Bitcoin Outperforms Gold as Energy Crisis Shakes Global Markets

André Dragosch, PhD Director, Head of Research — Europe

Max Shanon Senior Research Associate

Luke Deans Senior Research Associate

André Dragosch, PhD Director, Head of Research — Europe

Max Shanon Senior Research Associate

Luke Deans Senior Research Associate

Overview

Chart of the Week
Performance
Sentiment
Fund Flows
On-Chain
Futures, Options & Perpetuals
Bottom Line
Appendix

Performance: Despite volatility across traditional markets, Bitcoin outperformed gold and global equities last week, showing resilience amid rising oil prices, higher yields, and geopolitical tensions.
Sentiment: The Cryptoasset Sentiment Index continued to signal bearish sentiment, highlighting persistent market caution despite resilient price performance and ongoing institutional inflows.
Chart of the Week: Our analysis shows Bitcoin has become increasingly sensitive to US market-based inflation expectations since 2020, suggesting rising inflation expectations may help explain its recent resilience.

Chart of the Week

Performance

Last week, crypto markets experienced mixed performance amid ongoing geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and rapidly rising energy prices.

A key pain point for global markets is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz where approximately 20% of global crude oil supply is being shipped (≈ 20 million barrels/day). Besides, about 20% of global LNG trade (mostly from Qatar) goes through the strait. The current crude oil supply shock is already the biggest one in history.

High-frequency shipping data signal that maritime traffic through the strait has effectively come to a halt. This is leading to rapidly declining oil and natural gas inventories across the globe which is why energy prices have continued to rally.

This is now affecting traditional markets such as equities and bonds negatively. For instance, S&P 500 futures have continued to trade lower alongside rising crude oil prices over the weekend. Treasury bond yields have also increased due to rising market-based inflation expectations (CPI swaps and break-even rates) that are usually tightly linked to global energy prices.

Rising energy prices are also fuelling rate hike expectations for major central banks. For instance, rate markets already price in slightly more than 1 rate hike for the ECB until the end of 2026. Fed Funds Futures anticipate only 1 rate cut for the Fed, down from 2 rate cuts expected last month. The FOMC is about to convene on the 18th of March – economists expect no change in the Fed's policy rate though based on Bloomberg consensus expectations.

From a macro perspective, rising energy prices alone shouldn't derail the recovery in the US economy. Although they tend to weigh on consumer spending due to a decline in disposable income, rising energy prices tend to be a tailwind for the US ISM Manufacturing Index as highlighted in our latest Bitcoin Macro Investor report.

That being said, rising energy prices and rate hike expectations are already creating jitters in leveraged loans and private credit markets. Last week, Blackrock limited withdrawals in its $26 bn private credit fund amid illiquidity in these assets. The pronounced underperformance in assets like private credit, leveraged loans and business development companies is generally signalling a tightening in US financial conditions that could spill over into global financial markets at some point.

Nonetheless, bitcoin and other cryptoassets have shown resilience amid rising energy prices and rate hike expectations. In fact, bitcoin outperformed both gold and global equities last week.

A possible explanation is that bitcoin has become increasingly sensitive to US market-based inflation expectations, especially since the Covid crisis in 2020 (Chart-of-the-week).

Based on this statistical observation, it is quite likely that bitcoin may continue to show resilience although Historical statistical patterns suggest Bitcoin has previously shown resilience in similar conditions, though this correlation may not persist. Material downside risks remain amid elevated uncertainty and potential contagion through equity and credit markets.

Fund flows into ETPs have also proven to be resilient with totalled around 480 mn USD in net inflows into global bitcoin ETPs last week based on our estimates with Bloomberg data. This is equivalent to around 7,164 BTC acquired via global bitcoin ETPs.

Meanwhile, Michael Saylor's Strategy (MSTR) most likely continued to accumulate bitcoins via the issuance of its Stretch (STRC) perpetual preferred equity. According to estimates by strc.live, Strategy likely bought approximately 3,263 BTC via STRC issuances alone which is more than the weekly new issuance of bitcoins (~3,125 BTC) already.

In other words, institutional demand via bitcoin ETPs and treasury companies is likely supporting the market to a significant degree at the moment.

In general, among the top 10 crypto assets TRON, Bitcoin, and Bitcoin Cash were the relative outperformers.

Overall, altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis bitcoin decreased significantly last week, with none of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform bitcoin on a weekly basis (0%). Ethereum also underperformed bitcoin slightly last week.

Sentiment

Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” is currently signalling a negative sentiment that has worsened week over week as energy prices and inflation expectations have increased, therefore weighing on risk assets such as crypto.

At the moment, 3 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.

Last week, only the BTC Exchange Inflows, BTC STH SOPR, and Crypto Dispersion showed positive momentum.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index continues to signal an “extreme fear” level of sentiment as of this morning after retracting from its highest level on Thursday since the beginning of February. This coincides with declining crypto sentiment.

Performance dispersion among cryptoassets increased significantly last week from 0.17 to 0.28. When dispersion is increasing, it may indicate that the market appears to be driven by a more diverse set of narratives which, in our analysis, has historically been associated with periods of increasing risk appetite in prior market cycles. However, this week's improving dispersion is incongruent with declining sentiment and Fear and Greed, suggesting these narratives are fickle.

Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin decreased significantly last week, with 0% of our tracked altcoins in the index. This may be partially explained by the decline in sentiment.

In general, increasing altcoin outperformance may be a sign of increasing risk appetite within cryptoasset markets.

Sentiment in traditional financial markets as measured by our in-house measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) increased to 0.1 over the past week which is signalling an improvement in sentiment in traditional financial markets.

CME Bitcoin Commercials Net Positioning, which shows the difference between long and short CME Bitcoin futures contracts eased somewhat from –4.56 to –4.03. This suggests institutions continue to be biased toward selling futures as the outlook for BTC is possibly skewed to the downside although institutions have pared their net short exposure somewhat.

Fund Flows

Global crypto ETPs saw total net inflows last week across all Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoins Ex-Ethereum, and basket and thematic products.

Global crypto ETPs saw around +594.9 mn USD in weekly net inflows across all types of cryptoassets, after +1039.6 mn USD in net inflows the previous week.

Global Bitcoin ETPs have experienced net inflows totalling +480.3 mn USD last week, of which +568.6 mn USD in net inflows were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

The Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) in the US experienced net outflows, totalling -24.2 mn USD last week.

In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) experienced net outflows equivalent to -0.7 mn USD, whereas the Bitwise Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) experienced net inflows of +4.7 mn USD.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) posted net outflows of -35 mn USD and the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) experienced net inflows of around +660 mn USD last week.

Meanwhile, global Ethereum ETPs also experienced +90.5 mn USD in net inflows last week, of which US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net inflows of around +23.6 mn USD on aggregate.

The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) posted net inflows of +16.4 mn USD, alongside the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) that experienced +133.2 mn USD of net inflows.

The Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW) in the US has posted net inflows of +7.5 mn USD.

In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) saw minor net outflows of -6 mn USD, as the Bitwise Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) saw +3.3 mn USD of net inflows.

Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum experienced net inflows of +15 mn USD last week.

Thematic & basket crypto ETPs posted net inflows of +9.1 mn USD on aggregate last week. The Bitwise MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) experienced net inflows last week of +0.3 mn USD on aggregate.

On-Chain Data

Bitcoin posted its strongest rally this week since the February 5th contraction, reaching a high of $74k, its highest price since the capitulation event. However, price was rejected and retraced back toward the $67k region, leaving net displacement largely unchanged. This price action highlights the prevailing market structure: on a macro scale the market remains range-bound, characterised by bouts of local volatility that repeatedly entice investors through failed breakouts and breakdowns.

Exchange-side sell pressure remains relatively soft, with the intraday spot buy–sell imbalance closing near –$835mn (vs –$617mn prior). Meanwhile, aggregate exchange inflows and outflows rose modestly to $4.5bn from $3.7bn the week prior. Despite this uptick suggesting a modest improvement in activity, absolute flows remain among the lowest observed since the start of 2025, signalling subdued participation and a broadly defensive investor posture amid elevated macro uncertainty.

Aggregate investor stress remains elevated and largely unchanged. The value of invested capital held at a loss is estimated at ~$859bn (~79% of Realised Cap), while unrealised losses across underwater supply sit near –$246bn. The persistence of the unrealised pressure reflects a fragile market structure, where a substantial cohort of investors remains under financial pressure.

The market remains in a loss-driven regime, with aggregate loss-taking outweighing investor profit-taking and net realised losses reaching –$520mn. Notably, net loss-taking has remained within this ballpark for the past three weeks, suggesting the current pace of realised losses has become the baseline within the prevailing trading range as panicking investors gradually exhaust their supply. On balance, this phase of net capital destruction typically weighs on market structure as liquidity tightens. As such, the market may require a directional move to re-engage fresh liquidity, similar to the bouts of local volatility already observed within the broader range.

Key price levels remain broadly unchanged, with the market appearing bounded between $60k, the current cycle low, and $80k, the region from which the recent contraction accelerated. On-chain valuation levels present a similar structure, with the Realised Price near $55k and the True Market Mean around $78k outlining comparable lower and upper bounds.

The $70k level remains the midpoint of the range and the local point of control. Assessing the on-chain volume profile shows a large concentration of coins positioned around the $70k region, marking it as a sensitive investor zone. Above this lies a relative volume air gap between $70k and $80k, where comparatively few coins have changed hands. This suggests that strong demand impulses could accelerate price through this region, similar to the speed the market moved through it during the recent decline. However, the rejection near $73k suggests current demand has not yet been strong enough to sustain such a move.

Overall, the market appears confined to a broad range between $60k and $80k. This range is supported across multiple market segments, including technical, on-chain, and derivatives markets, reinforcing the case for the prevailing trading range. Despite Bitcoin posting its strongest rally since the February 5th contraction, the rejection near $74k reinforces the range-bound regime. Notably, investor stress remains elevated, with realised loss-taking still outweighing profit-taking, indicating the market remains in a loss-driven and fragile state at present.

Futures, Options & Perpetuals

Over the past week, BTC perpetual futures open interest climbed by approximately +26.4k BTC, while CME futures open interest fell by –3k BTC, signalling a modest contraction in institutional positioning. Additionally, aggregate futures liquidations across all assets surged, as whipsawing price action forced many offside investors out of position. Notably, total liquidations reached over $2.6bn over the week (vs. $1.1bn prior).

From a positioning perspective, significant open interest clusters are forming around $74k, aligning with the region where the market recently rejected on its upward move. Additional open interest is also building near $62.5k, broadly consistent with the $60k lower bound identified within the prevailing range.

Perpetual funding rates (7-day moving average) have declined week-on-week and have turned negative for the first time since July 2025, indicating that the marginal but persistent long bias among futures traders has flipped short. This suggests a reset in investor sentiment may be underway, with market positioning now skewed toward downside expectations. Historically, such conditions have often been constructive, signalling a rebalancing in excess exuberance and risk appetite.

In parallel, the BTC 3-month annualised basis remains depressed and has continued to contract, declining from 2.7% to 2.4%, among the lowest readings of the cycle. At present, basis remains well below prevailing US Treasury bill yields, highlighting acute risk aversion and subdued demand for leveraged long exposure among market participants.

Turning to options markets, BTC options open interest increased modestly by approximately 5k BTC, bringing total open interest to 465.5k BTC. Notably, the Deribit put-to-call open interest ratio fell sharply from a five-year high of 0.81 to 0.70, marking one of the largest weekly declines on record. The equivalent measure across IBIT options remained largely unchanged at 0.68 by week's end. Taken together, these dynamics suggest a rapid unwind in downside hedging on the Deribit venue as BTC rallied toward $73k.

However, with price now retracing, it remains to be seen whether this shift in positioning persists through the remainder of the month.

Furthermore, the 25-delta skew declined over the week but remains elevated. This suggests demand for downside protection across both short- and medium-dated maturities has begun to moderate, although the still-elevated skew indicates investor sentiment remains defensive on balance.

Options dealer gamma positioning remains predominantly negative across the $60k–$78k range, broadly mirroring the technical and on-chain trading range of $60k–$80k. Strong alignment across multiple market segments reinforces the case for the prevailing macro trading range. Notably, moderate positive gamma concentrations emerge across $80k–$85k, reinforcing the importance of the $80k region.

Total GEX (7-day moving average) has moderated slightly from $4.9bn to $4.5bn. With GEX still deeply negative, dealers remain structurally short convexity, a configuration that has historically coincided with amplified price swings and volatility clustering, as observed during the recent surge to $73k and its subsequent retracement.

Bottom Line

Performance: Despite volatility across traditional markets, Bitcoin outperformed gold and global equities last week, showing resilience amid rising oil prices, higher yields, and geopolitical tensions.
Sentiment: The Cryptoasset Sentiment Index continued to signal bearish sentiment, highlighting persistent market caution despite resilient price performance and ongoing institutional inflows.
Chart of the Week: Our analysis shows Bitcoin has become increasingly sensitive to US market-based inflation expectations since 2020, suggesting rising inflation expectations may help explain its recent resilience.

Appendix

Important Information

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