Bitcoin Pauses at $95K: Institutions Bet Big as Brokers Jump In

André Dragosch, PhD Director, Head of Research — Europe

Overview

Chart of the Week
Performance
Sentiment
Fund Flows
On-Chain
Futures, Options & Perpetuals
Bottom Line
Appendix

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Bitcoin traded sideways last week, but institutional accumulation remained strong, with crypto ETPs recording almost $2.0 bn in inflows—$1.81 bn of that into Bitcoin alone. Schwab and Morgan Stanley advanced plans for spot crypto trading, while short-term holders drove profit-taking pressure that kept prices range-bound despite corporate and ETF purchases.
Crypto sentiment remained cautiously constructive, with our in-house Cryptoasset Sentiment Index showing a slightly bullish bias and improving fund flows. However, altcoin underperformance returned, risk appetite softened, and Ethereum trailed Bitcoin.
Chart of the Week: Short-term holders are selling into strength, as Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio hits break-even territory (0.01). Despite positive “apparent demand” and long-term conviction, net selling volumes exceeded $1 bn last week. Once cleared, this could set the stage for a renewed upside trend.

Chart of the Week

Performance

Bitcoin spent last week in a narrow $93K–$97K range, showing little in the way of price action. One of the key reasons appears to be related to increased profit-taking, especially by short-term holders of bitcoin. Short-term holders are defined as those investors with a holding period of less than 155 days, which tends to be comprised of unsophisticated investors.

This cohort of holders just recently broke even again, which has most-likely induced a significant amount of selling on exchanges as implied by the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio (Chart-of-the-Week). In fact, net buying volumes on bitcoin spot exchange have remained rather neutral despite very sizeable bitcoin purchases by both bitcoin ETPs and corporations.

For instance, global crypto ETPs recorded large inflows for the second week running- almost $2 bn this week, following $3.39 bn the week prior. Of that, $1.81 billion flowed into Bitcoin, extending a trend of sustained allocations that has been in place since January.

Furthermore, publicly listed corporations have increased their bitcoin holdings significantly, as reported in our latest Bitcoin Macro Investor report for May 2025.

Moreover, Charles Schwab confirmed it plans to offer spot Bitcoin and Ether trading in the next 12 months. Crypto ETF access is already live-but that was step one. This next move brings digital assets into parity with equities and fixed income in terms of accessibility. It also comes on the heels of a 400% surge in crypto-related traffic to Schwab's client education pages last quarter.

Morgan Stanley is also reportedly preparing to launch spot crypto trading for its E*Trade clients next year, in what would be one of the most significant brokerage rollouts of digital asset access to date. The bank is exploring partnerships with major crypto firms to support trading in assets like Bitcoin and Ether. Discussions began gaining momentum in late 2024, following regulatory signals and ETF approvals that de-risked entry. While still in the planning phase, the move would bring crypto access directly into one of the largest retail brokerage platforms in the U.S.-a notable competitive response to ongoing product expansion at firms like Charles Schwab

Reflecting a shift from debating whether to adopt Bitcoin to determining how to do so, our CIO Matt Hougan illustrated today's institutional Bitcoin ecosystem-custodians like Fidelity, market‐maker liquidity from Jane Street, ownership by top hedge funds and pension plans, and ETFs backed by BlackRock and Invesco-so convincingly that a hesitant wirehouse advisor resolved, “I'm going to buy Bitcoin.”

The implication is that once the current flurry of selling by short-term holders has passed, Bitcoin will likely continue rallying on these strong accumulation trends.

On the macro front, the week delivered a string of data points that collectively signalled a tug-of-war between resilience and risk. The April jobs report surprised to the upside with 177,000 jobs added, but job openings declined, while the quits rate rose-an unusual divergence hinting at both cautious hiring and continued worker confidence. Meanwhile, Q1 GDP came in at -0.3% quarter-over-quarter, dragged lower by a surge in imports that weighed on net exports. Under the surface, however, consumer spending remained firm and business investment climbed-a sign that demand may be front-loaded in anticipation of tariff pressures.

Core PCE inflation, a key Fed metric, was flat for the month, below expectations. Yet ISM manufacturing data showed rising input costs, with the prices-paid index accelerating. That combination-disinflation in current prints but sticky signals from leading indicators-highlights the Fed's current dilemma. While growth hasn't stalled, neither have inflation concerns. For allocators, this translates to a market still groping for direction, where non-correlated assets carry new relevance.

As far as Ethereum is concerned, it looks as if so-called “conviction buyers” are accumulating ETH again, as shown in last week's Alt View RSI heatmap. ETH accumulation has generally resumed in 2025, with long-term holders lowering their cost basis while short-term traders remaining on the sidelines. These aren't short-term rotations. They're long-horizon allocations. Wallets linked to Cumberland, for example, recently withdrew over $50M in ETH from centralized exchanges into long-term custody-a clear sign of institutional positioning.

At the infrastructure level, momentum is accelerating. Circle launched a full-service payments stack for institutions. Stripe brought USDC directly into its checkout flow. And Tether reported over $1 bn in Q1 operating profit, driven by Treasury holdings and reserve growth. Meanwhile, BlackRock filed to tokenize shares in its $150 bn Treasury Trust Fund, signalling intent to move stable-value exposure fully on-chain.

Regulatory clarity is also inching forward. The SEC quietly dropped its investigation into PayPal's PYUSD stablecoin, marking a positive signal for compliant fintech-native issuers. Mastercard announced partnerships with Circle and Paxos to enable stablecoin payments across its 150 million merchant network, turning once-hypothetical use cases into real rails.

In general, among the top 10 crypto assets Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP were the relative outperformers.

Overall, altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin decreased from last week, with none of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis. Furthermore, Ethereum underperformed Bitcoin last week.

Sentiment

Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has continued to signal a slightly bullish sentiment.

At the moment, 6 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.

The Crypto Fear & Greed and Crypto Fund Flows metrics have improved compared to last week, while the BTC STH NUPL increased, implying further sell side pressure from this cohort on exchanges.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently signals a “Neutral” level of sentiment as of this morning, improving from last week.

Performance dispersion among cryptoassets remains at very low levels, signalling that altcoins have continued to be highly correlated with the performance of Bitcoin lately.

Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has decreased from last week, with around none of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis. Ethereum also managed to underperform Bitcoin last week.

In general, increasing (decreasing) altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of increasing (decreasing) risk appetite within cryptoasset markets and the latest altcoin underperformance signals a bearish risk appetite at the moment.

Sentiment in traditional financial markets as measured by our in-house measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) has improved slightly while remaining at low levels, moving from -0.11 to 0.

Fund Flows

Weekly fund flows into global crypto ETPs have continued to post large net inflows last week.

Global crypto ETPs saw around +1987.9 mn USD in weekly net inflows across all types of cryptoassets, after +3393.1 mn USD in net inflows the previous week.

GlobalBitcoinETPs have experienced net inflows totalling +1811.1 mn USD last week, of which +1805.2 mn USD in net inflows were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

The Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) in the US experienced net outflows, totalling -30.2 mn USD last week.

In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) also experienced net outflows equivalent to -0.8 mn USD, while the Bitwise Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) experienced minor net inflows of +0.4 mn USD.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has posted net outflows of -58.6 mn USD. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), however, experienced net inflows of around +2481.0 mn USD last week.

Meanwhile, flows into globalEthereumETPs continued to be positive last week, with around +142.8 mn USD in net inflows last week

US Ethereum spot ETFs, also recorded net inflows of around +106.8 mn USD on aggregate. The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), however, experienced net outflows of around -26.2 mn USD last week.

The Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW) in the US experienced minor net outflows, totalling -4.4 mn USD last week.

In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) saw minor net inflows of +0.9 mn USD while the Bitwise Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) saw net inflows of around +20.4 mn USD on aggregate.

Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum have continued its positive trend last week, with around +28.0 mn USD in global net inflows.

Furthermore, thematic & basket crypto ETPs experienced net inflows of around +6.0 mn USD on aggregate last week. The Bitwise MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) had had sticky AuM (+/- 0 mn USD).

Global crypto hedge funds have maintained their market exposure to Bitcoin. The 20-days rolling beta of global crypto hedge funds' performance to Bitcoin consolidated to around 0.83 per yesterday's close.

On-Chain Data

Broadly speaking, Bitcoin's on-chain activity remained neutral throughout last week.

Selling pressure remains, as shown by our Chart-of-the-Week, as Bitcoin spot exchanges recorded approximately -$1.04 bn in net selling volumes.

In terms of Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), which measures the difference between buying and selling volume, the metric has been negative most of last week, indicating dominance of sell-side pressure.

A key contributor to this selling pressure appears to be increased profit-taking by short-term holders (those with holding periods under 155 days, typically less sophisticated investors) who recently broke even and are likely selling on exchanges as indicated by the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss ratio (currently at 0.01).

In terms of supply dynamics, we are observing a similar pattern. Whales have added bitcoins to exchanges on a net basis, indicating an increase in whale selling pressure. More specifically, BTC whales added +13,200 BTC on exchanges last week. Network entities that possess at least 1,000 Bitcoin are referred to as whales.

Based on recent data from Glassnode, while there was a significant revision in exchange-held Bitcoin (BTC) reserves data, the overall downward trend remains intact. The current level is 3.02 million coins, representing approximately 15.2% of the total circulating supply. Although this figure is higher than the previously reported 2.54 million coins (12.7% of supply), it still represents a continuation of the broader trend of Bitcoin moving off exchanges. This current level was last seen in January 2022, indicating that despite the data adjustment, the narrative of diminishing Bitcoin availability on exchanges remains valid.

We also notice that over 70.8% of Bitcoin circulating supply held by long term holders-underscoring strong conviction among long-term holders.

That being said, a measure of “apparent demand” for Bitcoin over the past 30 days has flipped positive since April 24 ^th 2025, reflecting an increase in demand.

Futures, Options & Perpetuals

Last week, BTC futures open interest decreased by around -4.3k BTC while perpetual open interest decreased by around -4.8k BTC.

BTC perpetual funding rates turned negative on Thursday and Friday last week, and remained negative yesterday, indicating a slightly bearish sentiment among traders in the perpetual futures market.

In general, when the funding rate is positive (negative), long (short) positions periodically pay short (long) positions, which is indicative of bullish (bearish) sentiment.

The BTC 3-months annualised basis decreased from around 7.0% p.a to around 6.2% p.a. averaged across various futures exchanges last week. BTC option open interest increased by around +6.3k BTC. The put-call open interest ratio had remained at 0.56 last week.

The 1-month 25-delta skew for BTC continued to drop last week, indicating a modest decrease in demand for put options and a slightly bullish market sentiment.

BTC option implied volatilities fluctuated last week, with 1-month realized volatility ending the week by decreasing by around -0.7%.

At the time of writing, implied volatilities of 1-month ATM Bitcoin options are currently at around 44.03% p.a.

Bottom Line

Bitcoin traded sideways last week, but institutional accumulation remained strong, with crypto ETPs recording almost $2.0 bn in inflows—$1.81 bn of that into Bitcoin alone. Schwab and Morgan Stanley advanced plans for spot crypto trading, while short-term holders drove profit-taking pressure that kept prices range-bound despite corporate and ETF purchases.
Crypto sentiment remained cautiously constructive, with our in-house Cryptoasset Sentiment Index showing a slightly bullish bias and improving fund flows. However, altcoin underperformance returned, risk appetite softened, and Ethereum trailed Bitcoin.
Chart of the Week: Short-term holders are selling into strength, as Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio hits break-even territory (0.01). Despite positive “apparent demand” and long-term conviction, net selling volumes exceeded $1 bn last week. Once cleared, this could set the stage for a renewed upside trend.

Appendix

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