sentiment Index hasn't flagged a technical overheating signal, yet. This implies that the current leg up in prices still has some room to run.

This notion is also supported by the fact that the most recent rally doesn't seem to be caused by significant retail participation. In fact, the low number of Google search queries for the term ‘bitcoin' suggests a relatively low level of retail interest in bitcoin at the moment.

It is generally worth noting that the positive fundamentals such as the significant demand-supply imbalance on exchanges were already in place well in advance of the latest rally to new all-time highs as highlighted in our monthly Bitcoin Macro Investor report.

However, a clear catalyst was still missing but it seems as if the recent signing of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act (OBBB) has just provided that. President Donald Trump signed the OBBB into law on July 4 which raised the US debt ceiling by another $5 trillion and include cuts to federal aid, an increase in long-term debt, and tax reductions for wealthy individuals. This is coming at a time when any efforts to reduce federal spending have failed (DOGE) and the sustainability of US fiscal debt is increasingly being questioned.

In the context of sovereign debt, it is also worth noting that other sovereign debt markets are already showing signs of significant market stress. For instance, Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) are exhibiting the lowest level of liquidity on record which is currently leading to a significant spike in long-term JGB yields. It seems as if traditional investors are already shunning major sovereign debt markets in light of increasing fiscal debt levels. Japan is one of the most indebted countries worldwide with a fiscal debt to GDP ratio of 237% per the end of 2024.

As a decentralised scarce asset with essentially no counterparty and credit risk, bitcoin is one of the key assets to benefit the most from these macro developments.

Another bullish catalyst were rumours about a potential resignation of Fed chairman Powell which were reinforced by the chairman of the FHFA Pulte.

US president Trump has repeatedly called for Powell's resignation and also significant Fed rate cuts (up to 300 basis points at once). Hence, rumours of Powell's potential resignation are fuelling additional rate cut expectations which tends to be a tailwind for bitcoin.

All in all, the prospects for increased fiscal spending in the US combined with looser Fed monetary policy create a very bullish macro backdrop for bitcoin and other cryptoassets amid a global money supply that has already reached new all-time highs and continues to accelerate.

In general, among the top 10 crypto assets Stellar, Cardano, and XRP were the relative outperformers.

Overall altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis bitcoin has accelerated last week, with 75% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform bitcoin on a weekly basis. Ethereum also managed to outperform bitcoin significantly last week.

Sentiment

Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” continues to signal a bullish sentiment but no euphoria, yet.

At the moment, 13 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.

Global crypto ETP flows and Bitcoin's Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH-NUPL) showed very positive movements.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently signals a “Greed” level of sentiment as of this morning. It even briefly touched “Extreme Greed” levels on the 12 ^th of July which was the highest reading since January 2025.

Performance dispersion among cryptoassets remained low and stable last week, signalling that altcoins have continued to be highly correlated with the performance of bitcoin.

Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has increased from last week, with around 75% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis. Ethereum also managed to outperform Bitcoin last week.

In general, increasing (decreasing) altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of increasing (decreasing) risk appetite within cryptoasset markets and the latest altcoin outperformance signals an increasing risk appetite at the moment.

Sentiment in traditional financial markets as measured by our in-house measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) has also increased, moving from 0.56 to 0.65.

Fund Flows

Weekly fund flows into global crypto ETPs accelerated significantly to the highest level in 2025.

Global crypto ETPs saw around +3,765.1 mn USD in weekly net inflows across all types of cryptoassets, after + 828.8 mn USD in net inflows the previous week.

Global Bitcoin ETPs have experienced net inflows totalling +2,707.9 mn USD last week, of which +2,723.3 mn USD in net inflows were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

The Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) in the US experienced net inflows, totalling +86.6 mn USD last week.

In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) experienced minor net outflows equivalent to -8.4 mn USD, while the Bitwise Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) experienced minor net inflows of +0.7 mn USD.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has posted net outflows of -50.4 mn USD. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), experienced strong net inflows of around +1,759 mn USD last week.

Meanwhile, flows into global Ethereum ETPs also accelerated last week, reaching the highest level year-to-date with around +978.1 mn USD in net inflows.

US spot Ethereum ETFs, also recorded net inflows of around +908 mn USD on aggregate. The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), has posted net inflows of +36.6 mn USD.

The Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW) in the US has posted also net inflows of +8.3 mn USD.

In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) saw minor net outflows of -0.7 mn USD while the Bitwise Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) saw significant net inflows of +9.5 mn USD.

Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum also experienced significant net inflows of +114.7 mn USD last week, underscoring the rising risk appetite for altcoins.

However, thematic & basket crypto ETPs continued to be out of favour, with net outflows of around -35.6 mn USD on aggregate last week. The Bitwise MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) had sticky AuM (+/- 0 mn USD).

Global crypto hedge funds exposure to Bitcoin has increased last week. The 20-days rolling beta of global crypto hedge funds' performance to Bitcoin increased to around 0.73 per yesterday's close, up from 0.66 from the week before.

On-Chain Data

Last week, Bitcoin's on-chain activity improved but still leave room for more upside.

Net buying volumes on bitcoin spot exchanges turned briefly positive for the first time since May 2025 which alleviated the downside pressure on the price. Nonetheless, net buying volumes over the past 7 days continued to be slightly negative highlighting ongoing selling pressure on bitcoin spot exchanges despite new all-time highs!

In fact, realized profits to exchanges have spiked to the highest level since late last year which implies a more significant increase in profit-taking amid new all-time highs.

That being said, bitcoin whales have continued to send bitcoins off exchanges on a net basis, indicating an increase in whale buying interest. More specifically, BTC whales removed -15,673 BTC from exchanges last week which significantly influenced overall net exchange transfers. This tends to put upward pressure on prices. Network entities that control at least 1,000 Bitcoin are referred to as whales.

Furthermore, based on recent data from Glassnode, the overall downward trend in exchange-held Bitcoin reserves remains intact. The current level stands at 2.874 million BTC, representing approximately 14.45% of the total circulating supply.

It's worth noting that the 30-day measure of “apparent demand” for Bitcoin remained positive and continued to reaccelerate over the past week. This is signalling a renewed influx of short-term holders (read “retail investors”) as well.

All in all, on-chain metrics have improved but there is still room for further upside especially with respect to the amount of net buying volumes on bitcoin exchanges. Overall net buying volumes are significantly influenced by a high volume of profit-taking at the moment.

Futures, Options & Perpetuals

Last week, BTC futures open interest increased last week by +23k BTC across all exchanges, and increased by +2k BTC on CME. Meanwhile, perpetual open interest increased by around +22k BTC.

BTC perpetual funding rates continued to remain positive and upward trending last week indicating a bullish sentiment among traders in the perpetual futures market and a long bias.

In general, when the funding rate is positive (negative), long (short) positions periodically pay short (long) positions, which is indicative of bullish (bearish) sentiment.

The BTC 3-months annualised basis increased significantly last week to around 7.7% p.a., averaged across various futures exchanges.

BTC option open interest increased by around +31k BTC while the put-call open interest ratio increased slightly to 0.58. We observed some significant spikes in the put-call volume ratio indicating an increasing appetite for downside protection during this rally.

Meanwhile, the 1-month 25-delta skew for BTC decreased throughout the week from +2.1% to -1.9% signalling increasing appetite for call options. The presence of a negative skew indicates some preference for upside exposure.

BTC option implied volatilities increased slightly compared to last week, while the 1-month realized volatility also ticked higher at around 31.6% p.a.

At the time of writing, implied volatilities of 1-month ATM Bitcoin options are currently at around 37.1% p.a. on Deribit.

Bottom Line

Last week, cryptoassets outperformed significantly as bitcoin reached new all-time highs and crossed 120,000 USD for the first time ever.
Our in-house Cryptoasset Sentiment Index continues to signal a bullish sentiment but hasn’t flagged a technical overheating signal, yet. This implies that the current leg up in prices still has some room to run.
Chart of the Week: One of the key drivers of the most recent rally is strong demand for bitcoin and other cryptoassets via ETPs. More specifically, global net inflows into cryptoasset ETPs almost reached +$4 billion which represented the biggest weekly net inflows in 2025.

Appendix

Important information:

This article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy financial products. This article is for general informational purposes only, and there is no explicit or implicit assurance or guarantee regarding the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of this article or the opinions contained therein. It is advised not to rely on the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of this article or the opinions contained therein. Please note that this article is neither investment advice nor an offer or solicitation to acquire financial products or cryptocurrencies.

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