La semana pasada, los criptoactivos tuvieron un rendimiento inferior debido a las importantes salidas de los ETP globales. El sentimiento siguió siendo profundamente bajista: nuestro Índice de Sentimiento de Criptoactivos alcanzó su nivel más bajo desde abril de 2025.
El bitcoin también siguió una vez más el rendimiento del oro. La clave para comprender esta discrepancia en el rendimiento reside en los diferentes factores macroeconómicos que influyen en ambos activos:
el oro tiende a ser más sensible a la política monetaria y a los movimientos del dólar estadounidense, mientras que el bitcoin se ve actualmente más influido por las expectativas de crecimiento mundial desde una perspectiva puramente cuantitativa.
En consecuencia, el rendimiento reciente del oro ya refleja el impacto de una política monetaria acomodaticia, mientras que la evolución de los precios del bitcoin sigue reflejando las moderadas expectativas de crecimiento.
Sin embargo, es importante señalar que los cambios en las expectativas de crecimiento mundial suelen ir por detrás de los cambios en la política monetaria.
Esto sugiere que el repunte del oro probablemente irá seguido, con el tiempo, de un repunte significativo del bitcoin.
Esto también podría explicar la divergencia actual entre los máximos históricos actuales de la oferta monetaria mundial y el precio del bitcoin.
Dicho esto, a pesar del rendimiento semanal negativo, septiembre sigue estando en camino de ser un mes muy positivo para el bitcoin este año, con alrededor de un 3,7 % en el momento de redactar este informe. Históricamente hablando, en promedio, septiembre tiende a ser el peor mes del año para el bitcoin (gráfico de la semana).
Además, el cuarto trimestre suele ser muy positivo para el bitcoin desde el punto de vista del rendimiento. Noviembre también suele ser el mejor mes del año.
Desde este punto de vista, la actual debilidad temporal podría ser una oportunidad interesante para aumentar la exposición al bitcoin y a las criptomonedas de cara a un cuarto trimestre estacionalmente alcista.
De hecho, parece que el mercado está a punto de tocar fondo.
La semana pasada, la confianza alcanzó dos veces niveles de «miedo extremo» en términos intradía, pero el bitcoin mostró una relativa resistencia, manteniéndose en torno a los 108 000 dólares, un nivel que también se alinea con la base de los costes de mantenimiento a corto plazo, lo que parece proporcionar un fuerte apoyo al bitcoin en este momento, ya que los vendedores están cada vez más agotados.
En general, entre las 10 principales criptomonedas, TRON, Bitcoin y XRP han tenido un rendimiento relativamente superior.
En conjunto, el rendimiento superior de las altcoins con respecto al bitcoin siguió siendo bajo la semana pasada, ya que solo el 15 % de las altcoins que supervisamos lograron superar al bitcoin en términos semanales. Ethereum también tuvo un rendimiento inferior al del bitcoin la semana pasada.
Nuestro «Índice de Sentimiento de Criptoactivos» interno siguió mostrando un sentimiento muy bajista. La semana pasada incluso alcanzó su nivel más bajo desde abril de 2025.
En este momento, 5 de los 15 indicadores están por encima de su tendencia a corto plazo.
La semana pasada, los flujos de entrada de Bitcoin Exchange y las métricas de Crypto Hedge Fund Beta mostraron un impulso positivo.
A pesar de nuestras lecturas bajistas del sentimiento, el Crypto Fear & Greed Index señala actualmente un nivel de sentimiento «neutral» a partir de esta mañana. No se trata de una divergencia significativa con respecto a nuestras lecturas, ya que el índice ha pasado la mayor parte del tiempo oscilando entre «neutral» y «miedo». La semana pasada alcanzó el nivel de «miedo extremo» dos veces en el intradía.
La dispersión del rendimiento entre los criptoactivos se mantuvo baja y estable, oscilando entre 0,28 y 0,32 la semana pasada, lo que indica que las altcoins siguieron estando muy correlacionadas con el rendimiento del bitcoin.
El rendimiento superior de las altcoins con respecto al bitcoin siguió siendo bajo la semana pasada, ya que solo alrededor del 15 % de las altcoins que seguimos lograron superar al bitcoin en términos semanales. Incluso el ethereum tuvo un rendimiento inferior al del bitcoin la semana pasada.
En general, el aumento (disminución) del rendimiento superior de las altcoins tiende a ser una señal de aumento (disminución) de la propensión al riesgo en los mercados de criptoactivos. Esto sigue indicando una propensión al riesgo moderada, aunque muestra una ligera mejora con respecto a las semanas anteriores.
El sentimiento en los mercados financieros tradicionales, medido por nuestro indicador interno de propensión al riesgo entre activos (CARA), se mantuvo prácticamente sin cambios con respecto a la semana anterior, con un ligero descenso de 0,78 a 0,71.
Los ETP de criptomonedas a nivel mundial registraron importantes salidas netas, lo que confirma aún más el sentimiento profundamente bajista de la semana pasada.
Los ETP globales sobre criptomonedas registraron unas salidas netas semanales de aproximadamente -1206,1 millones de dólares en todos los tipos de criptomonedas, tras los +1699,6 millones de dólares de la semana anterior.
La semana pasada, los ETP globales sobre Bitcoin registraron salidas netas por un total de -813,3 millones de dólares, de los cuales -902,5 millones de dólares correspondieron a entradas netas relacionadas con los ETF al contado sobre Bitcoin en Estados Unidos.
La semana pasada, el ETF Bitwise Bitcoin (BITB) en Estados Unidos registró salidas netas por un total de -92,4 millones de dólares.
En Europa, el Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) registró salidas netas equivalentes a -2,1 millones de dólares, mientras que el Bitwise Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) registró entradas netas menores de +0,3 millones de dólares.
El Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) registró salidas netas de -84,7 millones de dólares. Sin embargo, el iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) registró entradas netas de aproximadamente +173,9 millones de dólares la semana pasada.
Mientras tanto, los flujos hacia los ETP globales sobre Ethereum siguieron el ejemplo, con aproximadamente -492,2 millones de dólares en salidas netas.
Los ETF al contado estadounidenses sobre Ethereum también registraron salidas netas de aproximadamente -795,6 millones de dólares en total. El Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) registró salidas netas de -38,4 millones de dólares.
El Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW) en Estados Unidos también registró salidas netas de -78,3 millones de dólares.
En Europa, el Bitwise Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) registró salidas netas de -10,9 millones de dólares, mientras que el Bitwise Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) registró salidas netas menores de -0,8 millones de dólares.
Sin embargo, la semana pasada, los ETP de altcoins ex Ethereum registraron entradas netas de +174,1 millones de dólares.
Por otro lado, los ETP temáticos y de cesta registraron salidas netas de -74,7 millones de dólares en total la semana pasada. El ETP Bitwise MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 (DA20) registró salidas netas menores de -0,5 millones de dólares.
La semana pasada, la exposición global de los fondos de cobertura criptográficos al bitcoin aumentó. La beta móvil de 20 días del rendimiento de los fondos de cobertura criptográficos globales frente al bitcoin subió a alrededor de 0,62 al cierre de ayer, frente a 0,50 de la semana anterior.
El volumen de ventas al contado intradía siguió siendo negativo durante la semana, con volúmenes de ventas netos de alrededor de -870 millones de dólares en las bolsas de bitcoin al contado.
A pesar de ello, observamos un comportamiento opuesto por parte de las ballenas de Bitcoin (entidades que poseen al menos 1000 BTC), que continuaron retirando bitcoins de las bolsas de forma neta, lo que indica un aumento del HODLing de las ballenas. También es importante señalar que la tendencia de la semana pasada fue la más fuerte que hemos visto en nueve meses, acercándose a los niveles observados por última vez el 17 de diciembre de 2024. Más concretamente, la semana pasada las ballenas de BTC retiraron -47 220 BTC de las bolsas. Estos volúmenes podrían estar relacionados con transferencias internas dentro de las bolsas, pero sin duda son algo a tener en cuenta en las próximas semanas.
Además, según los datos recientes de Glassnode, la tendencia general a la baja de las reservas de Bitcoin mantenidas en las bolsas ha continuado. El nivel actual se sitúa en 2,883 millones de BTC, lo que representa aproximadamente el 14,47 % del suministro total en circulación, con una caída de 31 puntos básicos con respecto a la semana pasada.
Cabe señalar que la medida de 30 días de la «demanda aparente» de Bitcoin se ha mantenido positiva, pero se ha ralentizado en la última semana, lo que indica un estancamiento en la afluencia de tenedores a corto plazo.
En general, los parámetros on-chain apuntan a una tendencia sostenida de acumulación por parte de los grandes tenedores, lo que sugiere que el HODLing de las ballenas podría ayudar a amortiguar la presión de venta, incluso si la demanda a corto plazo se modera.
La semana pasada, el interés abierto de los futuros de BTC disminuyó en -10,0k BTC en todas las bolsas y disminuyó en -14,4k BTC en el CME. Mientras tanto, el interés abierto perpetuo disminuyó en aproximadamente -5,2k BTC.
La financiación perpetua del BTC se mantuvo positiva durante toda la semana pasada, lo que indica una continua propensión a las posiciones largas entre los operadores, aunque la tasa de financiación media descendió con respecto a la semana anterior.
En general, cuando la tasa de financiación es positiva (negativa), las posiciones largas (cortas) pagan periódicamente a las posiciones cortas (largas), lo que es indicativo de un sentimiento alcista (bajista).
La base anualizada de BTC a 3 meses cayó la semana pasada hasta alrededor del 6,8 % anual, como media en varias bolsas de futuros.
El interés abierto de las opciones de BTC disminuyó significativamente en alrededor de -134k BTC debido a los vencimientos trimestrales de las opciones, y la relación de interés abierto put-call disminuyó ligeramente de 0,63 a 0,61.
Mientras tanto, el sesgo delta a 25 meses del BTC disminuyó a lo largo de la semana de +15,4 % a +10,3 %, lo que indica una disminución del interés por las opciones de venta. Sin embargo, la presencia de un sesgo positivo sigue indicando una preferencia por la protección a la baja.
La volatilidad implícita de las opciones sobre BTC ha aumentado ligeramente con respecto a la semana pasada. En el momento de redactar este informe, la volatilidad implícita de las opciones de Bitcoin ATM a 1 mes es actualmente de alrededor del 31,8 % anual en Deribit, lo que supone un aumento de unos 158 puntos básicos.
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